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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.06.19 07:03z 304 Lines 15928 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 17 06
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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WW 390 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 170100Z - 170800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 800 PM CDT Sun
Jun 16 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and south Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 800 PM until
300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated
significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should pose a damaging-hail threat
early in their lifespans, with potential for upscale growth to
a southeastward-moving complex offering mainly severe wind with
isolated large hail across the coastal plain.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
70 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south
southwest of San Angelo TX to 50 miles north northeast of Palacios
TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 387...WW 388...WW 389...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion
vector 29030.
...Edwards
WW 0390 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 390
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DRT TO
40 SSE JCT TO 20 WNW BAZ TO 25 SSE AUS TO 35 NNW PSX TO 20 E PSX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101
..DIAL..06/17/19
ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 390
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-013-019-025-029-055-057-091-123-175-177-187-239-255-259-
265-285-297-325-385-391-463-469-493-170740-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS ATASCOSA BANDERA BEE
BEXAR CALDWELL CALHOUN COMAL
DEWITT GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE JACKSON
KARNES KENDALL KERR LAVACA
LIVE OAK MEDINA REAL REFUGIO UVALDE
VICTORIA WILSON
GMZ235-330-350-170740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE JKL TO
45 W EKN.
..SMITH..06/17/19
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC027-051-170340-
VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN DICKENSON
WVC005-007-015-019-021-025-045-047-055-059-063-067-081-089-101-
109-170340-
WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BRAXTON CLAY FAYETTE
GILMER GREENBRIER LOGAN MCDOWELL
MERCER MINGO MONROE NICHOLAS RALEIGH
SUMMERS WEBSTER WYOMING
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION
ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
WW 0388 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW HOP TO
5 ESE EVV TO 35 E OWB TO 30 ESE SDF TO 5 SW LEX TO 30 SSW HTS.
WW 388 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 170300Z.
..SMITH..06/17/19
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LMK...IND...ILN...JKL...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC005-021-025-027-029-031-045-047-049-059-061-065-067-079-085-
087-091-093-099-101-107-109-113-115-123-129-137-141-149-151-153-
155-163-165-167-173-175-177-179-183-189-197-203-211-215-217-219-
227-229-237-239-170300-
KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BOYLE BREATHITT BRECKINRIDGE
BULLITT BUTLER CASEY CHRISTIAN
CLARK DAVIESS EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE
GARRARD GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK
HARDIN HART HENDERSON HOPKINS
JACKSON JESSAMINE JOHNSON LARUE
LEE LINCOLN LOGAN MCLEAN
MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MEADE MENIFEE
MERCER MONTGOMERY MORGAN MUHLENBERG
NELSON OHIO OWSLEY POWELL ROCKCASTLE
SHELBY SPENCER
MD 1101 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390... FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
Areas affected...south central Texas through the middle Texas coast
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...
Valid 170616Z - 170715Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390
continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest threat for organized damaging wind gusts
will exist in corridor between New Braunfels and Victoria Texas
through 0730Z.
DISCUSSION...Organized line of severe storms with embedded
meso-vortex was located from east of New Braunfels to near
Floresville. This activity is expected to continue southeast around
35 kt next couple hours along a slowly southward-advancing outflow
boundary supported by moist southeasterly inflow within a moderately
unstable environment. Radar data recently indicated winds to 65
kt within 1000 ft of the surface. These storms will likely remain
capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts during the next
1-2 hours, and several cell mergers will occur with other storms
developing along the boundary farther downstream.
Elsewhere other less organized storms are developing along and
north of the outflow boundary across southeast TX and will pose
some threat for hail and localized gusty winds.
..Dial.. 06/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29679789 29549738 29109668 28709678 28619722 28809796
28949824 29289800 29679789
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257
AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of wind or hail
are expected across parts of the Mid Atlantic this afternoon, and
across the central and southern High Plains from late afternoon
through evening.
...Synopsis... A belt of moderate upper level winds will stretch
from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast while generally lax zonal flow remains over the central
and southern Plains. At the surface, a stationary front will remain
from the mid MS Valley eastward into southern New England, with
ample moisture to the south supporting scattered storms.
...Southeast TX... Areas of storms will affect this region
early in the day, with an outflow boundary near the middle TX
Coast. Areas ahead of the outflow may experience strong wind gusts,
and marginal/elevated hail is possible behind the boundary. In
general, the severe threat will decrease during the day.
...Northeast CO into central NE... A weak area of low pressure
will develop over northeast CO this afternoon, with easterly surface
winds across NE near a stationary front. Strong heating beneath 500
mb temperatures near -10 C will create steep lapse rates and MLCAPE
up to 2000 J/kg. This will favor large hail and damaging outflow
winds as storms develop near the low and along the boundary. Winds
aloft will be weak, thus the threat area will not expand very far
east during the evening.
...Eastern NM into west TX... Mid 60s F dewpoints will spread into
far west TX as a boundary stalls and eventually returns north. Strong
heating will lead to substantial instability along with light but
veering winds with height. This will support scattered cellular
development with large hail likely by late afternoon, with merging
outflows supporting a wind threat as storms move into TX. An
isolated storm with very large hail cannot be ruled out over the
Davis mountains.
...Eastern KY and TN to the Delmarva... In the wake of early day
activity, destabilization will again occur along and south of an
east-west boundary roughly from the OH River into far southern
PA. Despite generally rising heights aloft, a weak disturbance
will emerge across the OH Valley, enhancing lift. However, the
most unstable air mass will be farther east into VA, MD and DE
where MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg is possible. Sporadic marginal hail
and localized damaging wind gusts are possible.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 06/17/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms should develop across
parts of the southern and central Plains on Tuesday, with large
hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple tornadoes possible. Other
marginally severe storms may occur from parts of the Southeast into
the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic.
...Southern/Central Plains... Although details regarding
convective evolution remain somewhat unclear for Tuesday across the
southern/central Plains, concerns about convection occurring over the
High Plains on Monday (today) and contaminating the airmass across
much of this region have been reduced. It appears that one or more
subtle vorticity maxima will move from the southern/central High
Plains across KS/OK and the TX Panhandle through the day. Mid-level
west-northwesterly flow will gradually increase across these regions
in association with these features. At the surface, a cold front
should move southward across NE/KS, while a dryline mixes eastward
across the southern High Plains through the afternoon.
Isolated to scattered storms will probably form both along the
front in KS and on the dryline across the TX/OK Panhandles into
northwest TX. Although relatively greater low-level moisture may
remain displaced to the south of these regions, steep mid-level
lapse rates will advect eastward through the day, and at least
moderate to perhaps very strong instability is forecast to develop
across the warm sector by late afternoon. Although effective bulk
shear of 30-35 kt may be on the lower margins to support supercells,
initial convection along the dryline will likely pose a large hail
threat, and significant hail (2" in diameter or greater) may occur
given the very strong instability forecast. Farther north along
the cold front in KS, storms may have a tendency to grow upscale
into a bowing cluster and move southward into northern/eastern
OK through the evening. Damaging winds may eventually become the
primary threat with these storms.
The potential for a MCS to develop farther south into
central/southern OK and parts of north TX remains uncertain. But,
both the 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF show this as a possibility Tuesday
evening, and the airmass should remain unstable across these
regions. Damaging winds would be a concern with these storms if this
scenario were to occur. Isolated tornadoes may also occur across
parts of northwest TX and southwestern OK early Tuesday evening if
storms can remain relatively discrete as a low-level jet gradually
strengthens across this region.
...Southeast into the TN/OH Valleys and Mid Atlantic...
Yet another low-amplitude shortwave trough should move from parts
of the Southeast into the lower OH/TN Valleys and Mid Atlantic on
Tuesday. Around 30-40 kt of mid-level west-southwesterly flow should
be present ahead of this feature. At the surface, a weak boundary
should remain situated from southwest to northeast across parts
of the OH Valley into PA/NY. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the
shortwave trough and to the south of the front may pose an isolated
severe risk as they move eastward, with moderate buoyancy combining
with modest shear to support occasionally organized updrafts.
Isolated damaging winds should be the main threat where low-level
lapse rates can steepen due to diurnal heating. Some marginally
severe hail may also occur with the strongest cores.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% SIG - Slight
..Gleason.. 06/17/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal flow pattern will remain in place today
across much of the CONUS, with a weak mid-level trough retrograding
from the Great Basin into portions of Southern California. In
general, mid-level flow will remain rather weak. At the surface,
dry conditions will persist across southern portions of the
Desert Southwest, from southern New Mexico/Arizona into southern
Nevada/California. There is some indication among the latest
high-resolution guidance for perhaps a brief period of locally
elevated fire-weather conditions to develop across south-central
New Mexico, however, fuels here are generally non-receptive given
recent precipitation. Otherwise, given the lack of any appreciable
mid-level flow or forcing mechanisms, surface winds should generally
remain light, precluding the need for any fire-weather highlights
at this time.
..Karstens.. 06/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis... The stagnant quasi-zonal flow pattern will begin
to break down on Tuesday as marginally enhanced mid-level westerly
flow (35-45 kt) associated with an upper-level jet streak enters
the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure will
develop, beneath the right-exit/diffluence region of the upper-level
jet, across southern Canada and track into north-central Montana.
Otherwise, dry conditions will persist across southern portions of
the Desert Southwest where winds will generally remain light.
...Columbia Basin Vicinity... Diurnal heating and vertical mixing of
the marginally enhanced mid-level flow will allow afternoon sustained
westerly winds of 15-20 mph to develop as RH values fall into the
20-25% range amidst fuels that are at least marginally receptive
to large-fire spread. Thus, an elevated fire-weather designation
has been introduced for the region, with perhaps some potential
for locally critical conditions, particularly in terrain-favored
locations that can act to locally enhance wind speeds.
..Karstens.. 06/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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The truth is what is; what should be is a dirty lie.
-- Lenny Bruce
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