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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.06.19 07:05z 161 Lines 9048 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 12 06
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...MO/AR
VICINITY...AND FAR WEST TX...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible today across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into
the Southeast and coastal Carolinas, Missouri/Arkansas vicinity,
and far west Texas. Marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds
should be the main threats.
...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast and Coastal Carolinas...
An upper trough will amplify across the MS Valley into the OH/TN
Valleys today as a mid-level jet rotates around the base of this
trough. At the surface, a weak low will gradually deepen over the
OH/TN Valleys as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough
overspreads this region. Higher theta-e airmass initially confined
to parts of eastern AL into GA should advect northward into parts
of KY/TN by the afternoon ahead of a weak surface trough/front.
Thunderstorms will likely develop by late afternoon along/ahead of
this boundary across central KY into middle TN in a weakly unstable
environment. Strengthening mid-level flow should support 30-40 kt of
effective bulk shear across this region, and isolated strong/gusty
winds could occur.
Farther south into eastern AL and GA, instability should be somewhat
greater to the south of a remnant front, due to increased low-level
moisture and the opportunity for stronger diurnal heating through the
day. Forecast soundings from the NAM/RAP show an inversion centered
around 700-650 mb that persists through much of the afternoon before
eventually eroding as ascent attendant to the mid/upper-level
jet overspreads this region. Strong/gusty winds appear to be the
primary threat with mainly multicell thunderstorm clusters across
this region, although marginally severe hail may also be possible.
A coastal low will develop northeastward across the eastern Carolinas
this evening and overnight in tandem with a strengthening low-level
jet. A very moist low-level airmass is forecast to be in place
along the immediate coast. Strong low- and mid-level winds will
support updraft rotation with any storms that can develop in this
region and remain along/south of the coastal front. Gusty winds
and a brief tornado or two will be possible.
...MO/AR Vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by
the early afternoon across much of MO/AR and vicinity beneath
a northwesterly mid-level jet and related ascent. The strongest
winds will be over AR, and marginally severe hail may occur with the
most robust cores as mid-level temperatures will be quite cool. As
low-level lapse rates modestly steepen, isolated strong/gusty
downdraft winds may also develop.
...Far West TX... A weak low should develop across far west TX ahead
of a cold front moving southward across the southern Plains. Weak
easterly low-level flow with mid 50s to lower 60s surface dewpoints
may encourage very isolated convective initiation across the Davis
Mountains and vicinity by peak afternoon heating. Overall convective
coverage remains in question across this region, but hail/gusty
winds could occur with any storm that forms.
...OR... A weak shortwave trough will move northward across
northern CA into OR today and erode upper ridging centered over
the western CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop over
the Cascades in central OR before subsequently spreading eastward
into the evening. A well mixed/dry boundary layer may encourage
very isolated strong/gusty downdraft winds, but generally weak flow
through mid levels is expected to limit storm organization.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 06/12/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220
AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across the upper
Ohio Valley into the central Appalachian region. Isolated severe
may also occur across the central and southern High Plains into
the Big Bend of Texas.
...OH Valley/Central Appalachians...
Strong height falls are forecast to spread across the OH
Valley/central Appalachians during the day2 period in response to a
pronounced short-wave trough. Latest model guidance suggests a 500mb
speed max will intensify to near 70kt as it translates through the
base of the trough into the Delmarva by 14/00z. Bi-modal surface low
will evolve ahead of this feature with the lead coastal low expected
to lift into southern New England by afternoon. While convection will
spread into New England ahead of this lead wave, forecast buoyancy
is not expected to be particularly significant and the threat of
severe should remain low. However, in its wake, primary cold front
should surge across the OH Valley providing low-level convergence
necessary for potential robust convection. Latest thinking is
a narrow corridor of surface heating should be noted ahead of
the front from WV into OH/western PA. Forecast soundings suggest
convective temperatures will be reached by 18z as temperatures warm
through the mid 60s. Strong westerly flow may enhance convective
wind threat with this activity, along with marginally severe hail.
...High Plains...
Low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen across the High
Plains along back side of continental surface anticyclone. Latest
guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will eject across CO/NM
early in the period, which should aid elevated convection along
western periphery of retreating surface high. While this activity
could produce some hail, surface heating across NM/CO should prove
instrumental in isolated severe thunderstorm development later in
the afternoon. This late-day activity could produce hail/wind as
it propagates slowly east across the High Plains.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Darrow.. 06/12/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis... ...Pacific Northwest...
The western upper ridge will break down and shift eastward toward
the Rockies and Four Corners region as a shortwave trough develops
southward along the Pacific coast today. Midlevel lapse rates will
steepen as the trough deepens and strong heating will result in
isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon into
the nighttime hours. PW values are generally forecast to be less
than 0.75 inches and will support dry thunderstorm modes despite
modest boundary-layer moisture and slow storm motion. Where fuels
are adequately dry, a few ignitions are possible. Additionally,
hot temperatures and low RH values will continue across much of CA
into OR and eastern WA. This will continue to dry fuels across the
region ahead of a cold front shifting south/southeastward overnight.
However, in the absence of stronger boundary-layer winds, overall
potential will remain limited to those areas where lightning strikes
over dry fuels occur.
...MS/AL...
Seasonally warm temperatures are expected across portions of the
southern U.S. today. An upper trough will shift eastward across
the eastern half of the CONUS as high surface pressure builds
south and east across the Plains. Boundary-layer moisture will
be limited across parts of MS/AL as a cold front remains offshore
across the central Gulf of Mexico and continental trajectories aid
in dry conditions. RH values will fall into 25-40 percent range,
but light west winds around 5-10 mph and recent rainfall will
preclude fire weather concerns.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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