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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.07.19 07:03z 135 Lines 7273 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28917_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 24 07
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190724/0700Z 28917@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219
AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS REGION...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms with downburst
winds and hail will be possible later this afternoon and evening
across the northern High Plains region.
...Northern High Plains...
Shortwave trough currently moving through the Pacific Northwest will
crest the northern extension of an upper ridge centered over the
Great Basin and continue through southern Saskatchewan later today.
Associated cold front will reach western MT later this morning
and continue east into central ND through western NE by the end of
this period. Latest observational data show low 60s F dewpoints in
pre-frontal warm sector from eastern MT into the Dakotas. A corridor
of moderate instability (1500-2500 /kg MLCAPE) will evolve this
afternoon as diabatic heating commences and steeper mid-level lapse
rates accompanying an elevated mixed layer advect eastward above the
moist sector. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain
of WY during the afternoon and spread eastward into the northern
High Plains. Other storms may develop along the cold front through
eastern MT before moving into western ND. The deeper forcing for
ascent and stronger winds aloft accompanying the shortwave trough
should remain along and north of the international border. However,
veering low-level wind profiles with 30-40 kt effective bulk shear
may support a few storms with mid-level updraft rotation. A few
locally strong to damaging gusts and hail will be possible with
storms that initiate in this environment. However, given expected
isolated to sparse storm coverage, will maintain MRGL risk category
this update.
..Dial/Bentley.. 07/24/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday across
portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
...Synopsis... An upper-level low will move east across the
southern Canadian Prairie Provinces on Thursday, with associated
height falls and a belt of stronger mid-level flow developing across
the Dakotas/upper Midwest. A cold front will move east in tandem
with the upper low, extending from northwest MN into western NE
early Thursday evening. A quasi-stationary front will extend from
northern FL west into the central Gulf of Mexico. High pressure
aloft will extend over much of the southern U.S..
...Dakotas into upper Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop Thursday in advance of the cold front as
modest large-scale forcing for ascent develops in association with
the approaching upper low. Surface dew points in the 60s will
contribute to moderate surface-based instability, and 30-40 kts of
deep-layer shear will be supportive of updraft organization including
supercells with a risk for large hail and strong/damaging gusts.
With the large-scale forcing expected to develop towards the
evening/overnight hours and substantial CINH evident on forecast
soundings, storm initiation may not occur until late afternoon or
perhaps early evening. Weak warm/moist advection associated with
a 30-35 kt low-level jet may contribute to storm maintenance into
the late evening hours before nocturnally increasing CINH results
in a weakening trend overnight.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Bunting.. 07/24/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN MONTANA...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move through the northern
Rockies today. This trough passage may lead to critical fire
weather conditions in the Snake River Valley in Idaho and in
northern Montana.
...northern Montana... Unseasonably strong mid-level flow in
excess of 50 knots will overspread the northern Rockies today as
a shortwave trough moves through southern Alberta. The passage
of this trough will lead to strengthening dry downslope flow in
northern Montana. Wind speeds are expected to be in the 25 to 35 mph
range with relative humidity dropping to around 20 percent yielding
critical fire weather conditions. Some higher resolution guidance
suggests less than 20% relative humidity may be more localized
with 20 to 25 percent RH more widespread. Even if surface relative
humidity is a bit higher, a critical fire weather area would still
be justified given the strength of the surface winds.
...the Snake River Valley in Idaho... While most of the stronger
mid-level flow will be in northern Idaho and Montana, good alignment
of the low to mid-level winds combined with deep mixing during the
afternoon is expected to lead to winds around 20 mph in the Snake
River valley this afternoon and evening. In addition, surface
relative humidities are expected to be in the 10 to 15 percent
range. Therefore, a critical fire weather delineation is justified
for the Snake River valley.
..Bentley.. 07/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be present
across Montana and North Dakota on Thursday. Deep mixing will
bring some of these stronger mid-level winds toward the surface in
northern Montana and North Dakota. In addition, surface relative
humidity is expected to be in the 15 to 20 percent range across
most of Montana. Farther east in North Dakota, relative humidity
values will be higher which should significantly lower the fire
weather risk across these areas. Elsewhere in the western CONUS,
dry conditions will be present in much of California, the Pacific
Northwest, and the north-central Rockies, but winds are expected
to be light enough to limit fire weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 07/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Most people can't understand how others can blow their noses differently
than they do.
-- Turgenev
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