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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.08.19 07:13z 343 Lines 18081 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 30015_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 16 08
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190816/0701Z 30015@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
https://slacko.home.blog
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WW 587 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 160500Z - 161200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 587 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Fri
Aug 16 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western
and central Missouri
* Effective this Friday morning from Midnight until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms will spread southeastward
across eastern Kansas and western into central Missouri overnight.
The environment will support the possibility of additional
supercells/bowing segments capable of large hail and isolated
damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of
Leavenworth KS to 30 miles west southwest of Springfield MO. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 584...WW 585...WW 586...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion
vector 30035.
...Guyer
WW 586 SEVERE TSTM NE WY 160440Z - 161100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 586 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM MDT Thu
Aug 15 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Nebraska
Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1040 PM
until 500 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to develop and intensify
through the overnight hours as a seasonally strong mid-level
disturbance approaches the region. The environment will support
southeastward-moving supercells and well-organized clusters capable
of large hail and locally damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Douglas
WY to 40 miles east of Alliance NE. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 584...WW 585...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Guyer
WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..08/16/19
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-005-011-021-031-037-045-059-061-073-085-087-091-099-
103-107-111-121-133-139-149-161-177-197-205-207-209-160640-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON
CHEROKEE COFFEY CRAWFORD DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN GEARY GREENWOOD JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH
LINN LYON MIAMI NEOSHO
OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE
MOC011-013-015-021-029-033-037-039-047-049-053-057-059-077-083-
085-095-097-101-105-107-109-131-141-159-165-167-169-177-185-195-
217-225-160640-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES BENTON
WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..08/16/19
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-045-069-123-157-161-165-160640-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE DAWES GARDEN
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX
WYC009-015-027-031-160640-
WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONVERSE GOSHEN NIOBRARA PLATTE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HUT TO
10 ENE SLN TO 25 SE BIE.
..GOSS..08/16/19
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 585
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-017-027-031-041-045-059-061-111-113-115-117-127-131-139-
149-161-177-197-160540-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON CHASE CLAY COFFEY
DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY
LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE
RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..08/16/19
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-013-085-087-091-103-107-121-209-160540-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI
WYANDOTTE
MOC003-013-021-025-037-047-049-063-087-095-107-165-177-160540-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW BATES BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB
HOLT JACKSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE RAY
NEC147-160540-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High
Plains, across Kansas and Missouri and into southern Illinois Friday
with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other isolated
strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind may occur
over the central High Plains region.
...Synopsis...
A series of shortwave troughs will move through the Plains within
a broad fetch of modest westerlies. At the surface a convectively
reinforced warm front extends from a weak surface low in central KS
through southwestern MO. A stationary front extends southwest from
the low into southwestern KS and southeast CO. The warm front should
move northeast during the afternoon, with the effective front likely
extending from north-central MO west southwest through central and
southwestern KS.
...Central Plains through the middle Mississippi Valley region...
By the start of the period, a convectively reinforced front should
extend from southern MO northwest to a weak surface low in central
KS, with a stationary front extending from the low through southwest
KS. Thunderstorms should still be in progress from far eastern KS
into central and southern MO, but are expected to gradually diminish
as the nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet weakens. The reinforced
front should begin to move northeast as a warm front and become
situated across northeast KS into northern MO by early evening with
trailing stationary front remaining across central through southwest
KS. The warm sector south of these boundaries will be very moist,
with low 70s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates associated with
a warm EML supporting 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shortwave trough now
moving through WY will continue through NE north of the warm sector.
A capping inversion, associated with the warm EML, and only weak
forcing, suggests surface-based thunderstorm initiation should
remain limited during the day, except possibly near the convergence
boundary over south-central or southwest KS where deeper mixing is
possible. Isolated downburst winds and hail will be possible with
this activity. Assuming morning storms diminish as anticipated,
more substantial severe threat is expected to evolve from a portion
of eastern KS into MO when storms should redevelop mainly along
and north of the warm front within zone of increasing isentropic
ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. This region
will reside within belt of moderate westerlies supporting 40-45 kt
effective bulk shear. Low-level hodographs will also be augmented in
vicinity of the boundary. All severe threats are possible including
supercells with very large hail and possibly a couple tornadoes,
with primary threat eventually transitioning to damaging wind as
storms grow upscale later in the evening.
...Central High Plains region...
An easterly upslope component will persist over the central High
Plains where moderate instability and 40-45 kt effective shear will
reside during the afternoon. While forcing aloft will remain weak,
at least isolated storms are expected to develop over the higher
terrain and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability. A
few supercells and bowing with large hail and downburst winds will
be the main threats. Additional storms may develop over northern
KS within zone of isentropic ascent north of the stationary front
overnight with a threat for mainly isolated hail.
...Northeast States...
A progressive shortwave trough will interact with a modest
thermodynamic environment during the afternoon, contributing to a
few thunderstorms developing along a convergent trough axis. A few
of these storms could produce isolated strong wind gusts before
diminishing during the evening.
..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/16/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely over parts of the northern
and central Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A few strong
storms are also possible from the Lower Great Lakes into western
New England.
...Synopsis... An upper trough and attendant cold front will move
from MT across the Dakotas during the day on Saturday, providing
lift and increased deep-layer shear. Southerly low-level winds ahead
of this front will support low 60s F dewpoints into this region,
fueling scattered storms.
To the south and east, a belt of moderate mid and high-level
westerlies will remain over the central Plains, extending
cyclonically eastward into New England. Cool midlevel temperatures
will exist throughout this zone, supporting steep lapse rates aloft
especially over the Plains where strong instability will develop
due to 60s and 70s F dewpoints. A belt of 30-40 kt southwest 850 mb
winds will maintain a feed of greater theta-e across the MO Valley,
supporting bouts of severe storms.
Elsewhere, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the
Lower Great Lakes and New England strengthening deep-layer wind
fields and aiding lift via cooling aloft and increased low-level
warm advection out of the southwest.
...Dakotas and northern NE into IA and IL... Substantial height
falls will occur over the Dakotas during the day with increasing
deep-layer shear. Storms will form relatively early along the cold
front over the western Dakotas, and will increase in intensity as
they encounter a destabilizing air mass to the east. Damaging winds
and hail will be possible. Models suggest storms will make it into
western MN by late evening, but likely weaker.
...KS into MO... Storms are forecast to be ongoing from eastern KS
into MO Saturday morning, possibly in the form of an MCS on the nose
of the low-level jet. Damaging winds will be possible initially,
but a weakening trend is expected after about 18Z.
Behind this initial activity, strong heating of a moist air mass,
beneath cool temperatures aloft will lead to strong to perhaps
extreme instability, with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500-4000 J/kg
over parts of KS, northwest MO, and into NE. There is spread between
the models regarding where afternoon and evening convection will
initiate, and this may depend on modifying outflow boundaries. At
this time, the greatest probability of initiation appears to be
across the KS/MO/NE/IA quad-state area. Supercells will be possible
initially, with all modes of severe. An MCS is likely to evolve
out of this activity by evening as it continues east toward IL.
While significant severe is possible given the parameter space,
will defer potential "sig" severe delineation to later outlooks
when predictability is greater.
...Northeast OH across NY and into western New England...
Southwesterly low-level winds and heating will lead to around
1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with around 35-40 kt of effective shear. Storms
are expected to form near the lake breezes from northern OH into
western NY, with damaging winds or marginal hail possible. While
low-level shear will not be strong, effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2
may support a brief supercell.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Jewell.. 08/16/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will continue across much
of the northern half of the CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs
moving across the country. One of these shortwave troughs will move
over the central Rockies and central Plains with a mid-level jet of
40-50 knots extending west-east from northern Utah into southeast
Wyoming and northeast Colorado.
Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of
15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) are likely to develop across
eastern Utah, western/northern Colorado, and southern Wyoming
this afternoon/evening. Locally critical conditions are likely to
develop with the Upper Colorado River Valley, especially the Grand
Valley, favored for these conditions to develop. Locally elevated
conditions may develop across portions of the I-25 corridor as well
where westerly downslope flow overtakes easterly upslope flow.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) with enough mid-level
moisture (precipitable water of 0.5-0.6 inches) should result in
isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of northwest Colorado and
southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. Daytime heating will help
drive thermal-terrain circulations to create a mature Cu field
tomorrow and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level
shortwave/jet should help isolated dry thunderstorms develop. Given
the forecast dry/windy surface conditions, widespread wetting rains
are unlikely.
..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over
the northern Rockies and northern Plains tomorrow with zonal
upper-level flow prevailing across much of the CONUS. The dry
slot of this shortwave trough will move over portions of the
Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from
southern Idaho into northern Utah, southern Wyoming, and northern
Colorado. With daytime heating, this stronger flow should mix to the
surface and overlap a dry airmass resulting in elevated conditions
(westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%)
across this area. Locally critical conditions are possible with
portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divide Basin/vicinity
favored. However, there is enough uncertainty at this time to
preclude introducing a critical area.
..Nauslar.. 08/16/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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