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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.06.19 07:06z 219 Lines 12574 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 14 06
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106
AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO
INTO MUCH OF KS...TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...WESTERN OK...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across
parts of the Great Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and
evening.
...Central/Southern Great Plains... The large-scale pattern
will be rather nebulous across the central/southern Great Plains
today. In the mean, a broad weak trough will move slowly eastward,
with several embedded vorticity maxima likely to move through
the mean trough position through the period. The primary surface
low will likely remain across the northern Plains, though weak
cyclogenesis is possible along the lee trough in the vicinity
of the OK/TX Panhandles. Low-level moisture will continue to
improve, with dewpoints rising into the 60s F across a broad
area east of the surface trough/dryline. The increasing moisture,
combined with persistent steep midlevel lapse rates, will support
moderate-to-strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to be in the
1500-3000 J/kg range by late afternoon. While midlevel flow will be
modest at best, sufficient veering in the wind profile will support
effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for organized structures.
Timing, location, and coverage of convective initiation later today
remain uncertain, given the rather complex large-scale pattern.
However, convergence along the dryline should support at least widely
scattered thunderstorm development, including a few supercells. The
primary initial threat should be large hail, with a conditional
significant hail risk given favorable midlevel lapse rates and
buoyancy. Generally weak low-level shear should limit the tornado
threat, though a tornado or two will be possible with any sustained
discrete supercells. Some upscale growth is possible into the
evening, with potentially an increasing severe wind risk. At this
time, the greatest model consensus for a wind threat this evening is
over portions of KS, though the potential for an MCS-related wind
event remains unclear, given that the low-level jet is expected to
veer and become focused east of the primary instability axis.
...Montana into the Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest...
General west-northwesterly midlevel flow will persist from MT into
the northern Plains today, with a vorticity maximum forecast to move
southeast into portions of eastern MT/western ND by this evening.
Increasing low-level moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates
will result in moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg forecast from much of MT into the Dakotas, MN, and perhaps
northwest WI by afternoon. Thunderstorm initiation will be possible
across the higher terrain of central/northwest MT, and also along
a surface boundary that will likely extend from a surface low over
the central Dakotas into central MN/western WI, where the boundary
will likely be reinforced by early morning convection.
Midlevel flow will be sufficient to support effective shear of
generally 25-35 kt across the region, though the shear will be
locally greater in the vicinity of any surface boundaries. Organized
multicells/clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells will be
possible within the broad northwesterly flow regime from MT into
the Dakotas, with a corresponding risk of hail and locally severe
wind gusts.
Further east into portions of MN/WI, thunderstorm initiation will be
possible this afternoon along the surface boundary/remnant outflow.
While instability will be somewhat weaker compared to areas further
west, stronger low-level flow/helicity will support the potential
for a tornado or two with any sustained supercells, in addition
to some hail/wind threat. If confidence increases in the potential
for multiple rotating storms across this region, an upgrade may be
needed in subsequent outlooks.
...Portions of MO Overnight... Elevated convection is possible
overnight across much of MO as steep midlevel lapse rates move
in from the west and the low-level jet becomes focused in this
region. Sufficient elevated instability and effective shear will
support some hail threat with the strongest storms. There would
also be some potential for damaging wind if any upscale-growing
system moves in from the west or develops from renewed elevated
convection overnight. This wind scenario is too uncertain at this
time for wind probabilities to be extended very far to the east,
but future outlooks will revisit this potential.
..Dean/Elliott.. 06/14/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101
AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday. Isolated
severe storms will also be possible across the mid Mississippi into
the Ohio Valley. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main
threats, with very large hail possible in the Texas Panhandle and
western Oklahoma.
...Plains into the Mid MS Valley/Upper Midwest... A southern-stream
shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners region to the TX/OK
Panhandles by Saturday evening, and storms will likely initiate
off the higher terrain of south-central CO and north-central NM by
early afternoon. Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
also likely form by late afternoon along a surface dryline which is
forecast to mix to the vicinity of the eastern TX Panhandle and far
western OK. Steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the higher
terrain of the Southwest and northern Mexico will overspread much
of the southern/central Plains into the Mid MS Valley. This EML
will combine with a seasonably moist low-level airmass and diurnal
heating to result in a strongly to extremely unstable airmass across
the TX Panhandle into much of OK/KS and parts of MO/IA Saturday
afternoon. Any storms that initiate along/east of the surface dryline
across the southern High Plains should be capable of producing
large hail given the degree of instability forecast (3000-4000+
J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient bulk shear to support slow-moving
supercells. Some of this hail could be greater than 2 inches in
diameter with initial cellular activity. It appears increasingly
probable that more storms will erupt along the KS/OK border by
early evening as a southerly low-level jet quickly strengthens. This
activity may pose an initial large hail threat that transitions to
damaging winds as storms potentially grow upscale into one or more
clusters as they develop southward through the evening.
Farther north, a weak northern-stream shortwave trough moving
southeastward may provide enough ascent in the vicinity of a
slowly deepening surface low over western IA to support convective
development through the afternoon. 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF show potential
for a cluster of thunderstorms to move southeastward across the warm
sector from IA into northern/central MO where MLCAPE will likely
reach 2000-3000+ J/kg in the presence of gradually strengthening
mid-level flow. Although some uncertainty remains in the track of
this potential MCS, there is enough agreement in guidance to support
an eastward extension of the Slight Risk across these areas for an
initial hail threat and potentially greater damaging wind threat
as storms grow upscale and move southward into the areas with the
greatest forecast instability.
...Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley... An MCS moving eastward across
KS into MO from late Friday night into early Saturday morning may
induce an MCV over eastern KS that would track east along the I-70
corridor toward IL during the day. Convection may redevelop along
leading edge of precip/cloud canopy downstream where boundary-layer
heating should contribute to at least some instability, or perhaps
along an outflow boundary on the morning activity's southern
extent. For now, confidence in potential redevelopment from eastern
MO into IL/IN and parts of western/central KY remains too uncertain
to include any higher than 5% probabilities for isolated gusty
winds and perhaps some hail.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% SIG - Slight
..Gleason.. 06/14/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis... While quasi-zonal flow is expected across much of the
CONUS today, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to shift across
the Southwest into the Four Corners area by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile,
a lee surface trough is forecast to modestly strengthen over the
southern High Plains, with a surface low developing in the vicinity
of northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles by 00Z Saturday.
...Portions of the Southwest and Southern High Plains... At least
a modest enhancement to the mid-level flow is expected near the
base of the aforementioned trough by afternoon over portions of
Arizona and New Mexico. Strong heating will promote efficient mixing
of these stronger mid-level winds to the surface, with sustained
surface winds of 20-25 mph amidst a critically dry air mass (e.g.,
RH values below 15%). Critical fire weather conditions are expected
over portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, where the
best combination of enhanced wind and reduced RH overlap fuels that
are receptive to large fire spread.
A larger Elevated delineation surrounds the Critical area, where
either fuels are less receptive (e.g., eastern New Mexico) and/or
sustained surface wind speeds are expected to remain between 15-20
mph (e.g., south-central Arizona).
...Portions of Eastern Oregon and Washington... While a relatively
dry air mass is forecast to remain over the interior Northwest
today, sustained winds are expected to decrease a bit from previous
days. Thus, while locally Elevated fire weather conditions may
develop, have not introduced an Elevated fire weather area at
this time.
..Elliott.. 06/14/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to shift from the
Four Corners region at 12Z Saturday out into the Central Plains by
12Z Sunday. Meanwhile, a surface lee cyclone is forecast to weaken
while slowly shifting from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity
into Oklahoma.
...Portions of New Mexico and West Texas... Enhanced mid-level
flow -- near the base of the aforementioned trough -- is forecast to
overspread portions of the southern High Plains by afternoon. While
critical RH/wind are expected over much of the area, fuels remain
somewhat marginal to large fire spread owing to recent precipitation
and ongoing green-up over this area. However, dry/windy conditions
over the next day may allow fine fuels to cure enough to at least
support an Elevated fire weather area.
..Elliott.. 06/14/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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