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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.06.19 10:18z 210 Lines 11790 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26314_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 08 06
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<XE1FH<LU9DCE
Sent: 190608/1016Z 26314@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102
AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST KS AND EAST-CENTRAL CO AS WELL AS PARTS
OF FAR EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening from eastern North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota into the central Plains. Damaging wind gusts and large
hail will be the main threats with these storms. Additional strong
storms could produce some strong gusts across parts of the Southeast.
...Eastern Dakotas into Western Minnesota...
A potent shortwave trough will shift east from the northern
Rockies toward the northern and central Plains today. Midlevel
southwesterly flow of 35-50 kt will overspread eastern ND into
western MN by early afternoon as a surface cold front advances
eastward across the Dakotas. Moderate southerly surface to 850 mb
flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints ahead of the front while
temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s. This will result
in a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front and
vigorous thunderstorm development is expected by late morning/early
afternoon across the eastern Dakotas. There is some potential that
storms could become undercut by the cold front, given generally
boundary-parallel deep-layer flow. The best chance for organized,
potentially forward-propagating cluster appears to be over parts
of northeast ND into northwest MN where stronger effective shear
and modest 0-3km SRH will foster better organized structures.
Steep low-level lapse rates and 35-45 kt flow at the top of a
well-mixed sub-cloud layer will support severe, locally damaging
wind gusts. Some hail is also possible, especially early in storm
evolution when semi-discrete high-based supercells and clusters are
more likely before a transition to a more linear storm mode. Storms
will track eastward through the evening before weakening across
central MN into northwest IA where forcing for ascent and effective
shear diminishes and inhibition increases.
...Central Plains to the Southern High Plains Vicinity...
Deep-layer shear will be somewhat weaker than further north where the
influence of the shortwave trough will be greater. That being said,
effective shear will increase to around 35 kt during the afternoon
and evening as the surface cold front surges southward across the
central High Plains during the late afternoon/evening hours. A weak
surface low will develop across southeast CO with a dryline extending
south/southwest from southwest KS toward southwest TX. Low-level
flow will be more southeasterly than further north and will maintain
low to mid 60s dewpoints ahead of the cold front and east of the
dryline. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will
result in strong destabilization in a corridor from far eastern CO
into western KS and central NE. Widely scattered storms are expected
to develop along the cold front toward the triple point in eastern
CO. Vertical shear will support high-based supercells capable of
large hail. Steep low-level lapse rates will aid in damaging wind
potential, especially as a weakness in midlevel flow will tend
to favor outflow-dominant cells. With time, as a low-level jet
increases, some upscale growth into one or more bowing segments
is possible during the evening hours. If this occurs, this could
increase damaging-wind potential further.
More isolated/marginal storms are possible southward along the
dryline. Strong instability amid weak deep-layer shear will support
briefly intense updrafts and a few storms could produce hail or
strong gusts.
Elevated storms also are possible across parts of northeast CO
into southeast WY on the cool side of the cold front. These storms
generally will be a hail concern, though some strong gusts are
possible given strong shear and strong background low level winds
in the vicinity of the sharpening baroclinic zone.
...Southeastern US...
Another day of high PW from 1.75 to over 2 inches is expected as the
upper trough over the central U.S. continues to weaken as it meanders
eastward. A band of relatively greater southwesterly midlevel flow
will overspread parts of the northern Gulf Coast into FL/GA. This
could result in a few strong gusts as numerous storms develop in
a strongly unstable environment supportive of wet downbursts.
..Leitman/Dean.. 06/08/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218
AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO TX...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of
south-central OK into Texas Sunday. Hail and wind are the primary
risks.
...South-central OK/TX...
Northern Rockies short-wave trough is forecast to progress into the
High Plains Sunday where it should flatten heights as far south as
KS during the overnight hours. Latest model guidance continues to
suggest a pronounced surface anticyclone will build southeast across
the northern inter-mountain region before settling into eastern
CO by 10/12z. Sharp but shallow cold front will surge across the
TX Panhandle/western OK early in the period which will force the
steepest low-level lapse rates to occur from the Big Bend-Edwards
Plateau-DFW region. While surface temperatures will soar through the
90s across TX ahead of the front, latest thinking is convection will
likely initiate atop the surging cold front across central OK early
in the period. This activity should propagate south during the day
toward an environment that will be quite warm and unstable. Will
maintain 5% severe probs for a possible complex of elevated storms
that could eventually become near-surface based by late afternoon.
If this complex eventually ingests boundary-layer air mass then a
potentially more significant hail/wind event may evolve that would
require higher severe probs. However, it's not clear convection
will truly root into more moist/unstable air within an otherwise
weakly forced environment.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
- Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Darrow.. 06/08/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145
AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected
Monday.
...Discussion...
Northern Rockies short-wave trough is forecast to advance across
the Plains during the day2 period then progress across the OH
Valley/lower Great Lakes region Monday night. In response to this
trough, a notable surface front will surge to a position from
ON-eastern OH-TN-AL by 18z, then to near the Middle Atlantic
Coast by daybreak Tuesday. Latest guidance suggests convection
will be ongoing along the wind shift ahead of the short wave at
the start of the period. Additionally, scattered convection will
likely be ongoing beneath a weakening low-latitude trough extending
across the southeast. Extensive clouds and precipitation will limit
destabilization and poor lapse rates will prove difficult for robust
updrafts to develop across this region.
Farther west, dominant surface high will force a cold front off
the TX Coast, arcing across northern Mexico into eastern AZ. It
appears low-level moisture will struggle to spread west of the higher
terrain across NM/AZ and any convection that develops across this
region should remain weak.
..Darrow.. 06/08/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY/VICINITY...
...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to move from the interior
Northwest into the Northern Plains today. In the wake of the trough,
a seasonably strong surface ridge will settle into the Northwest
and Great Basin, leading to a period of offshore flow across much
of California.
...Sacramento Valley/Northern San Joaquin Valley/Bay Area...
Within the offshore flow regime, warm/dry/breezy conditions are
expected across the Sacramento Valley and surrounding parts of the
San Joaquin valley and Bay Area. Poor overnight recovery will lead
to a quick onset (or continuation) of elevated conditions this
morning. Critical conditions may develop by late this morning or
this afternoon across portions of the Sacramento Valley and the
higher terrain surrounding the Bay Area, as RH values drop to near
or below 15% and sustained winds approach 20 mph with higher gusts.
Poor overnight RH recovery is expected, and elevated conditions
may persist into Sunday morning across some areas.
While fuels are generally marginal across the region, finer fuels
are sufficiently cured to support a threat of fire spread, so the
critical delineation has been maintained across the Sacramento
Valley and vicinity.
..Dean.. 06/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Northern High Plains on
Sunday morning will move eastward into the Upper Midwest through
the day, while a weak upper ridge builds into the Southwest. At
the surface, a seasonably strong cold front will sweep through the
central/southern Plains, with an expansive ridge building into the
High Plains in the wake of the front. Offshore flow will result
in another dry, warm, and breezy day across much of California and
the Southwest.
...Sacramento Valley and Vicinity... Low-level flow should weaken
on Sunday across the Sacramento Valley and vicinity, as the pressure
gradient relaxes across that portion of California. However, with
poor overnight RH recovery, elevated conditions may be ongoing Sunday
morning across some areas, with a larger region experiencing elevated
conditions by late morning/early afternoon as RH values drop below
15% as sustained winds remain in the 15-20 mph range. Winds should
continue to decrease by late afternoon into the evening, though
poor overnight RH recovery is again expected into Monday morning.
..Dean.. 06/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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... But if we laugh with derision, we will never understand. Human
intellectual capacity has not altered for thousands of years so far as we
can tell. If intelligent people invested intense energy in issues that now
seem foolish to us, then the failure lies in our understanding of their
world, not in their distorted perceptions. Even the standard example of
ancient nonsense -- the debate about angels on pinheads -- makes sense once
you realize that theologians were not discussing whether five or eighteen
would fit, but whether a pin could house a finite or an infinite number.
-- S. J. Gould, "Wide Hats and Narrow Minds"
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