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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.08.19 10:04z 278 Lines 14096 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 12 08
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190812/0700Z 29766@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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WW 574 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 120240Z - 121000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Sun
Aug 11 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Kansas
South-Central Nebraska
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 940 PM until
500 AM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds expected
with scattered significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large
hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter
possible A couple tornadoes possible
SUMMARY...A developing bow echo over northwest Kansas will move
rapidly eastward overnight, posing a risk of widespread damaging
wind gusts across the watch area. Large hail and a tornado or two
are also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest
of Hill City KS to 15 miles south southeast of Beatrice NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 571...WW 572...WW 573...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
26040.
...Hart
WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE RSL TO
35 SSE HSI TO 25 SE HSI TO 30 SSW EAR TO 20 W EAR.
..KERR..08/12/19
ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...GLD...GID...ICT...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 574
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC027-029-089-105-123-143-157-201-120740-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLOUD JEWELL LINCOLN
MITCHELL OTTAWA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON
NEC001-019-035-059-067-079-081-093-095-099-109-121-129-143-151-
159-163-169-185-120740-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FILLMORE
GAGE HALL HAMILTON HOWARD
JEFFERSON KEARNEY LANCASTER MERRICK NUCKOLLS
POLK SALINE SEWARD SHERMAN
THAYER YORK
WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BHK TO
30 SE OLF TO 65 NNE OLF.
..KERR..08/12/19
ATTN...WFO...GGW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC021-083-085-109-120640-
MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAWSON RICHLAND ROOSEVELT WIBAUX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO
25 E GLD TO 40 S MCK TO 20 WSW MCK TO 55 ENE SNY.
..GOSS..08/12/19
ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 572
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC039-063-109-179-193-120440-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR GOVE LOGAN SHERIDAN
THOMAS
NEC063-085-087-101-111-135-145-120440-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH
LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E CDR TO
30 SW PHP TO 30 NW PHP TO 65 NNE RAP TO 35 SSE 2WX TO 45 SW 2WX TO
25 SSE 4BQ TO 30 SE SHR.
..COOK..08/12/19
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 571
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-120340-
MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON
POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE
SDC007-055-063-071-095-105-121-123-137-120340-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT HAAKON HARDING JACKSON
MELLETTE PERKINS TODD TRIPP
ZIEBACH
WYC033-120340-
WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MD 1713 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574... FOR NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1713 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019
Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into
northwest Missouri and southeast Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574...
Valid 120615Z - 120745Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity posing at least some continuing
risk for potentially damaging surface gusts probably will continue
through daybreak. A new severe thunderstorm watch likely will be
issued east of severe thunderstorm watch 574 within the next hour
or so.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development persists and continues
to spread northeastward and eastward across parts of southern
Nebraska and northern Kansas, accompanied by occasional strong to
severe wind gusts. Strongest gusts have recently been focused near
a lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic vorticity center now migrating
across the Kearney NE area, and along the leading edge of the
stronger/deeper portion of the surface cold pool approaching the
Concordia KS and Hebron NE areas.
North and east of a weak warm front, extending from its intersection
with the cold pool, roughly near the state border, east southeastward
into the Interstate 70 corridor of northeast Kansas, inflow of
somewhat cooler and more stable boundary layer air may weaken
convection during the next few hours as it approaches the Missouri
River.
Maintenance of strong thunderstorm development seems most likely
in closer proximity to the warm front, where forcing for ascent
associated with warm advection, on the nose of a 30-50 kt low-level
jet, will become focused by 3-5 AM, as the jet gradually continues
to veer from southerly to southwesterly. High moisture content
concentrated along the front is contributing to large CAPE of
2000-4000 J/kg, in the presence of strong deep layer shear (largely
due to veering of wind fields with height). Within this regime,
the evolution of another organizing cluster on the southern flank
of the ongoing activity appears possible.
..Kerr.. 08/12/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40379727 41009806 40809531 39709427 39009472 38869618
39079736 40379727
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235
AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
IA TO CENTRAL IL...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today over the
middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Damaging gusts are
the primary risk but a few tornadoes are possible.
...Mid MS/OH Valley Region...
An impressive amount of deep convection has developed over the
central Plains early this morning ahead of a disturbance that should
approach western IA by sunrise. A reservoir of untapped buoyancy
currently extends ahead of the MCS over eastern KS which should aid
eastward progression of organized convection into the beginning of
the upcoming day1 period. Latest NAM model guidance suggests leading
edge of this activity will be near the MO River at sunrise; however,
current speed/movement of the convection is considerably faster and
storms could advance into western IA by 09z. It's not entirely clear
whether the MCS will slow its forward propagation so confidence in
timing/placement of this complex of storms is somewhat in doubt.
Current outlook is predicated on MCS slowing a bit toward sunrise.
For these reasons have adjusted severe probs west across IA/northern
MO to account for possible severe at the beginning of the period. If
boundary layer is able to warm/destabilize ahead of this activity,
as NAM currently depicts, environmental parameters would seem
supportive of organized convection continuing downstream, with some
upward evolution expected by late morning. If convection maintains
MCS structure then damaging winds will be the primary threat.
However, forecast soundings across southeast IA into west-central IL
exhibit favorable CAPE/shear for supercells and possible tornadoes.
Will introduce low tornado probs to account for possible discrete
updrafts by early afternoon.
...Eastern Dakotas...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over MT/WY shifting east toward the northern Plains. This
feature is forecast to advance into the western Dakotas by 13/00z
where it should aid scattered convection along/ahead of progressive
wind shift. Hail/wind are the primary risks with scattered storms
later today.
...ME...
Weak mid-level height falls are forecast to spread south across
ME later Monday. Deep westerly flow should allow boundary layer to
warm such that inhibition is removed by 17z ahead of a zone of weak
low-level confluence. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
across northern New England within a flow regime that could support
storm organization capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts.
..Darrow/Cook.. 08/12/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon and
early evening over the Middle Atlantic into southern portion of
the Ohio Valley. Other strong to severe storms are possible over
the Tennessee Valley and the central High Plains.
...Middle Atlantic and southern Ohio Valley regions...
A convectively enhanced vorticity maximum embedded within a broad
upper trough should reach OH by 12Z Tuesday, and this feature will
continue east into the Northeast States and the northern portion
of the Mid Atlantic during the day. At the start of the period a
cold front will extend from a weak low over IN southwestward into
northern TX. A warm or stationary front will stretch eastward
from the low into southern PA. Storms will likely be ongoing
from OH to western PA within zone of isentropic ascent north of
stationary front. South of this activity, diabatic warming of the
moistening surface layer will result in moderate instability with
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Additional storms should develop
by late morning or afternoon in vicinity of the warm front across
southern PA and northern VA, as well as farther south and west over
the higher terrain and spread eastward into the warm sector. The
NAM indicates the strongest kinematic environment, but might be
overdone with convective feedback. Nevertheless, this region will
reside within belt of moderate westerlies with 30-40 kt effective
bulk shear supportive of organized storms including supercells. If
enough destabilization can occur along the warm front, low-level
hodographs may become supportive of a few tornadoes. Otherwise
damaging wind will be the main threat.
Other storms are expected to develop along southwestern extension
of the cold front, especially from KY into the TN Valley during the
afternoon where both the thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space
should support mostly multicells and line segments with damaging
wind the main threats.
...Central High Plains...
A few storms are expected to develop along a lee trough and higher
terrain within an evolving easterly post-frontal regime across the
central High Plains. Modest low-level moisture beneath steep lapse
rates will support up to 2000 j/kg MLCAPE, and this region will
reside within belt of modest northwesterly winds aloft with 30-35
effective bulk shear. This environment may support a few instances
of large hail and strong wind gusts before activity weakens by mid
evening. Due to uncertainties regarding storm coverage will leave
MRGL this update, but this region will continue to be monitored
for a possible SLGT risk in later outlooks.
...Upper Mississippi Valley region...
Isolated storms may develop over the upper Midwest in association
with a southeast-advancing shortwave trough and within a weakly
unstable environment. A belt of stronger unidirectional winds aloft
will support up to 40 kt effective bulk shear. A few storms could
produce locally strong wind gusts and hail, but overall threat
should remain marginal.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
30% - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight
..Dial.. 08/12/2019
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