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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.06.19 07:03z 174 Lines 9495 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25971_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 03 06
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190603/0700Z 25971@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227
AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX TO
THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected Monday afternoon into the overnight hours across parts
of the Great Plains toward the southern Rockies. Large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts will be the main threats.
...Great Plains/Southern Rockies...
Large-scale pattern will change little during the upcoming day1
period as troughing remains established over the southwestern US
and broad ridging remains in place over the northern Gulf Basin.
Seasonally moist boundary layer has been drawn west across the Great
Plains and southern Rockies such that convection should once again
develop by early afternoon with minimal boundary-layer heating.
Aside from convective influences, it's not entirely clear if a
meaningful disturbance will emerge within southwesterly flow over
NM/CO that will enhance/support diurnally driven storms. Latest
model guidance suggests surface heating will contribute to robust
convective development between 19-21z off the higher terrain
from northern Mexico, north across NM into southeast CO. This
activity should propagate across the High Plains where abundant
moisture/buoyancy will prove supportive of organized convection.
Latest thinking is hail will be the primary severe risk as low-level
shear is a bit weak and LLJ is not particularly pronounced given the
lack of a notable short-wave trough. Even so, scattered strong/severe
storms should easily develop from the southern Black Hills region
south through the Big Bend of west TX.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 06/03/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101
AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NE/KS INTO SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO AND WEST-CENTRAL IL AS WELL
AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
parts of southeast New Mexico into far western Texas late Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe
weather across parts of the mid-Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valley
area on Tuesday. Damaging wind and hail will be the main concern
with these storms.
...Synopsis...
Challenging forecast scenario is evolving for Tuesday. The upper
trough over the southwestern U.S. will slowly begin to shift
eastward across AZ/NM with some mild enhancement of southwesterly
deep layer flow expected across the southern High Plains. Midlevel
ridging across the southern Plains will likely limit convection as
strong capping remains in place. Further west isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern NM into
adjacent western TX by early evening as ascent increases ahead of
the upper trough.
In northern stream flow, several weak impulses will track
east/southeast through westerly flow from the northern Plains to
the lower Ohio Valley vicinity by 12z Wednesday. At the surface,
a low will develop south/southeast across the Upper Midwest and a
cold front will push southward across ND and northwest MN by 00z,
and from western WI into eastern NE by 12z Wednesday. Rich boundary
layer moisture with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will
be in place from the Ozarks northward into MN/WI.
...Eastern NM into western TX...
Effective shear will remain modest across the High Plains until
later in the forecast period when the western trough beings to shift
east. Nevertheless, isolated to widely scattered strong to severe
storms are expected to develop in moist, upslope flow by early
evening. Steepening lapse rates and long, straight hodographs will
favor storms capable of large hail, though some strong gusts also
are possible. In the absence of a strong low level jet, upscale
growth appears limited, though thunderstorm clusters could persist
into the overnight hours.
...Upper Midwest to the mid-MO/mid-MS Valley vicinity...
Tuesday's forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection
during the morning. This convection will impact evolution of
afternoon severe potential, so have opted to not make any major
changes compared to prior Day 3 forecast given quite a bit of
uncertainty. A couple of lead shortwave impulses will migrate
through west/northwesterly midlevel flow during the afternoon and
could trigger convection across the Slight risk area if adequate
recovery occurs in the wake of morning storms. If this occurs,
severe thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging winds will be
possible and could focus along any outflow boundaries laid out
by morning convection. Low level flow will remain mostly veered,
through a tornado could be possible in the vicinity of a boundary
where low level SRH would be enhanced, though this too remains
uncertain. Further north, a cold front will drop southward across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the late afternoon
and evening. Storms are likely to develop along/ahead of the front
and could pose a threat for hail. The lead shortwave impulse will
be ill-timed with the frontal passage and this may hinder greater
severe potential as effective shear will remain limited. Regardless,
boundary layer moisture will remain more than adequate for moderate
to strong destabilization, and some upscale growth potential will
exist during the overnight hours from MN/WI southward through the
Slight risk area.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Leitman.. 06/03/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis... A persistent ridge is centered over the Plains with a
trough in the Southwest and the Northeast. A dry low-level airmass
will be in place over portions of the southeast and southwest
CONUS with some dry areas in the lowlands of the Inter-Mountain
West. Despite the dry conditions in the Southeast and areas of
moderate drought, the threat for large fires is low due to mostly
light winds across the area.
...Eastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico... A narrow corridor
of stronger mid-level flow is expected to move northward across the
Arizona/New Mexico border today above dry surface conditions. Some
of these stronger winds will mix to the surface as daytime heating
deepens the boundary layer. Expect winds to increase to 15 to 20
mph during the afternoon across this area with relative humidities
in the 8 to 13 percent range.
...North-Central Montana... Dry, downslope flow is expected to
develop in north-central Montana Monday afternoon. Grasses in this
area are mostly cured which could support large fire spread. This
was confirmed today as there were reports of a wildfire in the
Missouri Breaks. Relative humidity is expected to drop to around
20 percent with winds around 15 to 20 mph and temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s.
...The Columbia Basin.... Some dry and breezy conditions are
expected in the Columbia Basin today. While meteorological
conditions would likely support elevated fire weather concerns,
fuels in this area are mostly unsupportive of large fire spread at
this time. Therefore, no elevated area has been highlighted across
this region.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The pattern across the CONUS will start to progress
on Tuesday with the trough in the Northeast moving over the Atlantic
and the ridge over the center portion of the country moving into
the Southeast. This ridge in the Southeast will continue to
support above normal temperatures, but surface high pressure will
move offshore which will bring an end to offshore flow and allow
for much needed moisture return into the drought stricken area.
In the western CONUS, dry conditions are expected in most of the
lowlands west of the mid-level trough which will be centered near
the Four Corners. Locally elevated conditions will be possible
in north central Montana, the Columbia Basin, and portions of the
Southwest, but relatively weak winds (and marginal fuels in WA/OR)
will mostly preclude the threat for large fire spread.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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I get up each morning, gather my wits.
Pick up the paper, read the obits.
If I'm not there I know I'm not dead.
So I eat a good breakfast and go back to bed.
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