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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.08.19 10:04z 97 Lines 5497 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29132_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 29 07
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190729/0701Z 29132@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.17
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239
AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms capable of hail and
strong gusty winds are possible this afternoon and evening across
parts of the central High Plains and from the Ozarks into the mid
Mississippi Valley.
...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move eastward
across the central and northern Rockies today. At the surface,
a lee trough will strengthen in the central High Plains. Backed
surface winds to the east of the surface trough will result in a
corridor of maximized low-level moisture from western Kansas into
southwestern Nebraska. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the
early afternoon in the higher terrain of north-central Colorado and
southeast Wyoming, spreading eastward into the High Plains during
the mid to late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates combined
with directional wind shear in the low to mid-levels will create
conditions sufficient for a marginal severe threat. As cells move
eastward into increasing instability during the late afternoon,
strong wind gusts and hail will be possible.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move
eastward into the Western Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley
today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across north-central Illinois and central Missouri during the
afternoon. Surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to moderate
instability ahead of the front. Cells that initiate along the front
will move east-southeastward across the corridor of instability
during the late afternoon. Although deep-layer shear should remain
weak, steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for marginally
severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 07/29/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Strong, locally severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the northeastern U.S as well
as parts of the northern High Plains.
...Portions of the Northeast...
The upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will shift slowly eastward
on Tuesday. Deep layer southwesterly flow will remain generally
weak across the region, though most guidance does depict a zone of
around 25-30 kt effective shear from roughly western PA/NY toward
the Champlain Valley vicinity. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s and strong surface heating ahead of an approaching cold front
will allow for weak to moderate destabilization by early afternoon.
Modest midlevel lapse rates and weak shear will act to temper the
severe threat. However, PW values around 1.50-1.75 inches and steep
low level lapse rates will support downdraft dominant storms in weak
low level shear environment, and some clusters and/or line segments
could become organized along the front or through outflow/storm-scale
interactions. As a result, sporadic strong, locally damaging wind
gusts are possible during the afternoon and early evening.
...Northern and Central High Plains Vicinity...
A more conditional threat will exist across parts of eastern
MT/WY into western SD and northwest NE late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. A shortwave impulse will migrate through the intense
western upper ridge, providing a source of subtle forcing aloft in a
moist, upslope flow regime. However, midlevel temperatures will be
quite warm as this area remain on the periphery of a strong EML. A
large area of upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will overspread the
northern Plains and extend westward across eastern WY/MT, where
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside. Some guidance suggests capping
will preclude storm initiation across eastern WY into SD/NE while
other guidance develops at least a couple of storms. If storms
can form in this environment, long, straight hodographs and 40+
kt effective shear will support rotating storms capable of large
hail, and if surface-based, strong outflow winds.
Further north, greater instability and stronger low level convergence
along a surface trough/weak surface front and cooler midlevel
temperatures will likely lead to a better chance of at least
widely scattered convection. As a south/southeasterly low level jet
increases during the evening, storms are expected to develop across
eastern MT and could produce large hail and perhaps some gusty winds.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Leitman.. 07/29/2019
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