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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.08.19 10:04z 148 Lines 8241 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29082_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 28 07
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190728/1011Z 29082@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241
AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms could produce locally
damaging wind gusts and hail across parts of the Upper Midwest late
this afternoon and early this evening.
...Upper Midwest... A shortwave ridge will move into the western
Great Lakes region today as a shortwave trough moves into the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move east-southeastward
across the eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints near 70 F should allow for destabilization during
the day. Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate just ahead of the
front from western Minnesota southward into far eastern Nebraska
by mid to late afternoon. A few additional storms may develop
eastward along a warm front from south-central Minnesota into central
Wisconsin. Model forecasts vary considerably on the distribution of
instability this afternoon but are mostly in agreement concerning the
deep-layer shear. 0-6 km shear should be in the 30 to 35 kt range
suggesting that an isolated severe threat could develop in areas
that destabilize the most. However, will retain a marginal risk due
to uncertainties concerning instability. A marginal wind damage
threat could develop as a multicell line segment moves eastward
across the region during the late afternoon and early evening.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 07/28/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of large hail are possible
Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the central High
Plains.
...Far northeast CO/southeast WY into southwest NE/northwest KS...
An upper anticyclone will be centered over the Four Corners/southern
Rockies vicinity on Monday. The associated upper ridge will extend
north/northeast across the central and northern High Plains. At the
same time, weak shortwave impulses migrating around the upper high
will result in enhancement of midlevel northwesterly flow across
the central Plains. Southeasterly upslope low level winds should
bring modest boundary layer moisture westward from northwest KS
into northeast CO/southwest NE and southeast WY. Some modest warming
aloft is possible, resulting in weak capping. However most guidance,
excepting the GFS, develops isolated storms across the region. Very
steep midlevel lapse rates beneath the upper ridge and modest,
vertically veering low level flow with long, straight hodographs
aloft indicate potential for very large hail. Additionally, a
well-mixed sub-cloud layer also could support locally strong wind
gusts from high-based supercells. Marginal probs will be introduced
for now given uncertainty in storm coverage and somewhat conditional
nature of the threat, through sig hail certainly appears possible
if storms develop.
Later in the evening, most guidance develops storms in warm advection
atop a strengthening EML with eastward extent into parts of southwest
NE/northwest KS. This activity will be elevated, but also could
support large hail.
...Midwest Vicinity...
Further east, an upper shortwave trough will slowly pivot eastward
over the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region. Clusters of convection
will likely be ongoing Monday morning along a surface cold front
from WI southwestward into MO and possibly as far southwest as OK.
Deep layer flow will generally be weak, but a band of around 30
kt 850-700 mb flow will extend from the Ozarks vicinity northeast
into MI during peak heating. Strong heating and rich boundary layer
moisture will result in moderate to strong instability downstream
of morning convection. A lack of stronger flow and weak forcing
should limit severe potential. However, if any cluster can become
better organized through cold pool generation or storm/outflow
interactions, some strong gusts are possible.
...Northeast...
Cold temperatures aloft will persist across the region as a weak
shortwave trough shift northeast. Weak deep layer westerlies and
modest lapse rates will limit storm organization despite mid 60s
dewpoints and weak to moderate instability. A few strong gusts are
possible from southern NY into southern New England, but overall
threat for organized severe convection appears low at this time.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Leitman.. 07/28/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis... Strong northwesterly mid-level flow in the
northern Rockies and northern Plains may lead to elevated fire
weather conditions in eastern Montana and from central Idaho and
southwest Wyoming.
...Eastern Montana... Deep afternoon mixing will transport stronger
mid-level winds to the surface in eastern Montana. These winds are
expected to peak around 20 to 25 mph with relative humidity between
20 and 25 percent. Made some adjustments to the Day 2 elevated
delineation to remove areas which received rainfall this evening
under the assumption that fine fuels will likely be too moist to
carry fire in this area.
...central Idaho to central Wyoming... Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible on the northern periphery of the dry
airmass in the Inter Mountain West from central Idaho into central
Wyoming. In this area, deep mixing is expected with surface winds
increasing to 15 to 20 mph. In addition, surface relative humidity
is expected to be around 10 to 15 percent. Slightly higher relative
humidity is likely in the higher terrain in western Wyoming, but
relative humidity should still be somewhat dry (20-25 percent),
and supportive of some fire spread.
..Bentley.. 07/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for
much of Nevada and adjacent areas on Monday In addition, some dry
thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho and southwestern Montana.
...Nevada and adjacent areas... Mid-level southwesterly flow
around 20 to 25 knots is expected over much of Nevada on Monday. As
mixing deepens during the afternoon, some of these stronger winds
are expected to mix toward the surface with wind speeds around 15
to 20 mph expected. Slightly higher wind speeds are expected in
favored downslope regions such as Nye county in southern Nevada
and portions of western Nevada north of Reno. The entire state
is expected to be quite dry with relative humidity between 7 and
15 percent. Therefore, an elevated fire weather area delineation
covers most of the state on Monday.
...Central Idaho and southwest Montana... Dry thunderstorms are
possible in portions of central Idaho and southwest Montana on
Monday. PWAT will be between 0.5 and 0.75" across the region and
cloud bases are expected to be near 10 kft. Some dry thunderstorms
are possible farther east in southern Montana and northwest Wyoming,
but questions about fuels preclude expansion of the IsoDryT area
at this time.
..Bentley.. 07/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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