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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.08.19 07:03z 179 Lines 9840 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29848_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 13 08
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190813/0701Z 29848@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239
AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across
the southern Middle Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley. Severe
thunderstorms should also develop across the central High Plains.
...Middle Atlantic/TN Valley...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a mid-level vort max over
central IL which appears to be partly responsible for organized
deep convection over the lower OH Valley. This feature is forecast
to progress east-southeast across the OH Valley and leading edge of
affiliated MCS is expected to spread into WV shortly after sunrise.
Considerable amount of clouds/precipitation should limit buoyancy
across the central Appalachians while models favor stronger
boundary-layer heating downstream across the Piedmont. For these
reasons will lower severe probs across WV/western VA and orient ENH
Risk east of the mountains where renewed thunderstorm development
is expected by early afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary
severe threat with scattered severe storms as they organize across
the Piedmont. While initial convection may be cellular in nature,
line segments capable of producing wind should mature across the
southern Delmarva into southern VA.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected to develop along
weak frontal zone as it sags southeast across KY/TN during the
afternoon. This activity will evolve along southern fringe of modest
northwesterly flow which should contribute to some organization.
Strong storms may spread as far south as northern AL by late evening.
...Central High Plains...
Weak mid-level height rises are forecast across the Great Basin
Tuesday which should maintain modest 500mb flow across the central
High Plains along the front side of southwestern U.S. anticyclone.
While it's not evident that any meaningful disturbance will approach
southern WY/NE, strong boundary-layer heating is forecast across
eastern WY/CO. Forecast soundings suggest surface parcels will
reach their convective temperatures by 20-21z. Early-evening CAMs
aggressively develop convection across this region with supercell
structures forecast early in the convective cycle. Local hail
algorithm generates hail in excess of 2" and this seems reasonable
given the steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy. There is
some concern that scattered supercells will merge into an MCS that
should propagate southeast across western KS toward northwestern
OK during the overnight hours. Wind threat should increase if an
organized squall line emerges across this region.
...Upper MS Valley...
Notable short-wave trough is beginning to dig southeast across
the northern Plains. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature
is forecast to spread across southeast MN/western WI by early
afternoon. In response to the short wave, weak surface low will
develop over southeast MN which should enhance low-level convergence
for isolated thunderstorm development. 00z NAM suggests strong
boundary-layer heating will be noted into this feature which will
result in convective temperatures being breached by 20-21z. Will
maintain 5% severe probs across this region due to the expected
isolated nature of convection.
..Darrow/Cook.. 08/13/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231
AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms with damaging hail
and wind will be possible over the central High Plains Wednesday
afternoon and evening, with isolated severe wind gusts from parts
of the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas.
...Synopsis... Northwest flow aloft will stretch from the Pacific
Northwest across the northern Rockies and into the central Plains
with a low-amplitude shortwave trough entering the northern High
Plains late in the day. To the east, another wave will move across
northern New England, with relatively cool temperatures aloft
remaining over the OH Valley beneath westerly flow.
At the surface, relatively dry air will exist from the northern
Plains eastward across the Great Lakes and into New England, while a
weak surface trough extends from the Mid Atlantic across the northern
Gulf Coast and into central TX. Seasonally moist conditions will
exist along the southern boundary supporting scattered afternoon
storms. To the west, a lee trough will develop over the central
High Plains where southeasterly surface winds will maintain moist
and unstable conditions beneath moderate northwest winds aloft,
favoring severe storms.
...Central High Plains... Southeast surface winds will maintain mid
50s to near 60 F dewpoints to the Front Range as strong heating
reduces capping, possibly in the wake of storms the previous
night. Storms are expected to initiate around 21Z from eastern WY
across the Black Hills, and southward into northeast CO. Relatively
long hodographs will favor splitting cells capable of large hail. An
MCS is possible by evening into western NE or northwest KS as the
low-level jet increases to 30 kt out of the south. A brief tornado
cannot be ruled out with any right-moving supercells.
...Gulf Coast States to the Carolinas... Strong heating of a
moist air mass will lead to strong instability by afternoon, with
MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg from the Sabine River to the eastern
Carolinas. Convergence near the boundary will provide a focus for
storms, with very weak winds aloft favoring pulse severe capable
of localized damaging winds, perhaps with small hail.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Jewell.. 08/13/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149
AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across much of the
central Plains on Thursday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of 30-40 kt midlevel winds,
increasing to 50-60 kt in the upper levels, will stretch from the
northern Rockies across the central Plains and into the mid MS
Valley on Thursday with various embedded disturbances within the
flow. In general, a trough of low pressure is forecast to develop
over the central and southern High Plains, with mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints to about I-70 in KS. Given relatively cool temperatures
aloft, this will result in areas of strong instability over parts
of the central Plains.
Complicating the forecast will be the possibility of early storms
moving across parts of NE and KS, likely situated on the nose of
a 20-30 kt low-level jet. Some of these storms may produce locally
severe wind gusts. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of
any outflow boundaries may serve as a focus for new development,
again with an MCS possible with damaging wind potential. At this
time, predictability is too low to place a Slight Risk.
Farther north, storms are expected to develop by late morning or
midday over SD in association with a low-amplitude wave moving out
of MT. Here, cold temperatures aloft and long hodographs will favor
both hail and wind as storms form along a weak cold front.
Finally, isolated storms capable of hail are possible along the
Front Range during the peak heating hours, with cold profiles aloft
beneath ample westerlies.
Parts of the area will likely be upgraded to a Slight Risk in later
outlooks when predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 08/13/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally
unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow
aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today.
Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain
relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas.
Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be
introduced for this outlook.
..Cook.. 08/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly
as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak
ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will
remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are
cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout
the forecast period.
..Cook.. 08/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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