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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.06.19 07:07z 301 Lines 16444 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 21 06
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 413 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 210240Z - 210900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Thu
Jun 20 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of northern Kansas central
and southern Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 940 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms now spreading across the central High
Plains are expected to continue to consolidate and intensify while
spreading eastward across the region overnight, with additional
storm developing to the east. This activity will pose a continuing
risk for severe hail, with increasing risk for potentially damaging
wind gusts through 2-4 AM CDT.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest
of Imperial NE to 10 miles east of Lincoln NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 411...WW 412...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Kerr
WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE GLD TO
40 NE MCK TO 30 ENE LBF TO 15 W MHN.
..SMITH..06/21/19
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...TOP...LBF...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC039-065-089-117-123-137-141-147-153-157-163-183-201-210530-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR GRAHAM JEWELL MARSHALL
MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS
RAWLINS REPUBLIC ROOKS SMITH WASHINGTON
NEC001-009-011-019-023-031-035-037-039-041-047-053-059-061-065-
067-071-073-077-079-081-083-093-095-099-109-113-115-119-121-125-
129-137-141-143-145-151-155-159-163-167-169-171-175-181-183-185-
210530-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BLAINE BOONE BUFFALO
BUTLER CHERRY CLAY COLFAX
CUMING CUSTER DAWSON DODGE FILLMORE
FRANKLIN FURNAS
WW 0411 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 411
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ITR TO
35 SW IML TO 15 ESE SNY TO 20 NE CDR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169
..SMITH..06/21/19
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 411
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC095-115-210300-
CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-210300-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM
LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN
SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE
NEC005-029-031-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-117-
135-145-161-171-210300-
NE
MD 1171 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL NE...NORTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019
Areas affected...South-Central NE...North-Central KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...
Valid 210542Z - 210715Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for strong wind gust will continue across
south-central NE and north-central KS for the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing MCS along the central KS/NE border has shown a
notable forward surge in last half hour or so. Current storm motion
is eastward at 44 kt. Several wind gusts of 70-75 mph have been
reported across Furnas County Nebraska where this forward surge
occurred. Reflectivity aloft has since decreased slightly and the
some weakening of the low-level reflectivity has been noted.
Persistence of this well-organized MCS is anticipated for at
least the next several hours, but the overall intensity (and
resulting strength of the wind gusts) is uncertain, particularly
given the reflectivity trends previously noted. That being said,
the downstream air mass is characterized by very strong buoyancy
(almost 7000 J/kg of MLCAPE on the 02Z LMN sounding) and 30 to 40
kt of effective bulk shear, both of which are more than supportive
of storm persistence. Given the recent trends, the threat for strong
wind gusts (i.e. 60 to 70 mph) will likely persist for the next few
hours, although the likelihood of significant wind gusts (i.e. 75+
mph) appears to be lowering.
..Mosier.. 06/21/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40369987 41189926 41609878 41349739 39629708 39160029
40369987
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252
AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts
of the northern and central Plains, southeastward across the Missouri
Valley into the mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
...Mid Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley/Southeast.... A linear
MCS in the lower Missouri Valley this morning is forecast to move
east-southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The line of
strong thunderstorms should turn southeastward into lower Ohio
Valley around midday and may reach the Tennessee Valley this
afternoon. The linear MCS is forecast to track southeastward along
a gradient of moderate instability. This combined with moderate
deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates may be enough
to maintain an isolated wind-damage threat along the leading edge
of the line. Additional strong to severe convection will be possible
along the outflow boundary that is laid out by the MCS across parts
of the mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Isolated marginally
severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts could occur in parts
of the Southeast along low-level convergence zones that heat up
sufficiently near peak heating.
...Central and Northern Plains... An upper-level ridge will move
eastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today. Southwest
mid-level flow will become established in the wake of the ridge
across the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will advance southeastward into east-central Nebraska and
north-central Kansas. Ahead of this front, a moist airmass will be
in place from Kansas and northern Missouri northward into eastern
Nebraska and southwestern Iowa where surface dewpoints will be mostly
in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. In response, strong instability
should develop by afternoon. Convection is forecast to develop
along and ahead of the front in eastern Nebraska by mid to late
afternoon and possibly eastward across the moist sector from Iowa
into northwestern Illinois. Warm air aloft adds uncertainty as to
how many storms can form. NAM forecast soundings near Omaha and Des
Moines show strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE values above
5000 J/kg. In addition, 0-6 km shear values are forecast to reach
the 35 to 40 kt range which should be favorable for supercells with
large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will
be possible with supercells that become dominant.
Further north into the northern Plains, a corridor of maximized
low-level moisture should exist in the far eastern South Dakota into
eastern North Dakota. Moderate instability is forecast to develop
across east-central South Dakota where model forecasts suggest that
scattered thunderstorms will initiate this afternoon. Moderate
deep-layer shear would be favorable for supercell formation with
large hail and wind damage possible.
...Central and Southern High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow will
be in place across the central and southern High Plains today. At the
surface, a cold front will move southward across eastern Colorado
and into western Kansas. Thunderstorm development is forecast to
take place along the front range and along the front during the mid
afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. A wind-damage
threat may also develop as the cells mature and move eastward into
the High Plains during the late afternoon.
Further south across the southern High Plains, a corridor of strong
to extreme instability is forecast by afternoon from west-central
Texas into western Oklahoma. Although a capping inversion is
evident on forecast soundings, isolated convective development
may take place in areas where surface heating can overcome the
cap. The best chance for isolated supercell development would be in
northwest Texas and western Oklahoma where moderate deep-layer shear
is forecast. For this outlook, will add a marginal into western
Oklahoma and northwest Texas where isolated large hail and strong
gusty winds will be possible.
..Broyles/Cook.. 06/21/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104
AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across parts of the central
Plains on Saturday, with at least isolated severe storms from the
Ohio Valley to the Carolinas.
...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will stretch from
the Rockies to the Plains, with 40-50 kt midlevel southwesterlies
from KS to the upper Mississippi Valley, and 80+ kt winds at 300
mb. An initial shortwave embedded in the flow will rotate out of
WY across the Dakotas, while a secondary wave intensifies over
the central and southern High Plains late. The surface pattern
will reflect both these waves, with a surface low moving from KS
to IA during the day, and a southern low forming over northwest TX
during the evening. Here, a dryline will also exist over west TX,
and will remain nearly stationary. A cold front will move slowly
southeast across NE/IA, KS, and northwest OK, and will serve as
the primary focus for severe storms.
...TX/OK/KS/IA... Extreme instability will develop east of the
dryline over northwest TX, and ahead of the cold front from OK to
IA. MLCAPE around 5000 J/kg is possible, owing to 70s F dewpoints
and steep midlevel lapse rates. The area from KS southward into
the TX Panhandle will become uncapped by mid afternoon, with rapid
storm formation expected along the front and dryline. Shear will
initially be weak, but a few slow-moving supercells are possible,
producing very large hail. Given linear forcing, an MCS is likely,
with damaging winds likely. Aiding the potential MCS will be
an increasing low-level jet over 40 kt out of the south. A brief
tornado cannot be ruled out with any of these storms given extreme
instability.
...IA/IL/KY/TN... Early day storms are likely from IA into IL,
related to low-level warm advection. Some of these storms may produce
marginally severe wind gusts as they continue southeastward toward
the OH Valley beneath 30 kt midlevel winds.
In the wake of this activity, the warm front will lift north across
IA and northern IL, with the surface low into IA by late afternoon.
Heating may be limited, but 70s F dewpoints beneath cool temperatures
aloft, along with substantial lift will likely result in severe
storms, including a few supercells. A tornado threat could develop
should the boundary layer recover enough to support surface-based
storms, and parts of this area could be upgraded in later outlooks.
Elsewhere, at least isolated strong to severe storms capable of wind
or hail are possible along the length of the instability gradient
which will lift northward across the Carolinas. Here, instability
will be strong, with modest 20-25 kt mean winds in the lowest 6km.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced
..Jewell.. 06/21/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF
NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PART OF
NORTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... An amplified pattern will persist across the
CONUS today. The synoptic feature most directly attributable to
fire weather concerns this afternoon are a cut-off, mid-level low
centered over Montana and a shortwave trough migrating/amplifying
southeastward across the central Rockies. This pattern will
contribute to enhanced and cyclonically curved mid-level flow
atop dry low-level air in place across the southwestern quadrant
of the CONUS. Elevated to critical fire weather is likely across
north-central California and much of Arizona, New Mexico, and far
southern Colorado.
...Arizona, southern Colorado, and New Mexico... Vertical mixing
beneath 30-40 kt southwesterly flow aloft and an appreciable
surface pressure gradient across the region will result in broad
areas of 20-25 mph surface flow during the afternoon and early
evening. These windy conditions will occur amidst a very dry
low-level airmass, with minimum RH values ranging from 10-15% from
south-central to northeastern Arizona to single digits in central,
southern, and eastern New Mexico. The presence of dry fuels and
high ERCs (especially from western/central New Mexico southwestward
to southern Arizona) will foster critical fire weather conditions
during the afternoon and early evening.
...Northern California... Vertical mixing processes beneath
30-40 knot mid-level flow will foster a corridor of breezy to
windy conditions across northern portions of the Central Valley,
with localized terrain enhancements supporting 20 mph northerly
winds in some locations. The downslope component of this wind
will aid in warming and drying within an already dry airmass, with
single-digit RH values becoming common during peak heating values.
Dry fuels in conjunction with these atmospheric conditions will
foster a risk of large fire spread. Thus, elevated and critical
delineations remain in place for this outlook in the affected areas.
..Cook.. 06/21/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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MORE SPORTS RESULTS:
The Beverly Hills Freudians tied the Chicago Rogerians 0-0 last Saturday
night. The match started with a long period of silence while the Freudians
waited for the Rogerians to free associate and the Rogerians waited for
the Freudians to say something they could paraphrase. The stalemate was
broken when the Freudians' best player took the offensive and interpreted
the Rogerians' silence as reflecting their anal-retentive personalities.
At this the Rogerians' star player said "I hear you saying you think we're
full of ka-ka." This started a fight and the match was called by officials.
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