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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.06.19 07:07z 348 Lines 18400 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 19 06
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Sent: 190619/0703Z 27112@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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WW 399 SEVERE TSTM OK 190645Z - 191000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 399 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 AM CDT Wed
Jun 19 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Wednesday morning from 145 AM until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65
mph possible
SUMMARY...Fast-moving squall line over south-central Oklahoma
should pose a risk for strong to isolated severe wind gusts before
it weakens across southeast Oklahoma towards dawn.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
65 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles south
of Chandler OK to 15 miles south of Poteau OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 398...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27045.
...Grams
WW 398 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 190225Z - 191000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 925 PM CDT Tue
Jun 18 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and central
Oklahoma Northwest Texas
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 925 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over parts of the Texas Panhandle and
Northwest Texas are forecast to move into Oklahoma this evening
and persist into the overnight hours. The stronger storms will
be capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening before
transitioning to primarily a risk for wind damage overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Enid OK to 70 miles south of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 395...WW 396...WW 397...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Smith/Edwards
WW 0399 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0399 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0398 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 398
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MWL TO
45 NNW FTW TO 40 SW ADM TO 25 W ADM TO 30 SE CHK TO 15 S OKC TO 20
NE CQB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
..GLEASON..06/19/19
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 398
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC019-027-049-081-085-087-099-125-190740-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN LINCOLN
LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY POTTAWATOMIE
TXC097-497-190740-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOKE WISE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0397 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 397
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CDS TO
40 WNW CDS TO 35 N CDS.
WW 397 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190600Z.
..SMITH..06/19/19
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 397
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC075-087-101-191-190600-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE HALL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0396 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 396
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW BGD TO
35 NW BGD TO 35 NNW BGD.
WW 396 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190400Z.
..SMITH..06/19/19
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 396
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC195-233-190400-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANSFORD HUTCHINSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1130 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398... FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019
Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern OK into
north-central/northeast TX
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...
Valid 190625Z - 190730Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398
continues.
SUMMARY...Either a local extension in area to Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 398 or a new watch will probably be needed downstream of
ongoing storms within the next hour.
DISCUSSION...A bowing line segment has recently made an eastward
surge into south-central OK, with several measured severe gusts
of 60-70 mph noted. This portion of the line is moving quickly
eastward at 45-50 kt and is approaching the eastern extent of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398. Based on current radar trends,
either an extension in area of the current watch into more of
south-central/southeastern OK or a new watch will likely be
needed by 0730Z. Instability does decrease farther east into
east-central/southeastern OK and northeast TX, likely related
to less low-level moisture across these areas. Still, strong to
damaging winds could persist through the early morning hours.
..Gleason.. 06/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32979739 33459702 34689686 35659654 35609572 34989519
34199504 32939527 32979739
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large, damaging hail and
a couple tornadoes are forecast over north Texas this afternoon
through early evening. Other daytime storms capable of hail or
wind are possible extending northeast toward the Mid Missouri and
Ohio Valleys, and across Tennessee, northern Mississippi and Alabama.
...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong shortwave trough will move
from OK and TX eastward across the lower MS Valley, providing lift
and moderately strong winds aloft. At the surface, low pressure
will stretch from near St. Louis to Dallas, with a wind shift aided
by early day storms from MO to the Red River. Ahead of the surface
trough, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, most notably
over north TX. Here, a conditional threat of isolated, significant
severe storms will exist during the late afternoon and evening. To
the east, the increasing winds aloft ahead of the upper trough along
with heating and a moist air mass will favor scattered severe storms,
mainly with a wind threat.
To the west, another lower-amplitude upper trough will affect the
northern Rockies, with strong zonal flow aloft nosing into WY during
the day and into the northern Plains overnight. Cooling aloft along
with daytime heating will combine with a lee trough from eastern
MT to the central/northern High Plains to support scattered storms,
some strong.
...North TX toward the Arklatex... An MCS is expected to be
located over southeast OK and northeast TX early this morning,
and may be in the process of weakening as it moves across the
Arklatex. This will leave an effective boundary somewhere across
northern TX. South of this boundary, strong heating and cool
temperatures aloft will support very strong instability with
MLCAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg. During the afternoon, a secondary
ripple in the upper flow will move out of northwest TX, enhancing
lift. The low-level lapse rate plume will extend northeastward
toward north TX, where an outflow boundary will likely be in the
process of modifying. At least isolated supercells are expected,
with very large hail possible. Depending on the outflow boundary
position, and how much reinforcement there is throughout the day,
a small zone of tornado potential may also exist. Another scenario
is that storms remain ongoing northeast of the area, and gradually
build southwestward, with an increasing severe threat. Otherwise,
additional storms may arrive from the west, in the strong heating
zone with damaging winds and hail possible.
...Mid MO/OH Valleys region... An expansive area of 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE will develop ahead of the upper trough, with cool
midlevel temperatures and increased winds aloft overspreading the
region. Daytime heating will yield scattered storms developing
toward the OH River with both a hail and wind threat.
...Northern MS and AL and Tennessee... Storms may be ongoing across
AR during the morning, producing outflow. This activity will likely
continue east, and may provide a focus for afternoon redevelopment
near the MS River. Given increasing mean wind speeds, an MCS is
possible, with damaging wind threat, primarily across western TN
and northern MS and AL.
...Northern WY into SD... A few early afternoon storms are possible
over central SD, near the surface trough and in association with a
weak lead wave. Forecast soundings show lightly veering winds with
height and cool profiles aloft, which may support hail or even a
brief, small supercell.
Meanwhile, storms will begin to form over southwest MT across
northern WY. Cold temperatures aloft and long hodographs will favor
cells capable of hail, while deep mixed layers and support a few
small bowing structures capable of severe gusts. Instability will
be weak with the late day and overnight storms, but favorable lift
should maintain at least a marginal threat into SD.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 06/19/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238
AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA PIEDMONT...AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from
the northern Mid-Atlantic States into portions of the Southeast
States Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
across Nebraska late Thursday night into early Friday morning.
...Synopsis... A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected
to extend from the lower OH Valley southward through the Mid-South
early Thursday morning. Several convectively induced vorticity maxima
will likely exist within this broad shortwave trough, with each
providing the impetus for increased thunderstorm coverage as they
progress eastward. Given the convectively induced nature of these
maxima, their location and strength is uncertain. Model consensus
results in high confidence that one of these maxima will move into
PA late Thursday morning/early Thursday afternoon and through the
remainder of the northern Mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening. Model
consensus also suggests a vorticity maximum will be moving through
the TN Valley early Thursday, continuing eastward into the southern
Piedmont by Thursday evening.
Farther west, a cold front is expected to stall over the central
Plains while lee troughing deepens across the High Plains.
...Upper OH Valley/Northern Mid-Atlantic... Dewpoints will likely be
in the upper 60s/low 70s ahead of the vorticity maximum mentioned in
the synopsis. Even with this favorable low-level moisture, poor lapse
rates and stunted daytime heating is expected to limit instability,
with MLCAPE likely remaining below 1000 J/kg. Modest low to mid-level
flow will extend across the region, resulting in deep layer shear
supportive of a few stronger storms amidst a predominantly multicell
storm mode. Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts.
...Carolina and Georgia Piedmont... Widespread thunderstorms
from the Ozark Plateau into north TX on Wednesday will likely
result in the development of a vorticity maximum, which is then
expected to progress eastward across the TN Valley into the
Piedmont. Ample low-level moisture and favorable timing suggests
an area of relatively higher thunderstorm coverage across the
Carolina/Georgia Piedmont. Some of these storms may produce strong
downburst winds. Upscale growth into a more organized convective
system is possible, but mesoscale details are too uncertain for
much forecast confidence at this point.
...Central Plains/Central High Plains... Several different scenarios
will contribute to a severe thunderstorm risk across the region. The
first is early period storms to the north/northeast of a surface
low near the central SD/NE border. These initially elevated storms
could become more surface-based, with a relatively higher severe
threat, if they persist into the afternoon as they gradually move
southeastward. Confidence in that evolution is currently low.
A second scenario for severe may evolve along the lee trough, where
storms will likely develop during the late afternoon. The presence
of a deeply mixed boundary layer will limit buoyancy but a few
stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible. There
is some potential for upscale growth of these storms, with eastward
progression across NE thereafter.
Last scenario for severe over the region is the development (or
maintenance) of elevated thunderstorm Thursday night/Friday morning
amidst warm-air advection across a stalled frontal boundary. Steep
lapse rates and moderate mid-level flow will result in environment
supportive of severe hail.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Mosier.. 06/19/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN...
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will amplify across the
Pacific Northwest, with surface low pressure deepening across the
Northern Rockies during the afternoon hours. Upper-level ridging
will flatten across the Great Basin and the Four Corners region,
with surface low pressure developing across the Four Corners as
well. A relatively strong west-to-east pressure gradient will become
established across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies,
promoting breezy, dry conditions across portions of the northwest
CONUS, where conditions will be favorable for wildfire spread.
...Pacific Northwest... With the onset of afternoon heating
and mixing of the boundary layer, downslope westerly flow will
prevail along the lee of the northern Cascades. 15-25 mph sustained
westerly surface winds are expected to occur during the afternoon
hours, coincident with RH dropping to 20-25%. With drying fuels
becoming prevalent across the Columbia Basin, conditions will
become relatively favorable for wildfire spread, where a critical
delineation has been maintained.
...Southeast New Mexico into southwest Arizona... While stronger
flow aloft will be confined farther to the north, very deep
tropospheric mixing will encourage breezy west-southwesterly surface
flow, with winds potentially exceeding 15 mph during the afternoon
hours, amidst RH dropping to 10%. Fuels in this area are critical,
and given the lack of recent rainfall across the region, combined
with the aforementioned surface wind/RH conditions, an elevated
area was delineated.
...Montana... Widespread elevated to locally critical meteorological
conditions will be present across much of western into central
Montana during the afternoon hours, as deep boundary layer mixing (up
to 700 mb) will encourage downward momentum transport of the stronger
flow aloft, promoting 20+ mph sustained westerly winds and 20-30% RH.
While modest drying of the finer fuels has been ongoing across the
area, recent rainfall from scattered showers/thunderstorms, along
with additional rainfall possible during the period, introduces
uncertainty regarding the receptiveness of the aforementioned finer
fuels, precluding delineations at this time.
..Squitieri.. 06/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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The first duty of a revolutionary is to get away with it.
-- Abbie Hoffman
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