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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.08.19 10:04z 165 Lines 9143 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28837_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 22 07
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 190722/0700Z 28837@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247
AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts
are expected from the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New
England today.
...Synopsis... The shortwave trough currently moving through
the Upper Midwest will continue eastward across the Upper Great
Lakes/Lower OH Valley today, reaching the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great
Lakes by early Tuesday morning. At the same time, upper ridging
centered over the Four Corners will build northward. The evolution
of these features will result in a highly amplified western CONUS
ridge/eastern CONUS trough pattern by the end of the period.
At the surface, a cold front currently extends from northwest OK
northeastward across southern MO through the central OH Valley into
central PA. Western portion of this front is expected to continue
progressing southward/southeastward. Eastern portions of this front
are also expected to move southward/southeastward, although with
slowly forward progress. By early Tuesday morning, this front is
expected to extend from the TX Hill Country eastward across the Lower
MS Valley and then northeastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic.
...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Dewpoints in
the low 70s are expected to be in place from northern VA/Delmarva
Peninsula into southern New England ahead of the approaching cold
front. Expectation is for showers and thunderstorms along the front
to gradually increase in strength and coverage as they encounter
this more moist and unstable air mass. In addition to this more
favorable low-level moisture, a deepening surface low along the
front will help strengthen surface convergence while the approaching
shortwave trough provides modest large-scale forcing for ascent. The
strongest vertical shear will be displaced north of the frontal
zone, but vertical shear along the front is still expected to be
strong enough for occasional updraft organization. A predominantly
linear, multicell mode is anticipated with damaging wind gusts as
the primary severe threat. Some isolated hail is also possible. A
non-zero tornado threat also exists, particularly near the surface
low and any backed surface winds.
...Mid-South through the TN Valley... Ongoing convective cluster
across MO is expected to gradually drift southeastward this morning,
eventually contributing to thunderstorm development across the
Mid-South as it encounters a moist and diurnally destabilizing
air mass. Vertical shear across the region will be weak but some
localized enhancement of the low/mid-level flow is possible near the
MCV. Strength of the MCV will dictate the severe coverage. Current
expectation is for a few damaging wind gusts within the strongest
storms.
...Southern/Central High Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the higher terrain of the southern and central High
Plains this afternoon. While the air mass across the Front Range
is not expected to be as unstable as the past few days, a severe
storm or two is still possible, particularly across the central
High Plains where stronger upper flow will result in more favorable
vertical shear.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 07/22/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254
AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind
gusts will be possible Tuesday across southern and eastern portions
of the Carolinas.
...Synopsis... An amplifying upper-level trough will shift slowly
east across the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. Tuesday while an
expansive anticyclone remains centered near the Four Corners region.
A southeastward-moving cold front will extend southwest from the
Delmarva peninsula across the central Gulf coast and south Texas by
Tuesday evening as a weak surface low develops over central NC and
lifts offshore along the front. A very moist air mass will remain
in place along and south of the front with widespread surface dew
points in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
...Southern/eastern NC and SC... Cloud cover will likely be
substantial across the mid-Atlantic region in the vicinity of the
frontal boundary given the very moist air mass characterized by
PW values of around 2 inches. The southern periphery of stronger
mid-level flow with the amplifying upper trough will reside in
this area and contribute to sufficient shear for organized storms,
especially where localized breaks in the clouds augment surface-based
instability. Clusters of thunderstorms should develop by early to
mid afternoon with a risk for damaging downburst winds.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
- Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Bunting.. 07/22/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through
central California this afternoon on the western edge of a ridge
centered over the Rockies. This shortwave will be responsible for
bringing elevated fire weather conditions as well as the potential
for dry thunderstorms across portions of western Nevada, northeast
California, southern Oregon, and southern Idaho.
...Northeast California, northwest Nevada, and southeast Oregon...
A combination of downslope flow and strengthening surface winds due
to daytime mixing may lead to elevated fire weather conditions from
northeast California into southeast Oregon. Winds are expected to
be in the 15 to 20 mph range with relative humidity in the 13 to
20 percent range.
...Western Nevada... Downslope flow is expected to develop in
portions of Esmeralda and Nye counties in western Nevada this
afternoon. Expect relative humidity around 10 to 15 percent and
winds in the 15 to 20 mph range in this area. Isolated critical
conditions may be possible in a few locations here, but the localized
area and the short duration precludes the need for a critical fire
weather area.
...Dry Thunderstorms - Western Nevada into southern Idaho...
Dry thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours across much of northern Nevada and into southern Idaho. PWAT
values are expected to be in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range across
this area with a very dry sub-cloud layer. Do not expect a lot of
lightning from this activity, but expect the start efficiency to
be high considering very little if any accumulating rainfall is
expected from this convection.
..Bentley.. 07/22/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA...AND SOUTHERN OREGON...
...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move
toward the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. Ahead of this trough,
mid-level flow will strengthen across much of Oregon and Washington
and even into northern California and Nevada. Where this mid-level
flow intersects the low-level dry air mass, critical fire weather
conditions are possible. These conditions are most likely near the
junction of California, Nevada, and Oregon. Across this region,
daytime mixing is expected to increase surface winds to 20 to 30
mph. In addition, surface relative humidity is expected to drop to
the 10 to 15 percent range.
Strong winds are also expected farther north along the eastern
slopes of the Cascades and through the Columbia River Gorge, but
the marine influenced air mass should keep relative humidity high
enough to mitigate the fire weather threat in these areas.
Thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Great Basin, Pacific
Northwest, and northern Rockies, however, forecast PWAT values and
questions about storm coverage are a bit too high to warrant a dry
thunderstorm delineation at this time.
..Bentley.. 07/22/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist ought to have his head examined.
-- Samuel Goldwyn
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