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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.06.19 10:25z 183 Lines 10249 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 04 06
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241
AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND NM/WEST TX...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon
and evening from the middle to upper Mississippi Valley. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of eastern New
Mexico into far western Texas. Damaging wind and hail will be the
main threats.
...Discussion...
Large-scale pattern will remain seasonally weak as split-flow regime
is expected to persist through the day1 period. Latest model guidance
is not particularly helpful regarding the influence of weak short
waves, though deep convection will likely evolve across much of the
CONUS due to weak CINH and steep lapse rates. Latest thinking is
two areas may experience a greater concentration of thunderstorms,
some potentially severe: 1) Mid/Upper MS Valley and 2) NM/West TX.
1) Late-evening models suggest a weak short-wave trough will
dig east-southeast across the Dakotas toward the upper Great
Lakes region by late afternoon. This feature is likely related
to the ongoing MCS over central ND. Remnant MCV should progress
east-southeast at roughly 25kt tonight and should encourage renewed
convection by early-mid afternoon downstream over the upper MS
Valley as boundary layer warms and low-level lapse rates steepen.
Low-level flow is not particularly strong across this region but
robust convection is expected as modest cloud-bearing shear should
support some organization.
2) Another convectively active day is expected over the higher
terrain from northern Mexico into southern NM ahead of a pronounced
but seasonally weak short-wave trough. Strong boundary-layer heating
is expected to prove instrumental in thunderstorm development within
southwesterly-flow regime. This activity, much like Sunday/Monday,
should propagate toward the southern High Plains with an attendant
threat for large hail and isolated severe wind gusts.
3) A few strong storms may develop across the southeastern US
within modest northwesterly mid-level flow across portions of
SC/GA/FL. Weak surface boundary should focus convection as strong
boundary-layer heating removes inhibition across this region. Latest
guidance suggests a weak wind shift should extend along the GA/FL
border which will result in onshore flow north of the boundary
across GA. Forecast soundings suggest a few weak supercells may
evolve across this region which could produce hail/wind.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 06/04/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221
AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, accompanied by at least some
risk for severe hail and wind, are possible Wednesday across parts of
the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic
Coast region. Additional strong thunderstorms are possible across
parts of the southern High Plains.
...Synopsis... Stronger mid-latitude westerlies will remain
confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada
through this period. While trending more zonal near the eastern
international border area, models indicate some amplification of
troughing, across parts of the northeast Pacific into the Pacific
Northwest, and downstream ridging, across the northern U.S. Plains
and Canadian Prairies, Wednesday through Wednesday night.
As this occurs, troughing and an embedded closed low, within
much weaker westerlies emanating from the southern mid-latitude
and subtropical eastern Pacific, appear likely to emerge from the
Southwest, gradually accelerating across the southern Rockies into
the southern Plains by late Wednesday night. This likely will
contribute to suppression of downstream mid/upper ridging across
the western Gulf Coast region. But it appears that a perturbation
emerging from the Bay of Campeche will remain southeast of the
western Gulf Coast region, while tracking around the northern
periphery of the weakening subtropical high.
...Lower Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic Coast... Mid to upper
westerlies may be broadly confluent across much of the region
Wednesday. However, models indicate that several perturbations
(perhaps convectively generated or enhanced) will progress through
lingering broadly cyclonic lower/mid tropospheric flow. These may
be accompanied by 30-40 kt westerly speed maxima within the 850-500
mb layer, which will enhance vertical shear and may contribute to
potential for organized clusters of storms as a seasonably moist
boundary layer destabilizes with daytime heating.
Mixed-layer CAPE generally on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg is
expected, and may provide support for thunderstorms capable
of producing severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.
While convective evolution remains unclear, there appears at least
some consensus that severe weather potential may commence with
intensification of early period thunderstorm activity initially
over the lower Ohio Valley, before spreading across and east of the
central Appalachians during the day. An outflow boundary trailing
in its wake may provide the focus for renewed strong/severe storm
development, and east-southeastward propagation, across portions
of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky.
...Southern High Plains... Lingering low-level moisture and
daytime heating, coupled with steepening lapse rates associated
with mid-level cooling, are expected to contribute to favorable
thermodynamic profiles for thunderstorm development capable of
producing at least marginally severe hail and wind by late Wednesday
afternoon. Although lower/mid tropospheric wind fields may be rather
weak, 50-70 kt southwesterly flow at high levels (300-250 mb) may
contribute to sufficient deep layer shear for isolated supercells.
Stronger activity may become capable of producing relatively
cool outflow, with potential for upscale growing clusters with
consolidating and strengthening cold pools, accompanied by a risk
for strong surface gusts through late Wednesday evening across
parts of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Kerr.. 06/04/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis... A rex block continues over the CONUS with the
cutoff low now centered over southern Arizona. This pattern has
led to numerous thunderstorms across much of the western CONUS
for the past week. Therefore, fuels are moist across most of the
CONUS with the exception of southern Arizona, the northern Plains
and the Southeast. A return to onshore flow and an expectation for
thunderstorms in the Southeast on Tuesday should start to moisten
fuels across that region with even more rainfall expected as the
week progresses.
A low-level dry airmass is expected in Arizona, the Columbia Basin
and northern Montana. Winds are expected to stay light (less than
15 mph) in the Southwest which alleviates any concern for large
fire spread. Meteorological conditions may reach or even exceed
elevated criteria in portions of the Columbia Basin (10 percent RH
and around 15 mph winds), but fuels do not quite support large fire
spread at this time.
In northern Montana, downslope flow is expected to develop with
afternoon relative humidity dropping below 15 percent and winds
increasing to 15 to 20 mph. This area has not seen much precipitation
in the past week, and finer fuels are cured. Therefore, a small
elevated fire weather area has been added.
..Bentley.. 06/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis... On Wednesday, thunderstorms are expected across
most of the central Rockies. Dry surface conditions may develop in
eastern Montana and western North Dakota and in southern Arizona
and New Mexico. In eastern Montana and northwest North Dakota, a
very dry airmass is expected to move in behind a cold front moving
through the area. While the post-frontal airmass may have relative
humidities in the 10 to 15 percent range, winds are expected to
stay mostly below 15 mph. Therefore, no elevated delineation was
drawn for this area.
In the Southwest, a dry airmass will remain in place with increasing
winds during the afternoon as the boundary layer deepens. These
winds are expected to increase to the 15 to 20 mph range. Elevated
fire weather concern has been highlighted across this area, but
eastern portions of the delineation in southwest New Mexico may
need to be trimmed based off potential rainfall on Day 1/Tuesday.
..Bentley.. 06/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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