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LU9DCE > ALERT 31.05.19 07:04z 183 Lines 10125 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25769_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 31 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<LU4ECL<CT1ENI<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 190531/0701Z 25769@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254
AM CDT Fri May 31 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...AND SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening across the Mid-Atlantic States, and from
eastern South Dakota east to Lower Michigan, where hail and locally
damaging winds will be the primary risks. A few severe storms
are also possible across west Texas into southeast New Mexico,
with large hail and damaging wind risk, along with potential for
a tornado or two.
...Synopsis... The large-scale upper pattern over North America
will remain stagnant today, with a large upper vortex -- comprised
of two smaller centers of circulation -- to remain over central
and eastern Canada while a trough/low remains over the West.
At smaller scales, a fast-moving disturbance initially over the mid
Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys will move quickly east-southeastward
across the Tennessee Valley toward the Carolinas/Virginia through
the day, and then to the Carolina/mid Atlantic coastal region by
the end of the period.
At the surface, a weak front will extend from the Carolinas southwest
to the central Gulf Coast region, and then westward across southern
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley area. Meanwhile, a second,
west-to-east cold front is forecast to sag southward across the
Great Lakes/northern Plains through the period.
...Southern Virginia into the Carolinas... A weak surface frontal
wave is forecast to linger over the North Carolina vicinity
today, as the aforementioned upper disturbance approaches from the
west-northwest. While largely west-southwesterly low-level flow will
keep the highest low-level dewpoints over the Gulf Stream, heating of
the more modestly moist boundary layer inland should result in 1000
to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across the region during the afternoon.
Moderate deep-layer west-southwest flow across the area should
promote some storm organization -- at the cellular level, and
with some upscale growth into west-to-east moving bands of storms.
In addition to some hail risk, locally damaging winds will likely
occur, before storms begin to weaken/move offshore through the
evening.
...Eastern South Dakota eastward into the southern Upper
Great Lakes area... Some destabilization is expected along the
southward-moving front through the afternoon, which should promote
development of scattered storms that should eventually evolve into
east-southeastward-moving clusters.
The fastest flow aloft is expected to remain north of the surface
front, with only modest shear near and south of the advancing
boundary. Still, locally damaging winds and hail will be possible
with the strongest of the convection, mainly from late afternoon
through mid evening.
...Eastern New Mexico into far west Texas and into the Pecos Valley
area... Model guidance continues to suggest fairly widespread
convective development beginning prior to the start of the period
and continuing through the morning, across the South Plains and
Pecos Valley and moving east-southeast across central Texas through
the day. While limited severe risk would be possible with this
convection, greater risk should occur later, as the combination of a
possibly southward-moving outflow from these storms, the cold front
in the vicinity of the Rio Grande, and easterly low-level upslope
flow, should all support isolated new storm development through the
afternoon hours. Though background short-wave ridging may limit
the number of storms, favorable shear is expected -- particularly
with southward extent, where stronger low-level southeasterlies
beneath moderate mid-level westerly flow will result in pronounced
veering with height. As such, a few supercells are expected --
with attendant risks for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly
a couple of tornadoes. Storms may grow upscale into clusters, and
spread eastward off the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico/far West
Texas, accompanied by some severe threat, before weakening overnight.
..Goss/Bentley.. 05/31/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0120 AM CDT Fri May 31 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KS
INTO SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...
CORRECTED FOR 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY LABEL
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are
possible Saturday afternoon across portions of central and eastern
Kansas, northern/central Missouri, southeast Iowa, and central
Illinois.
...Kansas into the Mid-MS Valley Vicinity eastward into Ohio...
An upper trough will develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes vicinity on Saturday, bringing enhanced northwesterly
deep-layer flow across much of the northern and central Plains
eastward across the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will dive
southward across the central Plains and Midwest, extending from
central OH west/southwest into central OK and the TX Panhandle.
Strong heating and seasonal boundary layer moisture ahead of the
front will result in plenty of instability and severe thunderstorms
are expected from central KS into northern/central MO, southeast IA
and northern/central IL. Additional strong to isolated severe storms
may extend eastward along the front across much of IN and OH as well.
A slight risk has been added across parts of KS into the mid-MS
Valley where richer boundary layer moisture and stronger surface
heating is anticipated. This will result in a moderately unstable
environment with steepening midlevel lapse rates with the approach
of the surface cold front. Scattered storms are expected to develop
during the afternoon and vertical shear will support supercells,
through upscale growth is likely given low level flow parallel
to the front. Long, straight hodographs and midlevel lapse rates
around 7.5-8 C/km will favor large hail. A deeply-mixed boundary
layer also will support some strong wind gusts, though midlevel
flow is not particularly strong.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Further west, an upper ridge over the central Rockies and southern
High Plains will shift eastward and a weak shortwave impulse will
eject across the southern Rockies. Southeasterly upslope flow will
result in modest moisture return across TX into the southern and
central High Plains. Diurnally driven convection timed with the
modest shortwave impulse will pose mainly an isolated large hail
concern.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Leitman.. 05/31/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Fri May 31 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis... Most of the CONUS will have moist low-levels on
Friday with wet thunderstorms expected in many areas. The exception
will be Arizona where a relatively dry low-level airmass will be
in place. However, a lack of significant surface winds and surface
relative humidities around 20 to 25 percent will preclude any fire
weather concern in the Southwest. In eastern Georgia and western
South Carolina, surface relative humidity is expected to drop to
around 25 percent in the afternoon with surface winds of 10 to 15
mph. While these conditions are only borderline elevated, this area
has seen abnormally hot conditions for several days with little
or no precipitation across the area. Therefore, an elevated fire
weather area has been highlighted from east central Georgia into
west central South Carolina.
..Bentley.. 05/31/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Fri May 31 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis... On Saturday, dry surface conditions will be
relegated to portions of Arizona with moist conditions and potential
thunderstorms for most of the CONUS. Despite the dry conditions
in Arizona, the fire weather concern is low considering the weak
surface winds.
Another area where the airmass will be locally dry is in southern
Georgia where precipitation has been minimal and temperatures
abnormally hot for the past week. In this area, surface winds are
expected to increase to the 10 to 15 mph range during the afternoon
with relative humidity dropping into the 20 to 25 percent range.
These meteorological conditions combined with dry fuels and hot
temperatures justify an elevated fire weather area across this
region on Saturday.
..Bentley.. 05/31/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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'Twas the nocturnal segment of the diurnal period
preceding the annual Yuletide celebration, And throughout our place
of residence,
Kinetic activity was not in evidence among the
possessors of this potential, including that species of domestic rodent
known as Mus musculus.
Hosiery was meticulously suspended from the forward
edge of the woodburning caloric apparatus,
Pursuant to our anticipatory pleasure regarding an
imminent visitation from an eccentric philanthropist among whose folkloric
appelations is the honorific title of St. Nicklaus ...
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