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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.08.19 22:31z 257 Lines 13721 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 30048_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 17 08
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<LU9DCE
Sent: 190817/0700Z 30048@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
https://slacko.home.blog
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WW 589 SEVERE TSTM KS MO NE 170440Z - 171200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Fri
Aug 16 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Kansas Western and
north-central Missouri Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1140 PM
until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with
isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or
two possible
SUMMARY...Initially isolated severe thunderstorms will continue to
develop early in the overnight, particularly across the northern
half or two-thirds of Kansas. Storms will gradually spread into
western/north-central Missouri overnight and possibly southeast
Nebraska as well. Large hail will the most common risk. Some
potential also exists for damaging winds, particularly if storms
merge and grow into a linear complex, which is most likely to occur
across eastern Kansas into Missouri.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west southwest
of Hill City KS to 50 miles east southeast of Chillicothe MO. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion
vector 27025.
...Guyer
WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 589
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N DDC TO
50 W HLC TO 35 ESE MCK.
..MARSH..08/17/19
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT...DDC...GLD...GID...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 589
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-005-009-013-017-027-029-031-041-043-045-051-053-059-061-
063-065-085-087-089-091-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-127-
131-135-139-141-143-147-149-157-159-161-163-165-167-169-177-179-
183-195-197-201-209-170740-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ATCHISON BARTON BROWN
CHASE CLAY CLOUD COFFEY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY GOVE
GRAHAM JACKSON JEFFERSON JEWELL
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN LINN LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MIAMI
MITCHELL MORRIS NEMAHA NESS OSAGE
OSBORNE OTTAWA PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE
REPUBLIC RICE RILEY ROOKS RUSH
RUSSELL SALINE SHAWNEE SHERIDAN
SMITH TREGO WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW LIC TO
25 SE AKO TO 20 WSW IML.
..GOSS..08/17/19
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-073-115-125-170440-
CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN SEDGWICK
YUMA
KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-170440-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS
SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA
NEC057-170440-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected over parts of the northern
and central Plains into thee upper Midwest later this afternoon
into tonight. A few strong storms are also possible from the Ohio
Valley into western New England.
...Synopsis...
...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley region...
Upper trough over western Canada will undergo significant
amplification as it advances eastward today. A cold front will
accompany this feature through the northern Plains. By 12Z the
front will extend from eastern ND southwest into western SD. By
early evening the front should stretch from northwest MN into
southwestern SD. This region will reside along the northern fringe
of the steeper mid-level lapse rates. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints
will reside in warm sector, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE
to 2000-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent accompanying the amplifying
upper trough will overtake the frontal zone and storms should
develop and intensify along the southeast- advancing cold front
during the afternoon from eastern ND into central and southwest SD.
Strengthening winds aloft will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear
in frontal zone and some supercell structures appear likely across
SD with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, through a
couple of tornadoes will also be possible. Storms may evolve into
line segments as they develop eastward toward the MS valley with
a continued severe threat into the evening.
...Middle Mississippi Valley region...
Widespread storms developing tonight will reinforce the front across
KS and northern MO. This activity may be ongoing across KS and MO
at the start of this period, but should decrease in coverage as it
shifts east toward the OH Valley. This reinforced front may develop
north during the day, but considerable uncertainty remains where
this boundary will reside by 00Z. The warm sector south of and
in vicinity of this boundary will become strongly unstable with
2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Timing and placement of redevelopment of
storms along this boundary is uncertain, but current thinking is
that the atmosphere will probably remain capped to surface-based
storms until evening when the low-level jet will augment isentropic
ascent along and north of this feature. Storms should redevelop
anywhere from northeast KS, eastern NE into IA where the environment
will support supercells capable of mainly large hail, but a few
tornadoes will also be possible if development occurs before the
boundary layer decouples. Activity may grow upscale into an MCS
and continue eastward into northern IL overnight with a continued
threat for mainly damaging wind.
...Central Plains...
Deep mixing in vicinity of trough/dryline feature will once again
support high-based storms from the TX Panhandle into western OK
and southern KS with primary threat being isolated damaging wind
and hail.
Other storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain or
along a dryline from eastern CO into southeast WY and spread east
into the corridor of moderate instability during the afternoon and
evening. Isolated damaging wind and large hail will be possible
with this activity.
...Ohio Valley region...
An MCV from ongoing storms over the Middle MS Valley will continue
into the OH Valley during the day where moderate instability and
30-35 kt deep layer flow will reside. Storms may intensify during
and afternoon and become capable of producing isolated damaging
wind gusts.
..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/17/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252
AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds are possible
over much of Missouri and into eastern Kansas on Sunday. Isolated
severe storms are otherwise possible from northeast Oklahoma to
Lake Ontario, north of the Ohio River.
...Synopsis... An upper trough will be situated over the Upper MS
Valley Sunday morning, and will eject rapidly northeast across the
Great Lakes with a cold front moving east across WI and MI during
the day. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend roughly from the
MN/WI border across southeast NE and into central KS with an axis
of 70s F dewpoints from IA to the Gulf Coast. Mid to upper 60s
F dewpoints will also extend eastward across the OH Valley with
warm advection aided by 30 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds. Heating
generally south of I-70 and a moist air mass will lead to areas of
strong instability, most notably across KS, MO, and OK.
...MO...eastern KS...northeast OK...northwest AR... Outflow from
early day storms over IA, northern MO and IL will likely spread
south across central MO during the day, with 70s F dewpoints and
heating resulting in very strong instability. Forecast soundings show
MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, averaging across several models. A
southward-moving MCS is possible along the old outflow, along
with an embedded supercell or two with effective SRH of 100-150
m2/s2. Damaging winds are most likely, but hail is possible with
the more discrete storms.
...OH Valley northward to the Great Lakes... Storms are forecast to
be ongoing across parts of IA, IL and WI related to warm advection
with a southwesterly low-level jet. Some of this activity could
produce strong wind gusts, but is expected to weaken during the
day. Instability will develop northward ahead of the cold front
over WI, but boundary-layer temperatures are forecast to remain
relatively cool, with much of the instability elevated. Stronger
destabilization will occur across IL, IN, and OH, with MUCAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg. Although deep-layer shear will generally be
less than 35 kt, marginal hail is possible given cool temperatures
aloft. Localized severe wind gusts will be possible as far east as
western NY and PA.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Jewell.. 08/17/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the
northern Rockies and northern Plains with zonal upper-level flow
across much of the CONUS. The dry slot will move over portions of
the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching
from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. With
daytime heating, stronger winds will likely mix to the surface
resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions from the Snake
River Plain through the Great Divide Basin and across portions
of western/northern Colorado. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH
values of 10-20% are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across
the area. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible
in northern Arizona where multiple large fires are active, which
produced smoke plumes seen on visible satellite imagery on Friday.
Isolated dry thunderstorms are likely to develop across northwest
Colorado, far northeast Utah, and far southern Wyoming this
afternoon/evening. High LCLs (around 3 km), a dry sub-cloud layer,
and storm motions of 30-35 knots will limit wetting rains and
increase chances for lightning ignitions. There is some concern
that the Cu field will not become vertically developed enough
for thunderstorms due to the limited amount of moisture (forecast
precipitable water values of 0.4-0.55") and instability present.
Isolated dry thunderstorms may also be possible across the Caprock
and Texas Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. While wetting
rains are likely, lightning ignitions on the periphery of storms
have occurred recently per LUB. Given the high LCLs and forecast
DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg, strong outflow winds are also possible.
..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging begins to amplify across the
western CONUS behind a shortwave trough moving over the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes tomorrow. Mid-level westerly flow of 25-50 knots
will likely remain from southern Idaho into the central/northern
High Plains. Once again, daytime heating will deepen the boundary
layer and allow stronger winds to mix to the surface resulting
in elevated to locally critical conditions (westerly sustained
surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%). This will be the
fourth consecutive day for dry/windy conditions across the area and
ERCs are now mostly between the 70th and 90th percentile. Hot/dry
conditions will continue across much of the Intermountain West.
..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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