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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.07.19 07:07z 259 Lines 12927 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 04 07
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Sent: 190704/0700Z 28103@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 481 SEVERE TSTM SD 040010Z - 040700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 PM CDT Wed
Jul 3 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central South Dakota
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 710 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage and
intensity over western and central South Dakota. This activity
will build eastward through the evening, posing a risk of damaging
winds and hail in the stronger cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Mobridge SD to 50 miles south of Chamberlain SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 479...WW 480...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 27030.
...Hart
WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE MHN TO
25 S ANW TO 35 NNE ANW.
..BUNTING..07/04/19
ATTN...WFO...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-103-115-149-040540-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ANW TO
30 NNW 9V9 TO 35 NNE PIR TO 25 W MBG TO 50 E Y22.
..BUNTING..07/04/19
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-005-013-015-017-021-023-035-043-045-049-053-059-069-073-
089-111-115-129-040540-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BROWN BRULE
BUFFALO CAMPBELL CHARLES MIX DAVISON
DOUGLAS EDMUNDS FAULK GREGORY HAND
HYDE JERAULD MCPHERSON SANBORN
SPINK WALWORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E Y22 TO 35
NW MBG TO 45 SW JMS TO 20 ESE JMS TO 40 SE GFK.
..BUNTING..07/04/19
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 480
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-107-167-040440-
MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY NORMAN WILKIN
NDC003-017-021-029-045-047-051-073-077-081-040440-
ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS DICKEY EMMONS
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CDR TO
45 WNW CDR TO 20 ENE CPR.
..BUNTING..07/04/19
ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-123-
137-040340-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER
HAAKON HARDING JACKSON LAWRENCE
MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS
TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH
WYC005-009-011-027-045-040340-
WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK NIOBRARA
WESTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245
AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
WY TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of central Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. Large hail,
severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible. Gusty
winds may also accompany storms over the eastern United States from
Maryland to northern Florida.
...WY/Central Plains...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over eastern OR into central CA. This feature is forecast
to advance into ID/NV/UT region by 05/00z as stronger mid-level
flow translates downstream across WY into the Dakotas. Latest model
guidance suggests 500mb temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
than Wednesday which should aid mid-level lapse rates ahead of the
upper trough. Additionally, boundary-layer flow should respond to
this feature encouraging northeasterly low-level flow which will
draw higher moisture deep into WY prior to afternoon initiation.
Latest thinking is surface temperatures will warm rapidly across
southern into central WY such that convective temperatures should
be breached by 21z. Scattered supercells are expected to develop
ahead of the trough, initiating across west-central into central
WY. This activity will spread/develop east ingesting a fairly
moist and buoyant air mass characterized by surface-based cape
on the order of 3000 J/kg. Large hail should be common with
initial supercell development, along with the possibility for a
few tornadoes. With time, convection should spread toward the NE
Panhandle where clustering may contribute to an increasing threat for
severe wind gusts, especially if an organized line evolves. Several
of the latest CAMs support this scenario and an MCS may ultimately
evolve by late evening over the central Plains as LLJ strengthens
into the progressive convection.
...Eastern US...
Minimal changes to the large-scale pattern are expected across
the eastern US through Thursday. High-PW air mass characterized
by values near 2" from FL into the Middle Atlantic will result in
scattered thunderstorms by mid day. Very moist profiles and poor
lapse rates suggest greatest risk with weakly sheared convection
will be from wet microbursts. For these reasons will maintain 5%
severe probs to account for damaging wind potential with collapsing,
slow-moving storms.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 07/04/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228
AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
on Friday from the High Plains into the lower to mid Missouri and
upper Mississippi Valleys.
...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi
Valleys... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place
across the north-central states on Friday as multiple minor shortwave
troughs move eastward through the flow. At the surface, a cold front
is forecast to move southward into the northern Kansas, northern
Missouri, eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin by afternoon. Ahead
of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F
will result in several pockets of moderate to strong instability.
Thunderstorms that develop along the front are forecast to move
eastward into the stronger instability where steep low-level lapse
rates and enough deep-layer shear should be in place for a marginal
severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be the primary
threats during the late afternoon and early evening.
...High Plains... A shortwave upper-level ridge will build over
the central and northern Rockies on Friday as westerly mid-level
flow remains over much of the High Plains. At the surface, a
corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to extend from
western Kansas northwestward into eastern Colorado and southeast
Wyoming. Pockets of moderate instability may develop along this
corridor by afternoon. Storms that develop in the higher terrain
should spread eastward into the High Plains during the late
afternoon. The instability combined with steep mid-level lapse
rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a
marginal severe threat. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms during the late
afternoon and early evening.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 07/04/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis... General upper-level troughing will continue over
much of the western CONUS with an upper-level shortwave trough
moving over the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies
today. A surface front will likely extend southwest to northeast
from central Nevada into southwest Wyoming with surface pressure
troughing extending across central Utah into southern Nevada and
the Lower Colorado River Valley.
Elevated conditions will develop across portions southern/eastern
Nevada, southern/eastern Utah, much of Arizona, and western
Colorado into far southern Wyoming. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph
with RH values of 8-20% are likely during the afternoon and evening
south/east of a surface front across the central Intermountain West.
Additionally, southerly flow into far southeast Arizona/southern New
Mexico will increase dewpoints/RH limiting the fire weather threat.
Fine fuels are receptive across the elevated area and some areas
of Arizona have ERCs above the 90th percentile.
High-based, fast-moving thunderstorms are likely to develop across
northeast Nevada into southeast Idaho and northern Utah this
afternoon/evening. However, given these storms will likely move
over largely unreceptive fuels (pockets of fine fuels are cured),
an isolated dry thunderstorm area was not included.
..Nauslar.. 07/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper-level heights will rise over the Rockies
with troughing continuing over the West Coast including a shortwave
trough approaching the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Mid-level flow
will weaken over the Intermountain West and moisture will begin to
increase over New Mexico and portions of southeast Arizona. Weak
surface pressure troughing will extend out of the Lower Colorado
River Valley northward into the Columbia Basin. While a dry airmass
will remain in place across much of Arizona, Great Basin, and into
the Snake River Plain and Western Slope of Colorado, surface winds
will stay below elevated/critical thresholds.
..Nauslar.. 07/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Dawn, n.:
The time when men of reason go to bed.
-- Ambrose Bierce, "The Devil's Dictionary"
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