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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.02.19 07:07z 158 Lines 8559 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18046_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 03 02
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/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@ZOHO.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125
PM CST Sat Feb 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the
Southeast and western Colorado today, and portions of California
mainly this afternoon through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will
continue moving across the Southeast today, reaching the Atlantic
Coast by this evening. Weak height falls and modest lift preceding
this feature may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of GA
and far northern FL into the coastal Carolinas mainly this morning
and early afternoon. With greater low-level moisture expected to
remain off the Atlantic Coast, weak instability remaining above a
near-surface stable layer will likely keep the majority of these
thunderstorms elevated.
A more amplified shortwave trough with cold mid-level temperatures
initially over the Great Basin may support very isolated lightning
strikes across portions of western CO this morning as it moves
eastward over the Rockies. Farther west, another shortwave trough
will move from the eastern Pacific over northern/central CA late
tonight as a large-scale closed upper low develops southward off
the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms may
occur across parts of these regions, perhaps beginning as early
as this afternoon and continuing through tonight as large-scale
lift preceding the shortwave trough overspreads CA. Instability
should gradually increase as mid-level temperatures slowly cool,
but meager low-level moisture should limit MUCAPE to generally
less than 500 J/kg. This weak instability will likely preclude an
organized severe threat.
..Gleason/Nauslar.. 02/03/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129
PM CST Sat Feb 02 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
Lower 48 states on Monday.
...Synopsis... The primary feature for convective activity on
Monday is a mid-level low and associated trough moving south
along the West Coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are possible over coastal central and northern CA and in the San
Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys. Forecast soundings over the CA
central valleys show meager buoyancy developing during the day.
Although a semi-organized/low-topped convective structure cannot be
ruled out during the afternoon, it appears the risk for a strong
storm does not necessitate low-severe probabilities at this time.
Elsewhere, a mid-level disturbance will quickly move across the
Great Lakes during the day. Scattered showers and weak convection
are possible over Lower MI and in an increasingly moist environment
in the east TX/western LA vicinity.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Smith.. 02/03/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sat Feb 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the
Intermountain West and the northern Plains on Sunday with enhanced
mid-level flow (50-80 knots) stretching from the southern California
coast out over the central Plains. A lee surface cyclone is expected
to develop over the central High Plains and track eastward along the
Kansas-Nebraska border. Strong cross-mountain flow will strengthen
lee troughing and downslope winds helping to warm/dry the boundary
layer across much of the central High Plains/vicinity on Sunday.
Elevated/locally critical conditions will develop across portions
of the central/southern High Plains with forecast west-southwest
surface winds of 15-30 mph and RH values of 12-25%. The strongest
winds will be along lee slopes of the Rockies and across portions
of northeast Colorado near the track of the surface low and greatest
pressure falls/gradient. Locally critical conditions are most likely
to develop in eastern Colorado and western, especially northwest,
Kansas where RH values of 12-20% will overlap with the aforementioned
stronger winds.
Fine fuels are receptive to fire ignition/spread with 10-hour dead
fuel moisture values of 5-10%, and two hot spots were detected in
the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles on Saturday afternoon with a confirmed
large fire near Beaver, OK. As previous outlooks have stated, minimum
RH values will be the limiting factor for critical conditions, but
strong winds and receptive fine fuels will increase the fire weather
threat on Sunday across portions of the central/southern High Plains.
..Nauslar.. 02/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Sun Feb 03 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Another large upper-level trough will impact the
West Coast on Monday with the previous shortwave trough continuing
to move eastward over the Great Lakes. This will leave a relative
minimum in the west/southwest mid-level flow (40-55 knots) over
the Rockies/High Plains on Sunday between the two aforementioned
troughs, but enough cross-mountain/downslope flow should result in
surface lee troughing again across the central/southern High Plains.
However, the lee troughing will be weaker than Sunday and struggle
against the cold air moving southward across the Plains behind the
previous surface cyclone.
Locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of
eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico/Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles
on Monday afternoon with westerly-southerly sustained winds of 10-20
mph with RH values of 15-25% expected across the area. However, with
weaker mid-level winds and surface temperatures about 5-10 F colder,
widespread elevated conditions are unlikely to occur. Even with the
absence of widespread elevated conditions, fuels will continue to
cure as dry/breezy conditions remain across the central/southern
High Plains.
..Nauslar.. 02/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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FORTUNE DISCUSSES THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN: #5
Trust:
The average woman would really like to be told if her mate is fooling
around behind her back. This same woman wouldn't tell her best friend if
she knew the best friends' mate was having an affair. She'll tell all her
OTHER friends, however. The average man won't say anything if he knows that
one of his friend's mates is fooling around, and he'd rather not know if his
mate is having an affair either, out of fear that it might be with one of
his friends. He will tell all his friends about his own affairs, though,
so they can be ready if he needs an alibi.
Driving:
A typical man thinks he's Mario Andretti as soon as he slips behind
the wheel of his car. The fact that it's an 8-year-old Honda doesn't keep
him from trying to out-accelerate the guy in the Porsche who's attempting
to cut him off; freeway on-ramps are exciting challenges to see who has
The Right Stuff on the morning commute. Does he or doesn't he? Only his
body shop knows for sure. Insurance companies understand this behavior,
and price their policies accordingly.
A woman will slow down to let a car merge in front of her, and get
rear-ended by another woman who was busy adding the finishing touches to
her makeup.
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