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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.08.25 07:46z 435 Lines 12804 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8505_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-AUG
Path: HB9ON<DK0WUE<PD0LPM<IR0AAB<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 250810/0730Z 8505@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582
WW 582 SEVERE TSTM IA KS NE 100145Z - 100900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO/NORTHWEST
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID-EVENING (845 PM CDT) WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND ORGANIZE, POTENTIALLY INTO A BOWING
LINEAR COMPLEX. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD (EAST) OF IT AND ALSO
INTENSIFY WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF HILL CITY KS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA NE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 581...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27030.
...GUYER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581
WW 581 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 091955Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A
FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND EVENTUALLY DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF LIMON
CO TO 65 MILES NORTH OF IMPERIAL NE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27030.
...HART
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0582 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/10/25
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...DDC...GLD...GID...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-155-100440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
KSC027-029-051-055-063-065-071-075-083-089-093-101-105-117-123-
131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-157-161-163-165-167-171-183-195-
201-203-100440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLOUD ELLIS
FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM
GREELEY HAMILTON HODGEMAN
JEWELL KEARNY LANE
LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL
NEMAHA NESS NORTON
OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY ROOKS RUSH
RUSSELL SCOTT SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0581 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO
20 SW ITR.
..SPC..08/10/25
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-025-041-061-073-100440-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO
KIOWA LINCOLN
KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE
NEC087-145-100440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
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SPC MD 1918
MD 1918 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581...
VALID 100313Z - 100515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TRAINING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL
THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW 581 HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
TIME TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.
DISCUSSION...TRAINING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE COLORADO SPRINGS, CO AREA TO THE NORTH OF A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT. VWP DATA FROM KPUX SHOW
PRONOUNCED VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3 KM, SUGGESTING THAT ASCENT OVER
THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STRONG AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM (NEXT 1-2 HOURS) BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER BUOYANCY
IN PLACE OVER EAST-CENTRAL CO. 0-6 KM BWD VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
45-50 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION EASTWARD IS POSSIBLE AS CONTINUED
TRAINING PROMOTES STORM INTERACTIONS/UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A HIGHER
MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST, BUT EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BEYOND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..MOORE.. 08/10/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38080320 38160441 38350469 38640481 38860476 39010460
39060419 38970311 38880282 38730269 38540260 38420260
38210268 38090289 38080320
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1917
MD 1917 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581...582... FOR
NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581...582...
VALID 100253Z - 100500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581, 582
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR 60-80 MPH WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION...KGLD REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS A RECENT
HISTORY OF PRODUCING 60-70 MPH GUSTS, AND WHILE COLD POOL
CONSOLIDATION/ORGANIZATION REMAINS A SLOW PROCESS, MRMS IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERIODIC UPTICKS IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO A MORE
BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM WHERE MLCAPE REMAINS BETWEEN
3000-4000 J/KG. RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING RECENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WELL AND SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 60-80 MPH WINDS, WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BASED
ON ENVIRONMENTAL BUOYANCY AND WIND SHEAR (EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS). IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD SUCH
WINDS WILL BE GIVEN THE SLOW UPSCALE GROWTH, BUT NARROW CORRIDORS OF
SEVERE WINDS APPEAR PROBABLE.
..MOORE.. 08/10/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39500150 39760088 40519998 40589976 40579735 40319715
39989728 39679749 39429778 39269813 39069882 39070064
39130121 39180154 39310160 39500150
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 10, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF IA/MO/IL...
WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN CO, WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. MOIST LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF CELLS ACROSS EASTERN CO THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED SEVERE
GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
FARTHER EAST, ONGOING CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE AND
KS, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN KS. STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR/NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND MODERATE MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES ATOP LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR (40-50
KT) FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. STORM CLUSTERING AND MCS DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING, WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS, POTENTIALLY NEAR/ABOVE 75 MPH.
ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING IS NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE VICINITY,
SUPPORTED BY A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT COULD EVOLVE INTO A FEW SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME
CLUSTERING OF INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS, AND/OR MAINTENANCE OF A
POSSIBLE MCS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN
OVERNIGHT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND ACROSS EASTERN NE/NORTHEAST KS
INTO PARTS OF IA AND NORTHERN MO.
FINALLY, STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO NORTHERN IL, WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER COMPARED
TO AREAS FARTHER WEST, BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. RECENT HRRR/RRFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT, IF AN MCS DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, IT MAY REACH AS FAR AS EASTERN IA/WESTERN IL BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
...SOUTHEAST AZ...
A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST AZ, WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOCALIZED
STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND
LATER THIS EVENING.
..DEAN.. 08/10/2025
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