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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.02.19 16:25z 110 Lines 5620 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 13 01
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MD 0018 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WV...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN VA AND WESTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0018 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019
Areas affected...far southeast WV...portions of southern VA and
western NC
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 130315Z - 130815Z
SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow
and sleet at times, will continue for much of the overnight hours.
Freezing rain rates near 0.05 inches per 3 hours will result in
hazardous conditions as ice continues to accumulate into the early
morning hours.
DISCUSSION...Light to moderate freezing rain is ongoing across
portions of the central Appalachians this evening. Precipitation
rates have increased as 850mb frontogenesis has strengthened over
the area ahead of a shortwave impulse now ejecting across western
TN. In the low levels, surface temperatures are ranging from around
28 to 32 degrees F. The 850mb freezing line is draped across far
southern VA, indicating snow and possibly a snow/sleet mix is
possible across much of northern into central VA, transitioning to
freezing rain further south.
A warm nose of 0.2-3.0 C has been noted in 00z regional RAOBs as well
as in latest RAP forecast soundings. As a result, the predominant
precipitation type should remain freezing rain, though some sleet
could mix in and/or rain where surface temperatures hover near
32-33 degrees. These conditions, with freezing rain rates near 0.05
inches per 3 hours, should persist for much of the overnight hours,
leading to hazardous conditions as ice continues to accumulate.
..Leitman.. 01/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 36257906 35708031 35248156 35218226 35218256 35358272
35598262 36848161 37718112 37618065 37298039 37028040 36838016
36867961 37137905 37377844 37367793 37207774 36807801 36257906
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106
PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Some thunder potential will be noted across portions
of eastern North/South Carolina through early afternoon.
...Eastern NC/SC...
Strong mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern
GA then off the NC coast during the latter half of the period.
Along/north of this jet, large-scale ascent will be maximized ahead
of a notable short-wave trough that should eject across the southern
Appalachians around 18z. This feature should induce a surface
wave along a wedge front draped across coastal Carolinas early
and subsequent movement will be northeast ahead of the short wave
toward the northern Outer Banks region. Forecast soundings across
the eastern Carolinas suggest weak buoyancy will develop early in
the period as warm advection intensifies ahead of the deepening
surface wave. As a result, some thunder potential will be noted
with elevated convection that develops ahead of the strengthening
surface wave. Thunder threat will shift offshore during the early
afternoon hours as a cold front surges toward the coast.
..Darrow/Leitman.. 01/13/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114
PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous
United States on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive area of surface high
pressure centered over the mid MS Valley and southern Plains will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories across the Gulf of Mexico
and western Atlantic on Monday. Accordingly, thunderstorms are
not expected across the central/eastern CONUS due to insufficient
moisture.
An amplified upper trough/low should generally remain centered off
the coast of CA through much of the period. An embedded shortwave
trough is forecast to move eastward across southern CA and vicinity,
and precipitation will likely increase in coverage through the day
and into Monday night. Forecast soundings from both the GFS and NAM
continue to show minimal instability along the immediate CA Coast as
this precipitation occurs, although very isolated lightning strikes
cannot be completely ruled out over the adjacent nearshore waters.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Gleason.. 01/13/2019
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I can't understand it. I can't even understand the people who can understand
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-- Queen Juliana of the Netherlands.
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