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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.05.25 09:24z 671 Lines 19087 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2839_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-MAY25
Path: HB9ON<DK0WUE<PI8ZTM<PI8LAP<GB7BED<GB7YEW<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 250516/0730Z 2839@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 258
WW 258 TORNADO MI LE LH 160330Z - 160900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1130 PM
UNTIL 500 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A WELL-ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AS IT MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAD AXE MI TO 35
MILES SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR MI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 256...WW 257...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
...GLEASON
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 257
WW 257 TORNADO IN MI LM 160130Z - 160700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA
FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 930 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES, SCATTERED
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE ONGOING CLUSTER, AND LARGE HAIL WITH
ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST OF BENTON HARBOR MI TO 90
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH BEND IN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 253...WW 255...WW 256...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...GLEASON
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 256
WW 256 TORNADO MI LM 160020Z - 160700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE POSING A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS. PEAK GUSTS
MAY REACH UP TO 70-80 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE
LINE OF CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH OF TRAVERSE CITY MI TO
10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KALAMAZOO MI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...WW 253...WW
254...WW 255...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...GLEASON
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 258 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0258 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0258 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 257 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0257 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LAF
TO 10 NNE BEH.
..WEINMAN..05/16/25
ATTN...WFO...IND...IWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC017-039-049-053-069-085-087-099-103-113-141-169-183-160340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS ELKHART FULTON
GRANT HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE MARSHALL MIAMI
NOBLE ST. JOSEPH WABASH
WHITLEY
MIC021-027-149-160340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN CASS ST. JOSEPH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 256 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0256 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 256
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE AZO
TO 20 SW LAN TO 35 NNW LAN TO 45 W MBS TO 35 ESE MBL TO 55 W PLN.
..SPC..05/16/25
ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC009-011-025-029-031-035-037-039-045-047-051-057-065-069-073-
075-079-113-129-137-143-160540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTRIM ARENAC CALHOUN
CHARLEVOIX CHEBOYGAN CLARE
CLINTON CRAWFORD EATON
EMMET GLADWIN GRATIOT
INGHAM IOSCO ISABELLA
JACKSON KALKASKA MISSAUKEE
OGEMAW OTSEGO ROSCOMMON
LHZ363-160540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 255 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0255 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 255
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S DEC TO
35 SE RAC.
..WEINMAN..05/16/25
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 255
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC019-023-029-035-041-045-053-075-091-139-147-173-183-160240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMPAIGN CLARK COLES
CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR
FORD IROQUOIS KANKAKEE
MOULTRIE PIATT SHELBY
VERMILION
INC007-073-089-111-127-160240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER LAKE
NEWTON PORTER
LMZ743-744-745-777-779-160240-
CW
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0254 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 254
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ORF TO
25 ENE RZZ TO 40 NNW AVC TO 10 SSW SHD.
..SPC..05/16/25
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...LWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 254
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-055-160140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT DARE
VAC003-007-015-029-041-049-053-065-075-079-085-087-109-135-137-
145-147-149-165-183-540-570-660-670-730-760-790-820-160140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE AMELIA AUGUSTA
BUCKINGHAM CHESTERFIELD CUMBERLAND
DINWIDDIE FLUVANNA GOOCHLAND
GREENE HANOVER HENRICO
LOUISA NOTTOWAY ORANGE
POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE
ROCKINGHAM SUSSEX
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 253 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0253 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S RAC TO
20 SSE IMT.
..WEINMAN..05/16/25
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...ARX...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 253
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC029-160240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DOOR
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0252 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 252
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LIT
TO 25 W ARG TO 35 SSW FAM.
..THORNTON..05/15/25
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-037-055-063-067-075-093-111-121-145-147-152240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CROSS
GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
LAWRENCE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT
RANDOLPH WHITE WOODRUFF
KYC039-075-105-152240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARLISLE FULTON HICKMAN
MOC023-069-133-143-155-181-207-223-152240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 251 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0251 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 251
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LSE
TO 30 N LSE TO 25 WSW EAU TO 20 ESE STC TO 25 NNW STC TO 15 E DTL.
..THORNTON..05/15/25
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ARX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 251
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-003-009-021-025-035-059-065-095-097-115-153-159-152240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN ANOKA BENTON
CASS CHISAGO CROW WING
ISANTI KANABEC MILLE LACS
MORRISON PINE TODD
WADENA
WIC003-005-007-013-017-019-031-033-035-051-053-081-095-099-107-
109-113-119-129-152240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
BURNETT CHIPPEWA CLARK
DOUGLAS DUNN EAU CLAIRE
IRON JACKSON MONROE
POLK PRICE RUSK
ST. CROIX SAWYER TAYLOR
WASHBURN
READ MORE
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SPC MD 801
MD 0801 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 160247Z - 160445Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS WITH AN MCS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION...A NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED MCS IS ADVANCING EASTWARD AT
AROUND 40-50 KT ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI -- WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 70 MPH. AROUND 40-50 KT OF LINE-ORTHOGONAL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (PER GRR/DTX VWP DATA), AND MIDDLE 60S
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEEP/INTENSE
UPDRAFTS ALONG THE LEADING-EDGE GUST FRONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION
FOR THIS WELL-ESTABLISHED SYSTEM TO BE MAINTAINED WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MI, POSING A CONTINUED RISK OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO, A
DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 05/16/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42118438 42458436 43978453 44688443 44848404 44738345
44378298 43368272 42498281 42028312 41808366 41798415
42118438
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 16, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. TORNADOES,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM THE THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS.
...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS, WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A 500 MB JET IS ANALYZED FROM THE
OZARKS INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO THE EAST
OF THE BOUNDARY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. MLCAPE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE FROM NEAR 2000 J/KG IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TO
ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN WESTERN INDIANA. AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS, A
LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. FURTHER SOUTH,
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY FROM SOUTH OF CHICAGO SOUTHWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CONVECTION OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE MICHIGAN, AND REMAIN
SEVERE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE, WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 75 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH
ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
WITH THE MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.
THE STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING, WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY,
AND 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER
RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA. AS
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN
SEMI-DISCRETE. THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO HAVE A THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATER THIS EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA,
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING. THIS COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
...ARK-LA-TEX/WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY...
A MID-LEVEL JET, ANALYZED BY THE RAP, WILL OVERSPREAD THE ARK-LA-TEX
FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE JET IS LOCATED
ABOVE A MOIST AIRMASS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OZARKS
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. ACROSS THIS AIRMASS, THE RAP HAS MLCAPE
IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE, WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET INCREASES, SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BECOME LIKELY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS EASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY, ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 05/16/2025
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