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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.06.19 07:02z 218 Lines 12627 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27463_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 25 06
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<LU4ECL<CT1ENI<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 190625/0700Z @:LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM #:27463 LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY... Scattered to isolated severe storms are possible from
the upper Great Lakes region southwestward into the mid Missouri
Valley and central Plains. A few strong to severe storms with gusty
winds and hail are possible over the northern Rockies as well as
west Texas. A few strong storms with gusty winds are also possible
from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley region.
...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving through the Great Lakes will
continue northeast into southeastern Canada this morning. In wake
of this feature, general high rises will occur within belt of
modest westerlies from the central through northern Plains. Weak
vorticity maxima embedded within this zone of flow will play a role
in thunderstorm initiation this afternoon. Surface low associated
with the northern-stream shortwave trough will occlude over Ontario.
Trailing front will extend southwest through MN into southwestern
NE this morning. This front will advance southeast during the day
and likely extend from northeast WI through IA and southern NE where
it will stall near the KS border. A dryline will stretch from west
TX through northwest KS where it will intersect the front.
...Central Plains through the middle Missouri Valley and upper
Great Lakes...
Rich low-level moisture with upper 60s to 70 F dewpoints will
advect northward through the pre-frontal warm sector and into
the central Plains and middle MO Valley region beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates. This will result in a corridor of moderate
to strong instability from KS, southern NE, northern MO into IA
(2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). A capping inversion resulting from warm
air at the base of an elevated mixed layer will delay surface based
thunderstorm initiation until mid-late afternoon. Model consensus
is that storms should eventually develop from near the dryline/cold
front intersection over northwest KS, eastward along the front
across northern KS into southern NE fostered by frontal convergence
and ascent associated with weak impulses moving through the zonal
flow regime. Given the degree of instability and 30-35 kt effective
bulk shear, some supercell structures are likely, but storms may
eventually congeal into one more clusters. Very large hail, a couple
tornadoes, and damaging wind will be possible through mid evening.
Farther north toward the Great Lakes, storm coverage could
be more sparse due to potential subsidence and weaker frontal
convergence in wake of primary shortwave trough. Nevertheless,
at least isolated storms are possible from WI into lower MI where
stronger wind profiles and 30-35 kt vertical shear will support a
threat for organized structures with damaging wind and large hail
the main threats.
...West Texas...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop along
the dryline across west TX by late afternoon. Winds aloft will
continue to decrease resulting in weak shear as heights rise during
the day. However, the thermodynamic environment with steep lapse
rates and moderate instability will support a risk for downburst
winds and hail through early evening.
...Northern Rockies through central High Plains...
At least isolated storms will likely develop over the northern
Rockies and spread east into the high Plains where 45+ kt effective
bulk shear will support potential for some supercell structures.
Moisture will be limited and storms will be high based, but will
pose a risk for downburst winds and large hail. Activity might
consolidate into one or two small clusters overnight. A slight
risk might be needed for a portion of this region in later updates,
most likely from western NE into western SD and northeast WY.
..Dial/Cook.. 06/25/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0116 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE ERROR
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of wind and
hail are possible across parts of the central High Plains into the
northern Plains, and over much of Montana on Wednesday. Additional
strong storms are expected from northern Indiana into the lower
Great Lakes vicinity.
...Northern Rockies/Montana...
An upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast will shift eastward
only slightly on Wednesday as height rises reinforce the upper
ridge over the Plains. As the upper low slowly pivots inland,
strengthening southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the
Great Basin and northern Rockies. East/southeasterly low level flow
across the northern Plains will bring mid 40s to mid 50s dewpoints
eastward across much of MT into northern ID and portions of the
Columbia Basin. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will
result in MLCAPE values from around 500-1500 J/kg. A deeply mixed
sub-cloud layer (i.e. inverted-v thermodynamic profile) and strong
midlevel flow will support strong downdrafts, and strong to severe
wind gusts are possible from northeast OR/southeast WA eastward
across much of MT. Shear profiles indicate high-based supercells
are possible, and elongated hodographs above 3-4 km in the midst of
7.5-8.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates will support large hail as well,
especially across parts of northern/central MT where a Slight risk
has been included.
...Northern Plains to Central High Plains Vicinity...
Height rises are expected across the Plains but temperatures aloft
will remain cool, maintaining a large area of very steep lapse
rates atop a moderate EML in the 850-700 mb layer. Some guidance
suggests convection may be ongoing, but decaying, at the beginning
of the period in the vicinity of the mid-MO Valley. This activity
could pose a marginal severe threat, but more likely will result
in various outflow boundaries overlying the region. Southerly low
level flow will maintain rich boundary-layer moisture, with dewpoints
in the 60s to mid 70s F across all but the western portions of the
Plains states where a surface trough and dryline will extend north to
south from far eastern WY/western NE through western KS and into the
OK/TX Panhandles. Mid to upper level west/southwesterly flow across
the central/southern Rockies will be rather modest, but there is
some evidence of a weak impulse ejecting across the region during
the afternoon. Strong heating/instability could lead to isolated
storms during the late afternoon/evening hours if forcing becomes
strong enough to overcome moderate capping. Strong wind gusts and
hail would be possible with any storms that form.
Some guidance suggests the as a southerly low level jet increases
during the evening/overnight, a complex of storms could emerge
from dryline convection perhaps in NE, or develop along outflow
from aforementioned morning convection. The overall conditional
and uncertain nature of the threat across the region will preclude
higher severe probabilities at this time.
...Northern Indiana/OH into PA/NY/VT...
A couple of weak impulses associated with northern Ontario mid/upper
low will migrate through westerly flow in the Great Lakes vicinity
on Wednesday afternoon. This will result in a moderate midlevel flow
around 30-40 kt downstream of Lake Michigan toward western PA/NY.
Southwesterly low level flow will maintain 60s dewpoints and strong
heating will result in 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. As a result, one or
more bands of storms are expected to develop and shift east/southeast
across the region. Strong wind gusts will be the main threat but
some near-1 inch hail is possible as well.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Leitman.. 06/25/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be greatest across the
West and Southwest this afternoon and early evening. A closed
low initially over northeastern Pacific waters west of British
Columbia will migrate southward and impact much of the West through
the forecast period as shortwave ridging aloft develops over the
central Rockies. The net result of this pattern will be increasing
southwesterly flow aloft atop a dry low-level airmass in the Great
Basin and vicinity. While this would ordinarily result in a classic
synoptic pattern for western U.S. fire weather, the relatively
slow start to the season (due to a wet spring) will mitigate fire
weather concerns in most areas.
...Northwestern Nevada southward through the Lower Colorado
River Valley and portions of Arizona... Vertical mixing processes
beneath enhanced flow aloft and a favorably oriented surface trough
from Nevada southward through western Arizona will result in a
fairly broad area of critically strong (20+ mph) surface winds in
much of Nevada. These winds will be slightly weaker in Arizona.
Meanwhile, the dry airmass over the region and mixing will lower
RH values to critical thresholds - lowest in the lee of the Sierras
and in southern Nevada. These conditions will ordinarily result in
critical delineations across western and southern Nevada, though
fuels continue to be unfavorable for large fires except for on a
localized basis away from where surface winds will be strongest.
Thus, elevated fire weather delineations remain in place to address
the fire weather scenario.
..Cook.. 06/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue
in the West Thursday. A cutoff low west of the WA/OR coast will
continue to migrate slowly southward throughout the forecast period
while shortwave ridging shifts northeastward toward the northern
High Plains. This will result in increased southwesterly flow
across dry areas of the West - a regime similar to D1/Wednesday
though with slightly increased flow both aloft and at the surface.
...Western Nevada southeastward into southwestern Colorado and
western New Mexico... Vertical mixing of stronger flow aloft
and continued surface troughing in the Great Basin will promote
development of widespread 20+ mph surface winds with a few higher
gusts - especially from northern Arizona northward through the
remainder of the Great Basin. Meanwhile, critically low RH values
will exist during the evening due to a continued dry airmass.
Fuels are driest and most supportive of fire spread in areas of
southern Arizona - displaced from stronger flow and low RH to the
north of this area. Again, the relatively slow start to the fire
season will mitigate fire weather concerns - with only locally
critical fire weather conditions expected where fuels are dry.
..Cook.. 06/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Frobnicate, v.:
To manipulate or adjust, to tweak. Derived from FROBNITZ.
Usually abbreviated to FROB. Thus one has the saying "to frob a frob".
See TWEAK and TWIDDLE. Usage: FROB, TWIDDLE, and TWEAK sometimes connote
points along a continuum. FROB connotes aimless manipulation; TWIDDLE
connotes gross manipulation, often a coarse search for a proper setting;
TWEAK connotes fine-tuning. If someone is turning a knob on an oscilloscope,
then if he's carefully adjusting it he is probably tweaking it; if he is
just turning it but looking at the screen he is probably twiddling it;
but if he's just doing it because turning a knob is fun, he's frobbing it.
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