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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.08.19 07:03z 163 Lines 9284 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 30120_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 19 08
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<LU9DCE
Sent: 190819/0701Z 30120@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY....AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of
the northern Plains and Middle Missouri Valley Monday evening and
overnight. Isolated severe storms are possible across the central
High Plains and New England.
...Synopsis... Overall upper pattern across the northern third
of the CONUS will continue to trend more zonal as the shortwave
trough currently moving through Ontario progresses eastward
and upper ridging centered over the southern Plains builds. An
additional shortwave trough is expected to move across Canadian
Prairie Provinces during the second half of the period, helping to
push a cold front through the much of the northern Plains by early
Tuesday morning.
Before this cold front moves through, the surface pattern will be
dominated by high pressure gradually shifting northeastward across
the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Southerly flow around this
high will allow the very moist air mass across the central Plains
to advect northward into the northern Plains.
...Northern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... Moisture advection is
anticipated across the region throughout the day, with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s (isolated low 70s) by the late afternoon/early
evening. At the same time, strong diurnal heating will lead to deep
boundary-layer mixing and temperatures into the upper 80s and 90s
across the western Dakotas. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be
negligible (with minor height rises anticipated) but with little
convective inhibition and surface convergence near a weak surface low
over western ND, thunderstorm initiation is possible. If initiation
can occur, the air mass across the western Dakotas (and downstream
across the central Dakotas) will support strong updrafts capable
of hail and strong wind gusts. Southeasterly low-level flow also
supports low-probability tornado threat.
Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-levels
also suggest an environment favorable for strong cold pools
and a resulting potential for upscale growth into an organized,
forward-propagating MCS. A strengthening low-level jet would provide
the moisture needed for MCS maintenance. Main uncertainty regarding
this scenario is the initiation of surface-based storms during
late afternoon across the western Dakotas. Guidance has shown high
run-to-run variability regarding initiation. Upgrades may be needed
in subsequent outlooks if initiation appears likely.
Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet and resulting warm-air
advection is expected to promote elevated thunderstorm development
across IA late today/early Tuesday morning. Hail is possible within
the strongest updrafts.
...Central High Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development is
possible along the lee trough extending across the region. Most
probable location for initiation is across northeast CO where a lee
low will likely exist. Given the deeply mixed boundary-layer, strong
wind gusts are possible with a few of these high-based storms. Some
isolated hail is also possible with the strongest updrafts.
...New England... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
this morning, but air mass recovery is still anticipated ahead of
an approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface trough. The
strongest shear will be confined to ME, where the potential for a
few supercells exists. Modest flow aloft will exist farther south,
but bowing line segments capable of isolated damaging wind gusts
are still expected.
..Mosier/Nauslar.. 08/19/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0125 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS
AND FAR WESTERN INDIANA WESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA...
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC SPELLING ERROR IN HEADLINE
...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds are possible over
Illinois and parts of surrounding states on Tuesday. Severe storms
with hail and wind are also expected over much of Nebraska.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move southeastward across
MB and ON, with 35-45 kt midlevel winds across the Upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes. Heights will gradually lower from the
mid MO Valley across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic
by Wed morning. Cool temperatures aloft with -10 C at 500 mb will
spread southeastward across MO and IL atop a moist and unstable air
mass. Strong instability will also extend westward over much of the
central Plains, with an east-west front along the KS/NE border and
low pressure developing along the CO/KS border. This boundary will
provide a focus for storms during the evening as the low-level jet
develops and aids lift.
...IA/MO/IL/IN... Models indicate that an MCS will develop
early in the morning over IA in a zone of warm advection with 40
kt west/southwest 850 mb winds, and will continue southeastward
over IL and MO during the day. While much of this event may occur
prior to peak heating, a very moist air mass and a few hours of
heating will lead to 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE. Winds aloft will not
be particularly strong this far south of the upper trough, but
sufficient to aid forward propagation of an MCS. Damaging winds will
be the primary concern. Western portions of this MCS will likely
affect eastern MO, and may persist as far south as northeast AR. A
higher probability threat corridor may need to be added in later
outlooks once the MCS timing and position are better known.
...Eastern WY and northeast CO into NE... Strong heating will occur
over WY, CO, and much of KS, but will be tempered along and north of
the front into NE. Increasing easterly surface winds in the vicinity
of the front will maintain 60s to 70s F dewpoints over NE, with near
60 F into northeast CO. Storms are expected to initiate within the
well heated air mass of eastern CO and WY during the late afternoon,
with increasing coverage north of the front in NE overnight. Damaging
winds and hail will be the primary concerns. Deep-layer shear over
NE may be sufficient for elevated supercells capable of very large
hail given the large instability. An MCS could also develop into
Wednesday morning over eastern NE into northwest MO.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% SIG - Slight Hail: 15% SIG - Slight
..Jewell.. 08/19/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen
and amplify over the western CONUS today. Much of the Intermountain
West will remain hot/dry, and large-scale flow will be relatively
weak across the much of the region. However, some residual stronger
mid-level flow will remain over the northern Rockies/vicinity,
and a weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the
northern Rockies as well.
An elevated area was added across portions of southern and central
Wyoming. West-southwest sustained surface winds of 12-20 mph
with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH values of 8-15% are expected this
afternoon and into the evening across the area. Additionally, very
deep (10,000+ ft), dry, and unstable boundary layers will develop.
This will be the fifth consecutive day of dry/breezy conditions
with ERCs rising across portions of southern/western/central Wyoming
(70-90th percentiles).
..Nauslar.. 08/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will
continue to amplify into western Canada tomorrow with an upper-level
shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Subtropical
moisture will begin to move into the Southwest as the ridge builds
and into southern Montana/northern Wyoming with easterly low-level
flow extending westward from the northern Plains. Isolated dry
thunderstorms may develop across southern Montana and northern
Wyoming. However, fuel conditions and uncertainty regarding
thunderstorm coverage preclude introducing an isolated dry
thunderstorm area at this time.
..Nauslar.. 08/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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