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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.06.19 07:03z 190 Lines 9281 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27601_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 27 06
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190627/0700Z 27601@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 451 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 270500Z - 271200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 451 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Thu
Jun 27 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern North Dakota
South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday morning from Midnight until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized line of storms is expected to continue
generally eastward overnight across northern/central South Dakota
and far southern North Dakota. Damaging winds and severe hail
are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest
of Rapid City SD to 30 miles south of Aberdeen SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 450...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26035.
...Guyer
WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0451 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0450 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW VTN TO
30 SSW PHP TO 25 SE RAP TO 45 SE GCC.
A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
..KERR..06/27/19
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC007-019-033-055-063-071-081-093-103-270500-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER HAAKON
HARDING JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
PENNINGTON
WYC011-045-270500-
WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROOK WESTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE 4BQ TO
20 S GDV. THE WATCH MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR 1 HOUR FOR CARTER
COUNTY AND VICINITY. OTHERWISE, THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 04Z.
..COOK..06/27/19
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-270440-
MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE OMK TO
50 ENE EPH TO 35 NW ALW TO 40 WNW PDT TO 35 SE YKM.
WW 448 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z.
..COOK..06/27/19
ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 448
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WAC001-005-021-025-043-270300-
WA . WASHINGTON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BENTON FRANKLIN GRANT
LINCOLN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234
AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of very large hail,
intense wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible
across portions of west-central into northeastern Montana Thursday
afternoon and night. Other severe storms with damaging wind will be
possible from southern Minnesota into a portion of the Great Lakes.
...Synopsis...
The synoptic upper pattern will remain characterized by a cutoff
upper low over the northwest states and a low amplitude ridge over
the northern Plains. The upper low will drift only very slowly
east during the period. A well-defined MCV associated with storms
ongoing over the central Plains early this morning will continue
through the upper ridge and into the Great Lakes region. At the
surface a quasi-stationary front will reside from the southern
Great Lakes westward into the northern High Plains. A cold front
will move slowly east through the northern Rockies, reaching eastern
MT toward the end of this period.
...Montana through western ND...
Easterly near-surface winds will persist over the northern Plains
north of the stationary front resulting in westward advection of
boundary layer moisture with dewpoints in the 50s F expected across
central MT and near 60 F in the eastern part of the state. With
steep lapse rates already in place, MLCAPE should climb to around
1500 J/kg as the surface layer warms during the day. Another
in a series of vorticity maxima will rotate through the upper
low circulation and into the northern Rockies during the time
of peak destabilization, and storms should redevelop over the
higher terrain and spread northeast into central and northeast
MT. A mid-upper jet along the southeastern periphery of the upper
low will contribute to 40-50 kt effective bulk shear supportive of
supercell storms as the initial mode. Very large hail and damaging
wind will be the main threats. Veering low-level wind profiles with
height will contribute to sufficient 0-2 km storm relative helicity
for low-level mesocyclones, and a few tornadoes will be possible
especially toward early evening north of the front across central
and northern MT where LCLs should be lower. Storms may eventually
congeal into an MCS and spread east, reaching western ND overnight
with a continued threat for damaging wind.
...Southern Minnesota into the Great Lakes...
An organized MCS ongoing over western SD will reach southern MN
between 12-15Z today and might pose an ongoing threat for damaging
wind. A well-defined MCV is associated with this MCS. The boundary
layer will become moderately to strongly unstable downstream along
and south of a warm front from southern MN into southern WI. Storms
may redevelop or ongoing storms may intensify as the atmosphere
destabilizes. Activity may reorganize as a forward propagating MCS
and continue east through the southern Great Lakes, generally in
vicinity of the warm front. Damaging wind will be the main threat.
Given potential for an organized wind event, an upgrade to enhanced
might be required for a portion of this region once uncertainties
regarding details of the convective and mesoscale evolution have
been mitigated.
..Dial/Cook.. 06/27/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256
AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are expected across
parts of central to northeast Montana into western North Dakota on
Friday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with
these storms.
...Montana into the Dakotas...
A lobe of the Pacific Northwest upper low will eject northeast into
Alberta on Friday, leaving a somewhat weaker/broader trough across
the Pacific Coast. Strong southwesterly 500 mb winds of 50-70 kt will
continue to stream across much of Montana, while easterly low-level
flow maintaface heating and stabilization.
..Cook.. 06/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Over the years, I've developed my sense of deja vu so acutely that now I
can remember things that *have* happened before ...
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