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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.02.19 05:16z 71 Lines 3518 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16425_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 14 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<ED1ZAC<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190114/0700Z 16425@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.17
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/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151
PM CST Sun Jan 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential remains low through sunrise
Tuesday morning.
...CA...
Large-scale forcing will increase across CA during the day ahead
of a pronounced short-wave trough that should move onshore around
15/00z. As ascent increases across this region, mid level profiles
should moisten and cool such that weak buoyancy will develop within a
steepening mid-level lapse rate environment. Forecast soundings along
the central/southern CA coast exhibit MUCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg
ahead of the trough and there is reason to believe weak convection
will evolve as large-scale forcing spreads inland. However, updraft
depth/strength will likely remain too shallow/marginal to warrant
any meaningful threat of lightning. For these reasons will maintain
less than 10% probability of thunder across CA.
..Darrow/Leitman.. 01/14/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155
PM CST Sun Jan 13 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur along the coast of
California on Tuesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure will remain
centered over the Southeast on Tuesday, which will limit low-level
moisture return across the western Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms
are not expected across the central/eastern CONUS due to a lack of
sufficient moisture.
Across the western CONUS, an upper ridge will erode as a
southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the lower CO River
Valley moves northeastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies
through the period. Another upper trough should move eastward
from the eastern Pacific over CA. Short-range guidance has come
into better agreement on the placement of this upper trough and
associated mid/upper-level jet as it approaches CA. Large-scale
ascent ahead of the jet combined with slowly decreasing mid-level
temperatures may foster the development of weak elevated instability
along parts of the CA Coast. Some isolated thunderstorms may occur
in this regime, although the marginal thermodynamic profile should
limit any meaningful severe threat.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Gleason.. 01/14/2019
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"I am, in point of fact, a particularly haughty and exclusive person, of
pre-Adamite ancestral descent. You will understand this when I tell you that
I can trace my ancestry back to a protoplasmal primordial atomic globule.
Consequently, my family pride is something inconceivable. I can't help it.
I was born sneering."
-- Pooh-Bah, "The Mikado", Gilbert & Sullivan
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