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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.06.19 07:03z 229 Lines 11743 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26825_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 15 06
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190615/0701Z 26825@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 358 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 150540Z - 151200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 358 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat
Jun 15 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far northwest Arkansas
Southeast Kansas Far southwest Missouri Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Saturday morning from 1240 AM until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated
significant gusts to 80 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Fast-moving bowing squall line should track rapidly east
across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma through the predawn
hours with damaging winds as the primary hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of
Emporia KS to 15 miles east southeast of Tulsa OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28045.
...Grams
WW 357 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 150250Z - 151000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 357 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM CDT Fri
Jun 14 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Kansas Northern
Oklahoma
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 950 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to
70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in
diameter possible
SUMMARY...A linear cluster of storms will continue moving
east/southeastward across much of central Kansas and mainly far
northern Oklahoma through the late evening and overnight hours.
Locally damaging winds will be the main threat, although severe
hail is possible as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of
Russell KS to 25 miles west southwest of Enid OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 355...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Guyer
WW 0358 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0358 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0357 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 357
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW AVK TO
15 N AVK TO 35 SSW ICT TO 15 SE ICT TO 35 ESE SLN.
..DIAL..06/15/19
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 357
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC015-035-191-150740-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER COWLEY SUMNER
OKC003-047-053-059-071-093-103-151-153-150740-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA GARFIELD GRANT HARPER
KAY MAJOR NOBLE WOODS
WOODWARD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0355 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 355
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DHT TO
20 W GUY TO 20 ENE EHA TO 40 NE EHA TO 20 NNW GCK TO 50 N GCK TO
30 WSW HLC TO 45 E MCK.
..JEWELL..06/15/19
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 355
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC025-055-057-063-065-067-069-081-083-101-119-135-137-171-175-
179-189-195-150340-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FINNEY FORD GOVE
GRAHAM GRANT GRAY HASKELL
HODGEMAN LANE MEADE NESS NORTON
SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN STEVENS
TREGO
OKC007-139-150340-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER TEXAS
TXC195-295-357-421-150340-
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259
AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of the central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest
and Ohio Valley later today into tonight. The primary severe risks
are wind and hail, though some tornado threat will also be present
across portions of the Midwest.
...Southern MN...Eastern NE...IA... A vorticity maximum over the
northern Great Plains this morning is forecast to move southeast
across MN during the day. In conjunction with this feature, a weak
surface low is forecast to move from eastern SD southeast into IA
along a nearly stationary surface boundary. Scattered thunderstorm
development is forecast by early afternoon in conjunction with
these features across southern MN. Moderate instability (MLCAPE
of 1500-2500 J/kg) and sufficient effective shear (25-35 kt)
will sse rates. Rather weak midlevel flow/effective
shear may mitigate a more substantial severe threat, but given the
degree of instability, any surface-based storms near the boundary,
or slightly elevated storms north of the boundary, will be capable
of producing large hail and severe wind gusts, and perhaps a brief
tornado.
..Dean/Elliott.. 06/15/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday from
portions of the southern/central Plains eastward into the lower/mid
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic. Large hail and
damaging winds should be the main threats.
...Southern/Central Plains into the Southeast... Convection
occurring in the Day 1/Saturday period will play a large role
in determining location and intensity of thunderstorms on Day
2/Sunday. A large degree of spread exists regarding the potential for
an MCS to develop late Saturday into early Sunday morning across much
of OK and perhaps into parts of north TX. Non convection allowing
model guidance still indicates at least moderate to perhaps very
strong instability will develop across much of western/central OK
and western north TX by Sunday afternoon to the east of a surface
dryline and south of a weak front. A low-amplitude, convectively
enhanced shortwave trough initially over the TX/OK Panhandles Sunday
morning may provide modest ascent to initiate scattered convection
by peak afternoon heating across this area. If forecast MLCAPE of
2500-4000+ J/kg can be realized, modestly enhanced mid-level flow
should allow for some updraft organization, with both a large hail
and damaging wind risk. Have made only minimal changes to the Slight
Risk for now given the uncertainties previously mentioned.
If some of the more southern forecast solutions regarding placement
of a MCS across north TX Sunday morning come to fruition, then an
isolated strong to damaging wind threat may develop from central/east
TX into the lower MS Valley through the day. Outflow emanating
from the morning MCS would provide a low-level forcing mechanism
to loosely organize storms into one or more clusters as low-level
lapse rates steepen across this region. MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg
appears likely to develop by early afternoon given strong diurnal
heating of a very moist low-level airmass. The main limiting factor
appears to be weak mid-level winds, which will probably temper a
more organized severe threat. Have therefore expanded the Marginal
Risk to encompass much of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley to
account for this strong/gusty wind threat that is conditional on MCS
development across OK and north TX tonight into early Sunday morning.
Farther north, post-frontal low-level upslope flow is forecast to
occur across parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon.
Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will probably
develop along parts of the Laramie Mountains in southeastern WY
and perhaps the Front Range in north-central CO and gradually move
southeastward with time. Mid-level northwesterly winds should remain
modest (generally 25-30 kt), but similar values of effective bulk
shear will probably be sufficient to support a marginal hail/wind
threat with any storms that develop across this region.
...Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic... One or
more convective complexes will probably be ongoing Sunday morning
from MO eastward into the OH Valley and perhaps the Mid Atlantic. A
weak surface front will extend from southwest to northeast across
these regions, and there will be some potential for destabilization
to the south of this boundary during the day. Stronger mid-level
flow will be present across parts of OH into the Mid Atlantic with
a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within mid-level westerly
flow, but instability may be weaker across this region owing to
only modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and cloud cover. The
best potential for a sufficient combination of instability and
shear to support updraft organization appears to be across parts
of PA and northern MD Sunday afternoon. The Marginal Risk has
been expanded to include more of these areas, and a Slight Risk
may be needed if confidence in destabilization increases across
this region. Elsewhere across the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys,
strong to locally damaging winds should be the main threat through
the day with loosely organized thunderstorm clusters.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Gleason.. 06/15/2019
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"Drawing on my fine command of language, I said nothing."
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