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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.08.19 07:13z 383 Lines 19870 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 18 08
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Sent: 190818/0701Z 30090@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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WW 595 SEVERE TSTM IA MN 180315Z - 181000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 PM CDT Sat
Aug 17 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern
Minnesota
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1015 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with
isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail
and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized line of storms will continue to accelerate
generally eastward across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa
during the late evening and overnight hours. Damaging winds can be
expected along with some hail and possibly a brief tornado risk.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest
of Mankato MN to 20 miles south southeast of Fort Dodge IA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 592...WW 593...WW 594...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Guyer
WW 594 SEVERE TSTM KS 180125Z - 180800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 PM CDT Sat
Aug 17 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Kansas
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 825 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated
significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and
isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A small but well-organized cluster of storms across
northwest Kansas early this evening will continue east-southeastward
with additional storms expected to develop near/ahead of it through
late evening. Large hail and locally damaging winds can initially
be expected with this activity, with a more certain potential for
damaging winds given the possibility of an expanding/organizing
linear cluster across central Kansas.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
55 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south
southwest of Hill City KS to 35 miles south southeast of Manhattan
KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...WW 592...WW 593...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Guyer
WW 593 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 172315Z - 180600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 593 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CDT Sat
Aug 17 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest
Minnesota Northeast Nebraska Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 615 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with
isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail
and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Ongoing storms across south-central/northeast South Dakota
early this evening will continue eastward, with the possibility
of additional/more isolated supercell development ahead of an
evolving cluster of storms. Some tornado risk may exist for a time,
particularly through mid-evening across southeast South Dakota.
However, the overall most common risks should be large hail and
damaging winds, which should become more of a concern later this
evening as storm mergers occur and a more organized cluster/line
develops.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
130 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
northeast of Worthington MN to 45 miles west southwest of Huron SD.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...WW 591...WW 592...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Guyer
WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW RWF TO
35 NNW MKT TO 30 SSE MSP.
..GLEASON..08/18/19
ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-025-033-041-059-063-069-079-081-083-091-109-147-151-161-
187-189-195-197-180540-
IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CERRO GORDO
CLAY DICKINSON EMMET FRANKLIN
HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS SAC WEBSTER
WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT
MNC013-015-043-047-079-091-103-131-143-147-161-165-180540-
MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH BROWN FARIBAULT FREEBORN
LE SUEUR MARTIN NICOLLET RICE
SIBLEY STEELE WASECA WATONWAN
WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HLC TO
25 ENE RSL TO 10 ESE SLN TO 40 SE SLN TO 15 NW EMP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783.
..MARSH..08/18/19
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-009-015-017-019-031-035-049-051-053-073-079-095-111-113-
115-135-145-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-191-195-180740-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BARTON BUTLER CHASE
CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY ELK
ELLIS ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY KINGMAN
LYON MCPHERSON MARION NESS
PAWNEE RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL
SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER
TREGO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ONL TO
20 NE YKN TO 35 SE FSD TO 35 SSW OTG TO 20 S OTG TO 10 ESE OTG TO
30 NNE OTG TO 30 WNW RWF TO 35 ENE RWF.
..GLEASON..08/18/19
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...MPX...FGF...OAX...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC035-093-141-143-149-167-193-180540-
IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE IDA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA
PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY
MNC033-063-127-129-180540-
MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON REDWOOD RENVILLE
NEC003-027-043-051-107-139-179-180540-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE ITR TO
20 ESE ITR TO 50 W HLC TO 45 S HLC.
WW 592 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180400Z.
..GLEASON..08/18/19
ATTN...WFO...GLD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC063-109-179-181-193-199-180400-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOVE LOGAN SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...595... FOR
KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019
Areas affected...Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...southwest
Missouri...and extreme northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594...595...
Valid 180642Z - 180815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594,
595 continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue across much of Kansas this morning.
The leading edge of the thunderstorms continues to push toward
northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. Gusty thunderstorm winds
and hail will be the primary severe threat with these storms. A
new watch is being considered for portions of northeast Oklahoma
and southwest Missouri.
DISCUSSION...Another round of thunderstorms is ongoing across
much of Kansas this morning. The convection has organized
itself into another "bow and arrow" mesoscale convective system
(MCS). The leading edge of this MCS (the bow) is quickly moving
southeast toward far southeast Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, and
southwest Missouri. The environment along and ahead of this bow
is characterized by deep-layer shear on the order of 40 knots and
most-unstable CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg. Additionally,
mixed-layer convective inhibition actually weakens the farther east
this MCS moves. Thus a continuation of severe potential in areas
outside of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #594 is possible. As such,
a new watch is being considered.
Upstream from the bow, the "arrow" thunderstorms across central
Kansas will continue within a moderately unstable and sufficiently
sheared airmass to continue the potential for hail and gusty winds
for at least another few hours. Therefore an extension in time of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #584 may be needed.
..Marsh.. 08/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37339724 38569607 37429348 36099474 37339724
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER
MI...NORTHEAST IN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OH...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of severe gusts and
large hail are possible over Lower Michigan, northeast Indiana,
and far northwest Ohio this afternoon into the early evening.
...Middle MS Valley through OH Valley and Upper Great Lakes...
Well-organized MCS currently moving through southern MN and
northern IA will likely be in the vicinity of the IA/IL border at
the beginning of the period. The resulting convectively induced
vorticity maximum and attendant isolated showers and thunderstorms
are expected to gradually move eastward this morning. A very moist
and diurnally destabilized air mass is expected downstream across
Lower MI and the OH Valley. As a result, thunderstorms associated
with this vorticity maximum are expected to reintensify as they
move into Lower MI and the middle OH Valley this afternoon.
The anticipated trajectory of vorticity maximum currently takes
it over Lower MI during the afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow
will accompany this vorticity maximum, resulting in strong enough
vertical shear to support more organized storm structures capable
of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Highest concentration of
severe storms is currently expected to be across southern portions
of Lower MI and adjacent northeast IN and northwest OH.
Another round of thunderstorms is possible over the region as the
cold front moves through this evening, but development of these
storms is largely dependent on the strength of the antecedent storms
and air mass recovery in their wake.
...Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast... Low-amplitude shortwave
trough currently moving through the middle OH Valley will continue
eastward/northeastward, reaching the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast
region by the early afternoon. Despite relatively modest lapse rates,
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s (isolated low 70s possible) and
surface temperatures in the mid 80s will still support moderate
buoyancy capable of occasionally strong updrafts. Vertical shear
will be modest and a predominantly linear multicell mode is
anticipated. Water-loaded downbursts are possible with strongest
storms.
...Ozark Plateau into OK... A very warm and moist low-level air mass
will remain in place across the region with afternoon dewpoints in
the 70s and temperatures in the upper 90s/low 100s. Steep mid-level
lapse rates atop this warm and moist air mass will result in very
strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg) but also modest
convective inhibition. Impetus for overcoming this convective
inhibition and initiating deep updrafts is expected to be the cold
front moving south through the region. However, location of the cold
front this afternoon is uncertain, primarily because of potential
modification of its position as a result of outflow from the ongoing
MCS across KS. There is also some chance for the MCS to remain
over northeast OK and the Ozark Plateau long enough to prevent air
mass recovery. These uncertainties merit keeping Marginal severe
probabilities for this forecast, but an upgrade may be needed in
a subsequent outlook as these mesoscale details become more certain.
..Mosier/Nauslar.. 08/18/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200
AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of
the northern Plains Monday evening and overnight.
...Synopsis... A negative-tilt shortwave trough will quickly
eject northeast across Quebec, resulting in rising heights over the
Great Lakes during the day. A brief period of lift will occur over
northern parts of the northeastern states, where weak instability
will develop. Overnight and to the west, subtle height falls will
occur over the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, on the southern
fringe of a shortwave trough over MB. Here, a cold front will move
into the central Dakotas by 00Z, with mid 60s F dewpoints spreading
northward ahead of it aiding destabilization and supporting at
least isolated storms.
To the south, strong instability will once again develop over the
central Plains, but will be capped for most of the period.
...Northern Plains... Strong heating will occur over ND, northern
MN, and western SD along and west of the wind shift. The air mass
over the moist sector will be capped for much of the day, but a
narrow zone of uncapped air should develop along the front. Isolated
late afternoon and evening storms are possible with marginal wind
or hail. Overnight, elevated instability will develop from NE/IA
into MN, and sporadic storms cannot be ruled out from northeast KS
into IA. However, the probability of severe in those areas appears
low prior to 12Z Tuesday.
...Northern NY into ME... Low-level winds will continue to veer
during the day as the shortwave trough ejects east/northeast
over the region. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability
for thunderstorms during the day, and modest deep shear, but
midlevel subsidence will likely mitigate overall storm coverage
and intensity. As such, severe weather is not currently forecast,
but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with gusty winds and
small hail.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Jewell.. 08/18/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will amplify over the western
CONUS as an upper-level shortwave trough moves over the northern
Plains and Great Lakes. Mid-level 25-50 knot westerly flow will
remain over the northern Intermountain West with hot/dry conditions
across much of the Intermountain West.
Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20
mph, RH values of 10-20%) will develop from southern Idaho into
southern/central Wyoming and northwest Colorado/northeast Utah this
afternoon/evening. This is the fourth consecutive day of dry/windy
conditions across this area, which will continue to cure fuels with
ERCs now mostly in the 70-90th percentiles.
Locally elevated conditions (southerly winds of 10-20 mph, RH
values of 8-15%) are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across
northwest Arizona into southeast Nevada/southwest Utah. While these
conditions are relatively common for this area and time of year,
dry fuels and ongoing fire activity in the area warranted a mention.
..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen and
amplify over the western CONUS tomorrow. Much of the Intermountain
West will remain hot/dry, and large-scale flow will be relatively
weak across the region. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is
forecast to move over the northern Rockies during the day, which
could help initiate isolated dry thunderstorms across southwest
Montana/vicinity. However, with heights generally rising across
the region and forecast relatively dry (precipitable water values of
0.4-0.6") and stable conditions (ML/MUCAPE < 250 J/kg) conditions,
an area was not introduced.
..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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