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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.11.19 17:22z 111 Lines 5984 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 884_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 18 11
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 191118/1715Z @:LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM #:884 LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644
AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern through the period will
be rather progressive, except for a persistent, cut-off low that will
remain west of the Baja spur through the period. Shortwave troughs
moving over the upper Mississippi Valley, upper Great Lakes and
off the southern Atlantic Coast will cross over a low-level air
mass too dry and stable for thunderstorms, behind a large cyclone
located over the western Atlantic. A strong shortwave trough --
initially evident in moisture-channel imagery well west of WA/OR
near 137W -- is expected to move onshore of the coastal Pacific
Northwest around 06Z.
...Pacific Northwest... A few thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the coastal Northwest and Cascades area -- mainly after
00Z. As the Pacific shortwave trough approaches, related large-scale
lift/DCVA and cooling aloft will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates
-- initially over the marine layer near the coast, then inland over
the Cascades, atop generally weaker theta-e with eastward extent.
Time series of forecast soundings suggest substantial destabilization
immediately preceding the trough in the 400-600-mb layer, which
also corresponds to thermal profiles colder than -20 C and suitable
for lightning generation once buoyancy can extend into that profile.
Even with max lapse rates, MUCAPE should remain under about 250 J/kg,
and lightning flashes should be isolated.
..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/18/2019
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955
AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected.
Water vapor imagery shows a strong and progressive shortwave trough
about 400nm off the coast of WA/OR. This feature will approach
the Pacific Northwest coast later today, with the potential for
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms - mainly after dark.
Weak instability should minimize the risk of severe storms.
Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
over the remainder of the CONUS.
..Hart/Broyles.. 11/18/2019
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035
AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected over much
of Arizona and New Mexico from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
night. A few storms could produce small hail.
...Southern AZ... A mid-level low west of Baja CA Tuesday
morning will weaken as it is shunted to the east-northeast into
northwestern Mexico as a mid-level trough over northern CA/OR moves
south-southeast into central/southern CA. Increasing midlevel
moisture will support a threat of thunderstorms beginning over
the lower CO River Valley and much of AZ Tuesday afternoon, and
spreading into southern UT and much of central and western NM by
Wednesday morning. Recent suite of operational models show weak
instability developing as the wind profile strengthens during the
late afternoon/late evening period over southern AZ. A few stronger
storms are possible but would likely be confined to southeast AZ
where the greatest combination of shear/instability are forecast.
Will defer a potential low-severe highlight for the time being but
later outlooks will reevaluate this possible scenario.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Smith.. 11/18/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
The forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made.
Please see the previous forecast below for more details.
..Squitieri.. 11/18/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/
...Synopsis... A progressive, amplified pattern will continue
across the Lower 48 today. Across the west, a shortwave trough will
migrate eastward and induce surface cyclogenesis across the western
Great Basin. This surface low will gradually weaken the offshore
pressure gradient across California and vicinity. Farther east,
windy and dry conditions will develop across portions of Nebraska
and Kansas during the afternoon, though fuels in these areas do
not appear to support a fire threat on a widespread basis.
...Southern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are expected in the morning, although aforementioned
synoptic conditions will contribute to a weakening of the surface
pressure gradient and calmer surface winds by midday. Surface RH
values will remain fairly low however, and fall into the 3-10%
range during the afternoon especially away from coastal areas.
Fuels continue to remain dry and support fire spread. For these
reasons, an elevated fire delineation remains in place.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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