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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.08.19 10:45z 250 Lines 14423 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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MD 1673 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1673 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2019
Areas affected...Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 080601Z - 080830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A potential for hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will exist tonight along a west-northwest to east-southeast corridor
from northwest to southeast Kansas. Although weather watch issuance
appears unlikely, the situation will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary
front located from southwest Kansas into northern Oklahoma. An axis
of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP to the north of the
front where MLCAPE is peaked in the 2,000 to 2,500 J/kg range. A
cluster of strong thunderstorms is located near the Colorado-Kansas
line just to the west of the strongest instability. These storms
will continue to move eastward into the instability maximum over the
next few hours helping to sustain updraft intensity. The Goodland
WSR-88D VWP has about 30 kt of deep-layer shear. This combined with
mid-level lapse rates around 8.0 C/km (evident on the RAP analysis)
should support hail with the stronger updrafts. Marginally severe
wind gusts will also be possible along the leading edge of the MCS.
Further to the southeast across central and southeastern Kansas,
MLCIN is substantially stronger. For this reason, the convection
will remain be elevated in nature tonight. Even so, instability aloft
and effective shear around 30 kt as estimated by the RAP and evident
on regional WSR-88D VWPs should support a marginal hail threat.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39609890 38479607 37729509 37379493 37129508 37019540
37109607 37479677 38079797 38709973 38990092 39100165 39530190
39900150 40030056 39609890
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148
PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA...
...SUMMARY... Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are
likely from the Ohio Valley eastward into central New York and
Pennsylvania. Isolated severe hail is possible across parts of the
High Plains.
...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will stretch
from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. A
leading wave will move across New England during the day, with a
secondary stronger wave moving into western NY and PA by 00Z. A
cold front will progress across Lakes Ontario and Erie by 18Z,
and will trail westward across central OH and IN. Ahead of the
front, widespread low to mid 60s F dewpoints will exist beneath
cool profiles aloft supporting strong to locally severe storms.
To the west, an upper ridge will exist over the Rockies, with
northwest flow over the Plains. A weak area of low pressure will
exist over the TX Panhandle and western OK, with a stationary front
extending eastward over northern OK or near the KS border. Ample
low-level moisture will exist over the central Plains, with easterly
winds north of the front aiding destabilization across the High
Plains late in the day.
...OH Valley into the Northeast... An arcing line of storms is
likely to develop by 18Z from western NY into northwest PA along
the cold front, with additional development westward into OH and
IN later in the afternoon. Northwest flow aloft will have a large
component perpendicular to the boundary, with strong winds in the
upper levels. This suggests the dominant storm mode will be cellular,
with large hail likely. Little low-level shear/SRH suggests very
low tornado risk, though damaging winds will be possible as storms
form during peak heating with steep boundary layer lapse rates and
25-30 kt westerly 850 mb winds.
...Central and northern High Plains and northern Oklahoma into
southern Kansas... Strong heating will occur beneath the upper
ridge, while easterly surface winds maintain 50s dewpoints into
eastern WY and CO. This will support afternoon development over
the higher terrain, with activity slowly moving eastward through
evening. Weak low-level winds beneath modest mid to upper flow
will support a few slow-moving cells or propagating outflows,
with marginal hail or wind will be possible.
To the east into OK and KS, convection is likely to be ongoing
early in the day north of the front from KS into western MO in a
warm advection regime. Heating will occur upstream across TX and OK,
resulting in areas of strong instability. New development is likely
during the late afternoon and evening along the east-west front,
with locally severe wind gusts or hail possible.
..Jewell/Cook.. 08/08/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259
AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OREGON AND OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the northern Plains, as well as parts of central Oregon,
Friday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the main concern.
...Central Oregon Vicinity...
South/southwesterly deep layer flow will strengthen on Friday
as an upper low pivots eastward over northern CA and OR. This
deep-layer southerly flow will bring monsoonal moisture northward
into the region, and surface dewpoints climbing into the low to
mid 50s are possible. As heights fall and temperatures aloft cool,
steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, while strong
surface heating results in scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon. MLCAPE values will generally range from 500-1000
J/kg and effective shear greater than 35 kt is forecast. This
should result in organized cells with rotating updrafts capable of
large hail. Additionally, where deep boundary-layer mixing occurs,
inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest cells also will
pose a locally damaging wind threat. While not expected to be the
main threat, guidance does suggest there could be a threat for a
weak/brief tornado over central OR as a southeastward-progressing
cold front moves toward the area after 00z. Any cells interacting
with the boundary could result in lowered LCLs and enhanced SRH.
However, this threat appears rather conditional and uncertain.
...Northern Plains into the Central High Plains Vicinity...
The upper ridge will continue to be oriented from central TX
north/northwest into MT on Friday. A couple of shortwave impulses
are forecast to migrate through the ridge, providing support
for strong to severe storms. The first, and stronger impulse,
will eject eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains. This should allow suppression of the upper ridge and
associated midlevel capping through increased forcing for ascent,
as boundary-layer moisture increases on strengthening low-level
southeasterly flow. A weak low/surface trough will extend from
eastern MT into western SD and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon along this boundary and shift east through
the evening. Midlevel lapse rates will be unimpressive across the
region due to warm temperatures aloft under the influence of the
upper ridge, but strong heating and surface dewpoints in the 60s
will result in moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3500)
in the presence of supercell vertical wind profiles. In fact, long,
straight forecast hodographs indicate potential for storms dominated
by hail production. Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates will
support locally damaging winds as well.
Some guidance suggest some upscale growth is possible as a 40 kt
southerly low level jet develops during the evening across central
NE/SD. If this occurs, a damaging wind threat could develop and
probabilities may need adjusted in subsequent outlooks.
More subtle monsoon-related impulses will float across the central
Rockies and trigger thunderstorms over higher terrain during the
afternoon. While deep-layer flow is weaker compared to further north,
effective shear around 40 kt and steep lapse rates in the presence
of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE should maintain storms eastward over the
adjacent High Plains. Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts
will be the main concern with this convection.
...Ozarks into northern MS and western TN...
Guidance continues to suggest that a likely MCV will progress
east/southeast from the Ozarks into northern MS. A very moist and
unstable downstream airmass will support strong to severe storms,
with damaging winds being the main concern, aided by PW values
greater than 2 inches and effective shear greater than 25 kt.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Leitman.. 08/08/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis... Deep southerly flow between a longwave trough over
the northeastern Pacific and a longwave ridge centered over the Great
Basin will maintain mid-level moisture in a corridor from Nevada
northward to northern Washington State today. Heating beneath
this moist plume will promote areas of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms, which will serve as the main focus for fire weather
threats across the West.
...Nevada, Idaho, southwestern Montana, central and eastern Oregon,
and central and eastern Washington State... The aforementioned
synoptic pattern and surface heating will foster development
and gradual expansion of convective coverage - likely beginning
around mid-morning across Nevada and expanding northward through the
afternoon and evening. These storms will occur atop widespread areas
of dry fuels, favoring lightning-related fire ignition and spread.
Additionally, gusty/erratic downburst winds will complicate fire
suppression efforts near ongoing fires in the region.
The greatest coverage of storms is expected to occur across portions
of Nevada during the afternoon, where 40%+ coverage of lightning
strikes are expected. The primary limiting factor for a greater
fire-weather threat in this area will be wetting thunderstorm cores
and the likelihood of upscale growth of convection into bands/linear
segments. The wetting rainfall should keep dry lightning relatively
isolated in this area. Likewise, slow-moving convection across
Idaho/southwestern Montana should also limit the extent of dry
lightning and also result in heavy rainfall in localized areas.
The extent of isolated dry lightning strikes will eventually reach
Washington State later in the day (late afternoon through early
evening).
..Cook.. 08/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis... The overall synoptic pattern should remain similar
throughout the D2/Thu forecast period. A longwave trough will begin
to make eastward progression toward Oregon and northern California,
resulting in strengthening mid-level flow from Nevada northward
through western Idaho as a mid-level ridge keeps hold over the
central Rockies and vicinity. Lift from the approaching trough and
maintenance of mid-level moisture should promote a few thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening, while strengthening wind fields
will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather in the
western Great Basin.
...Much of Nevada and far northeastern California for dry/windy
conditions... Vertical mixing processes beneath strengthening
flow aloft and a strengthening surface trough across the region
will result in areas of 20+ mph surface winds from afternoon onward,
especially from southern and central Nevada northwestward through the
lee of the Sierras. While critical wind fields will be exceeded in
a few areas, RH values will be borderline critical based on latest
forecast guidance. Furthermore, areas of thunderstorm development
should also temper boundary-layer RH values in a few areas, with
any critical fire weather conditions being brief and localized.
Fuels are dry, however, and fire spread may occur with any ongoing
fires especially where critical thresholds can be met for any length
of time.
...Much of Oregon, far northern California, northern/central Nevada,
and western Idaho for thunderstorms... Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop from afternoon onward and
should move north fairly quickly (25-35 kts) given the enhanced
mid-level wind fields across the region. Cores should be wetter
than in the previous day, however, given higher tropospheric moisture
content and greater lift/ascent associated with the approach of the
mid-level trough. Still, scattered, northward-moving clusters of
storms should be most concentrated across southern/central Oregon and
northeast Nevada/southwest Idaho and will be capable of isolated dry
lightning strikes that will cause a few fire starts given dry fuels.
..Cook.. 08/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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