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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.06.19 07:05z 146 Lines 8013 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26250_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 07 06
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<DB0EEO<DB0GOS<ON0AR<GB7CIP<GB7YEW<
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Sent: 190607/0700Z 26250@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111
AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MT...NORTHWEST SD AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ND...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely late Friday
afternoon and evening across parts of the western/central Dakotas,
southeastern Montana, and northeastern Wyoming, accompanied by
a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms developing
across the central High Plains and Southeast may also pose a risk
for isolated damaging winds and hail.
...Northern Plains Vicinity...
A strong shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern
Rockies today. This will bring a belt of 60-80 kt southwesterly
midlevel flow across much of WY into eastern MT and the western
Dakotas. At the surface, low-level moisture will stream northward on
strong southerly 850mb wind and dewpoints will reach the upper 50s
to low 60s from far eastern MT/northeast WY into the Dakotas. As
temperatures aloft cool, lapse rates will increase and a corridor
of weak to moderate buoyancy will develop by peak heating across
parts of the northern High Plains. A surface trough will develop
southward through the Dakotas and into the northern/central High
Plains vicinity as a cold front shifts eastward across MT during
the afternoon and into the Dakotas overnight. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the afternoon in strong convergence
along the surface boundary, and in increasing deep-layer ascent as
the shortwave trough approaches, in the vicinity of the Big Horn
mountains in northeast WY toward southeast MT and adjacent portions
of the western Dakotas by late afternoon. This high-based convection
will likely pose a threat for large hail given long, straight
forecast hodographs above some modest low level SRH. Additionally,
strong effective shear greater than 45 kt will support sustained,
organized convection.
With time, isolated cells are expected to grow upscale into a
bowing segment as a southwesterly low-level jet increases after
00z. This will increase damaging wind potential as the bow tracks
northeast across far northwest SD into southwest and central ND
during the evening and nighttime hours. Multiple forecast guidance
ranging from CAMs to NAM/GFS/ECMWF/RAP is consistent in developing
an organized bowing segment, and confidence in a swath of damaging
winds has increased such that an Enhanced risk has been included.
...Southeastern U.S. Vicinity...
A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will reside across the
southeastern U.S. as the Plains shortwave trough shifts eastward.
Pockets of greater instability and lapse rates will coincide with
modest deep-layer shear on the order of 25-35 kt and PW values
around 1.5-2 inches. This could lead to a few strong wind gusts in
better organized convection. Additionally, a corridor of stronger
0-3 km SRH greater than 150 m2/s2 will overspread parts of GA and
the Carolinas as the remnants of the Gulf of Mexico subtropical
low shifts east across the area. Given mean mixing ratios greater
than 15 g/kg and modest low level shear in this area, a brief,
weak tornado can not be ruled out.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Isolated storms are expected during the afternoon and early evening
along a weak surface trough and modest upslope flow. Strong heating
and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak destabilization
with MLCAPE has high as 1500 J/kg. Weak deep-layer shear will limit
storm longevity/organization but a few stronger storms could produce
marginal hail and gusty winds.
..Leitman/Dean.. 06/07/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151
PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible
Saturday from the upper Mississippi Valley to northwest Texas. A few
strong storms are also possible across portions of the southeastern
US.
...Plains...
Modest mid-level height falls are expected to spread across the
northern Plains during the day2 period ahead of a pronounced trough
that should advance to the ND/SD border by 09/00z. Associated surface
front is forecast to surge well ahead of stronger flow aloft (~200
mi) to a position from the northwest MN-central NE-northeast CO by
late afternoon. While large-scale forcing for ascent will overspread
the northern Plains region, surface-based heating along the wind
shift will prove instrumental in convective development given the
significant lagging of forcing aloft. Latest thinking is a narrow
zone of boundary-layer heating will aid the prospect for robust
frontal convection, through some of this activity may actually be
slightly elevated in nature behind the wind shift. More isolated
activity could develop along the dry line into the TX South Plains
where strong heating and minimal forcing are expected. Given the
lagging deep-layer shear/forcing, will maintain 5% severe probs
along the front/dry line for the possibility for hail/wind during
the late afternoon/evening hours.
...Southeast...
Weak southern-strong trough will progress slowly east across the
central Gulf States/northern Gulf basin through the period. Modest
mid-high level flow will be noted within the base of the trough into
northern FL ahead of this feature which may enhance organizational
potential of the most robust convection. Latest short-range model
guidance suggests considerable amount of showers/thunderstorms
ahead of the trough and this will greatly limit boundary layer
heating/destabilization due to weak lapse rates. Even so, gusty
winds could accompany more organized activity from northern FL into
southern GA where shear is forecast to be a bit stronger.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Darrow.. 06/07/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126
AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of
Texas Sunday. Hail and wind are the primary risks.
...Texas...
Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject across the Plains
into the Great Lakes by the end of the day3 period. This feature
will encourage surface pressure rises across the Rockies/Plains such
that a pronounced cold front will surge south across the Plains into
northwest TX early in the period. While stronger mid-level flow will
struggle to extend south of KS, and weak height rises are forecast,
strong boundary-layer heating ahead of the front is expected from
the Big Bend to central TX. Surface temperatures could soar to near
90F by early afternoon ahead of the wind shift but CINH will likely
be present until late afternoon across the Hill Country. Frontal
forcing may aid robust convection that should propagate south,
primary west of I-35. Initial activity will likely be elevated in
nature but hail/wind are possible if this activity can organize.
..Darrow.. 06/07/2019
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Indifference will be the downfall of mankind, but who cares?
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