| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 20.06.19 07:13z 449 Lines 23019 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27156_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 20 06
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190620/0705Z 27156@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
WW 407 SEVERE TSTM LA TX 200350Z - 201100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 PM CDT Wed
Jun 19 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Louisiana
East Texas
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1050 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters and bands of thunderstorms should move across
the watch area from the west and northwest, offering mainly damaging
winds and sporadic large hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles west northwest
of College Station TX to 55 miles northeast of Natchitoches LA. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 401...WW 403...WW 405...WW
406...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 28035.
...Edwards
WW 406 SEVERE TSTM AL AR MS TN 200320Z - 201100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Wed
Jun 19 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central
Alabama Northeastern Arkansas Central and northern Mississippi
Southern middle and southwestern Tennessee
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1020 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with
isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail
events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized cluster and separate bow echo initially
over eastern Arkansas, each with a well-developed wind signature and
history of severe gusts, will proceed into and across the watch area.
These systems could merge as well. Severe thunderstorm wind will
remain the main threat, though an embedded tornado or two also
is possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
95 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north
northwest of Greenwood MS to 45 miles northeast of Birmingham AL.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 401...WW 402...WW 403...WW
405...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 27050.
...Edwards
WW 405 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 200140Z - 200900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 840 PM CDT Wed
Jun 19 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and eastern
Arkansas Northern Louisiana Northwestern Mississippi
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 840 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of severe thunderstorms are expected to move
across the region this evening and tonight from the eastern parts of
tornado watch 401, offering mainly hail and wind threats. However,
a tornado cannot be ruled out.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast
of Little Rock AR to 60 miles south southwest of Greenville MS. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 400...WW 401...WW 402...WW
403...WW 404...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 27030.
...Edwards
WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE LFK TO
35 NE LFK TO 40 WSW MLU TO 20 WNW MLU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
..GLEASON..06/20/19
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC021-043-049-059-069-073-085-111-127-200740-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA SABINE UNION
WINN
TXC403-405-200740-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W GWO TO
15 SSE CBM TO 15 NE CBM TO 30 ENE TUP TO 45 N TUP TO 40 NNE MKL.
..GLEASON..06/20/19
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 406
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-009-021-033-043-057-059-063-065-073-075-077-079-083-089-
093-095-103-105-107-115-117-119-125-127-133-200740-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB BLOUNT CHILTON COLBERT
CULLMAN FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN PERRY PICKENS ST. CLAIR SHELBY
SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON
MSC003-007-015-019-051-069-079-089-099-103-105-117-141-159-163-
200740-
MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW
HOLMES KEMPER
WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MLU TO
25 SSE LLQ TO 20 SW GWO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
..GLEASON..06/20/19
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-200740-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
LAC035-041-065-067-083-107-123-200740-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
MSC053-055-125-200740-
MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW CSM TO
45 S AVK TO 35 SSW END.
..SMITH..06/20/19
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC011-039-043-129-200330-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ROGER MILLS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE TYS TO
45 NE TYS.
WW 403 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200600Z.
..GLEASON..06/20/19
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC025-200600-
TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CRS TO
10 W DAL TO 20 SSE PRX TO 35 SE TXK TO 15 SE ELD.
WW 401 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200500Z.
..SMITH..06/20/19
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC015-017-027-119-200500-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE WEBSTER
TXC027-063-067-085-113-145-159-183-203-213-223-231-257-315-343-
365-379-397-401-423-439-449-459-467-499-200500-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL CAMP CASS COLLIN
DALLAS FALLS FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
MARION MORRIS PANOLA RAINS
ROCKWALL RUSK SMITH TARRANT TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
MD 1153 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405...407... FOR
PORTIONS OF FAR EAST TX...NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA...AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL
MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019
Areas affected...Portions of far east TX...northern/central LA...and
far west-central MS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...407...
Valid 200631Z - 200730Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405,
407 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated strong to damaging wind threat continues
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405 and 407.
DISCUSSION...Outflow from a line of strong to severe thunderstorms
has recently surged southeastward across far east TX into
northwestern LA. This outflow has generally outpaced new updrafts
forming along/behind it, and the orientation of this boundary
is becoming increasingly parallel to westerly mid-level flow. A
relatively greater strong to damaging wind threat persists from
parts of north-central LA into northeastern LA and far west-central
MS in the near term. Across these areas, a small bowing segment is
aligned more orthogonal to the mid-level flow, and stronger updrafts
have recently been occurring with this convection. If this portion of
the line can maintain its intensity, it could eventually encounter a
generally undisturbed and moisture-rich low-level airmass in central
MS that lies along/south of outflow from a line of storms now over
eastern MS and western AL.
..Gleason.. 06/20/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31059439 31629440 31919438 32109353 32369283 32749266
32999261 32979073 32609076 31889128 31449206 31059439
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts
and hail are likely today across parts of the Carolinas into the
Middle Atlantic and Southeast. Isolated severe storms may also
develop across parts of the Great Plains and Mid Missouri Valley.
...Eastern States... An upper-level trough will move eastward from
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys across the Southern and Central
Appalachians into the Carolinas today. Ahead of the trough, a
moist airmass will be in place from Georgia northeastward across
the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. In response, a large corridor of moderate
instability is forecast to develop from the southern Appalachian
foothills eastward to the Atlantic coast. Thunderstorms appear
likely to initiate and organize just ahead of the shortwave trough
in the southern Appalachians around midday with this activity moving
eastward into the foothills during the afternoon. Forecast soundings
in the foothills in northwestern South Carolina and west-central
North Carolina at 21Z show MLCAPE values reaching 2,000 J/kg with
0-6 km shear of 30-35 kt. This combined with veered southwesterly
winds at the surface and westerly flow in the low to mid-levels will
be favorable for quasi-linear development. As low-level lapse rates
become steep in the afternoon, conditions will become favorable
for wind damage along the leading edge of an MCS moving eastward
away from the southern Appalachians. For this reason, will upgrade
to Enhanced risk for wind damage across parts of northern South
Carolina, North Carolina and southern Virginia. Isolated large hail
will also be possible with the stronger parts of the linear MCS.
Further north into the Mid-Atlantic, instability is not forecast
to be quite as strong as across the Carolinas. For that reason,
the wind damage threat is expected to remain more isolated and will
depend upon which areas destabilize the most. Wind damage would be
the primary threat across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon.
...Mid-Missouri Valley... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place
in the central U.S. today as a shortwave ridge develops across the
central and northern Plains. Beneath the ridge, an axis of moderate
to strong instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front
from Kansas northward into the mid Missouri Valley. Convection
appears likely to initiate along the front with thunderstorms moving
eastward across parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa during the
late afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z for Omaha, Nebraska and
Kansas City, Missouri show MLCAPE reaching 2,500 J/kg and have strong
deep-layer shear profiles. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 55
kt at both locations suggesting that supercells will be the likely
storm mode. Convective coverage should remain relatively isolated
due to a weak cap but any cells that can initiate and mature should
have severe potential. The strong instability combined with steep
low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for wind damage and
large hail. A brief tornado would also be possible with supercells
mainly during the early evening as low-level flow increases across
the region.
...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to become
west-southwesterly today across the central High Plains in the wake
of a developing upper-level ridge in the mid Missouri Valley. At the
surface, backed east-southeasterly flow will be in place which will
reinforce an axis of moisture and instability from southern Kansas
extending northwestward into northeastern Colorado and western
Nebraska. As surface temperatures warm, convection will initiate
in the higher terrain of northeastern Colorado and spread eastward
into the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep low to mid-level
lapse rates and moderate to strong deep-layer shear, evident on
forecast soundings, will be favorable for severe storms. Dry air in
the low-levels may contribute to downburst potential but isolated
large hail will be possible especially if a supercell can develop.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/20/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252
AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO....
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday across
portions of the northern Plains, middle/lower Missouri River Valley,
and northeastern Colorado.
...Northern/Central Plains eastward/southeastward into the Lower
OH Valley... A very moist and strongly unstable air mass will be
in place from eastern portions of the Plains into the lower OH
Valley on Friday However, early period thunderstorms may have a
large influence on the overall convective evolution, leading to
moderate forecast uncertainty.
Surface pattern early Friday morning will likely be characterized
by a low over southeast MT/western SD with a trough extending
to another low over western KS. A warm front is expected to arc
northeastward from this western KS low to the KS/NE border and
then southeastward across central MO. Storms may be ongoing north
of this front across NE, although model consensus regarding the
coverage and strength of these storms is poor. Presence of strong
instability coupled with an eastward-shifting low-level jet could
provide the ingredients needed for organization of any ongoing
storms, with the warm front then providing a favored corridor for
forward propagation. Confidence in this scenario is currently low,
but if it materializes a corridor of damaging wind gusts is possible
from northern/central MO into southern IL.
The warm front is expected to progress northward as very moist air
advects northward into the MO Valley. By late Friday afternoon,
70 degree dewpoints will likely be as far north as central IA
and the NE/SD border. Very steep lapse rates (i.e. 9 deg C per
km from 700 to 500 mb) associated with an well-developed EML atop
this abundant low-level moisture will result in extreme buoyancy
but also substantial convective inhibition. Large-scale forcing for
ascent will be nebulous and slightly rising heights are anticipated,
leading to some uncertainty as to whether or not the convective
inhibition can be overcome and the resulting storm coverage. That
being said, any storms that do develop should have strong updrafts
capable of large hail. If a surface-based storm develops, backed
surface winds along the warm front support enough low-level shear
for a tornado or two.
A somewhat separate regime exits across the eastern Dakotas, where
convergence along the surface trough arcing from the western ND
low to the KS low will likely result in scattered thunderstorm
development. A few severe storms are anticipated, with hail as the
primary threat. A tornado or two is also possible.
...Northeastern CO.. Post-frontal upslope regime is expected
across northeastern CO on Friday, with enough low-level moisture and
vertical shear to support severe thunderstorms. Primary severe threat
is large hail, some of which could exceed 2" in diameter. Denver
cyclonic convergence zone could also contribute to a few tornadoes.
...TX Panhandle/Far Western OK into the TX Big Bend... Temperatures
will likely reach the upper 90s/low 100s along the dryline Friday
afternoon, helping to overcome any convective inhibition. Resulting
high-based thunderstorms will have the potential to produce strong
wind gusts and isolated hail.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% SIG - Slight
..Mosier.. 06/20/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will amplify across
the western CONUS through the period, with a surface low-pressure
trough developing across the Great Basin, and a cold front moving
southward across the central Rockies regions to the southern
Great Basin. Behind the cold front, cool surface temperatures and
relatively higher relative humidity values are expected despite
windier conditions. With surface high pressure building in from
off the Pacific Coast, a modest pressure gradient will become
established across portions of northern California, promoting dry,
breezy conditions across parts of the Sacramento Valley, where some
potential will exist for wildfire spread.
...Northern California... During the afternoon hours, deep mixing of
the boundary layer will result in downslope flow along the southern
extent of the Klamath Mountains. Winds out of the north at 15-20
mph amidst 15-25% RH are expected up until sunset, when nocturnal
cooling and diminished boundary layer mixing will temper the wildfire
threat. An elevated area was delineated to account for this scenario.
...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners regions... Stronger mid-level
flow at the base of the trough will overlap a deeply mixed boundary
layer, promoting widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly
surface winds and RH in the 10-20% range by peak heating of the
afternoon. Currently, fuels are modestly (at best) receptive to
wildfire spread given recent rainfall over the past few days. As
such, no areas were delineated at this time, though meteorological
conditions will support wildfire spread potential over any isolated
patches of fuels that have cured sufficiently after the most
recent rainfall. In addition, the lack of forecast rainfall and
aforementioned dry/windy conditions will prime the finer fuels
across lower elevations for Day 2/Friday.
..Squitieri.. 06/20/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Dear Miss Manners:
Please list some tactful ways of removing a man's saliva from
your face.
Gentle Reader:
Please list some decent ways of acquiring a man's saliva on
your face ...
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
