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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.11.19 09:22z 173 Lines 9565 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1127_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 19 11
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 191119/0910Z 1127@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of southern
Arizona late this afternoon and evening, perhaps accompanied by at
least some risk for severe hail and wind.
...Synopsis... Within the mid-latitude westerlies across the
eastern Pacific, models suggest that amplifying ridging will build
northeastward through British Columbia, the Yukon and portions of
the Northwest Territories, taking on more of a positive tilt during
this period. As it does, the southern portion of a splitting
downstream short wave trough, and a trailing perturbation, are
forecast to dig near and west of the Sierra Nevada, and eventually
contribute to the evolution of a deepening mid-level low near the
southern California coast by 12Z Wednesday.
In response to these developments, an initially cut-off mid-level
closed low, currently still west of Baja, likely will be forced
northeastward. A slow northeastward acceleration toward northern
Baja may be underway by 12Z this morning. As it progresses more
rapidly northeastward, it appears that the low will transition to
an open wave and perhaps undergo considerable further deformation
while overspreading southern Arizona and Sonora late this evening
into the overnight hours.
Farther downstream, beneath building larger-scale ridging across the
southern and central Plains into the lower and middle Mississippi
Valley, a southerly return flow may gradually commence across the
lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the southern Plains, in
the wake of large-scale troughing beginning to shift east of the
Atlantic Seaboard.
While convective potential is expected to remain negligible
across most areas east of the Rockies, an influx of moisture
from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, and through the Gulf of
California, probably will contribute to destabilization supportive
of scattered thunderstorm activity across the Southwest. This may
include portions of the Colorado Plateau and southern Rockies into
southwest Texas, in addition to much of central and southern Arizona.
...Central and southern Arizona... On the leading edge of the
moisture return, increasing forcing for ascent, perhaps aided by a
mid-level perturbation pivoting around the approaching closed low,
may support considerable convection and embedded thunderstorms
across parts of northern Sonora into southern Arizona by 18-21Z.
This activity is expected to be generally weak with negligible
severe risk, and may tend to diminish while spreading toward the
Mogollon Rim.
In its wake, boundary layer moistening and breaks in overcast may
allow for the development of weak to moderate CAPE across Sonora
into at least the southern Arizona border vicinity. This may
become sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorm development,
particularly near the leading edge of the northeastward advancing
mid-level dry slot, where steepening mid-level lapse rates may
coincide with sufficient strengthening of deep-layer shear to
support isolated supercells. While strongest cells may initiate
across Sonora, activity may spread across the international border
into Arizona with at least some continuing risk for severe hail and
locally strong surface gusts, mainly during the 20/00-03Z time frame.
..Kerr/Cook.. 11/19/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218
AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce marginally severe hail over
parts of west Texas Wednesday.
...Synopsis... An upper low will move east out of southern CA and
into western AZ on Wednesday with a cyclonically curved midlevel
speed max sweeping across AZ and NM. Lift with this system will
result in widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the period,
with minimal severe threat.
To the east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move from
southwest TX into the central Plains during the day, and toward the
upper MS Valley by Thursday morning. A surface low will develop over
KS and move northeastward toward IA, with a dryline moving out of
NM and into west TX early in the day. Mid 50s F dewpoints will be
common over the southern Plains due to strong south winds. Despite
this, the boundary layer is expected to remain relatively cool and
stable, with only elevated thunderstorms likely.
...TX South Plains and Panhandle... Storms will develop early
in the day over NM and will move into west TX by 18Z. Forecast
soundings indicate around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the dryline,
but boundary-layer temperatures will remain cool. Therefore,
despite strong low-level shear, this part of the hodograph will be
rendered ineffective. However, strong shear in the cloud-bearing
layer will support elevated cells capable of hail. Storms will
spread rapidly northeast into the central Plains later in the day,
but weaker instability is unlikely to support severe hail.
...Central AZ... Areas of showers and thunderstorms
are expected throughout the day which will likely minimize
instability. Large-scale ascent as well as southerly upslope flow
along the Mogollon Rim will aid storm development, beneath cooling
temperatures aloft. If pockets of greater instability can develop,
then isolated marginal hail will be possible. However, this is
uncertain given the likelihood of clouds and airmass contamination.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Jewell.. 11/19/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A vigorous mid-level system will accelerate
south-southeastward along the California coast and carve out a
longwave trough along the West Coast. This will assist in forcing
an initially cutoff low to open and eject northeastward toward
southern Arizona/New Mexico through the end of the forecast period.
Additionally, surface cyclogenesis will occur across the western
Great Basin through the evening, while another lee surface low
materializes across the central High Plains through early Wednesday
morning.
Generally, though breezy conditions across the Great Basin will
lead to locally elevated fire weather, these conditions should be
localized and brief enough to preclude fire weather highlights,
especially with clouds and showers related to an upstream system
limiting boundary-layer mixing. Localized elevated conditions may
also exist for a couple hours along the immediate Colorado Front
Range as well.
..Cook.. 11/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... A vigorous mid-level disturbance across the Southwest
will evolve into a cutoff low, with very strong mid-level flow aloft
across California on the west side of the cyclone. A surface low
will also migrate slowly through the day beneath this mid-level low.
A surface high will slide southward across the northern Rockies
as well, setting up a favorable pressure gradient for strong
northerly flow across portions of northern and central California.
Farther east, cyclogenesis across the central Plains will result in
a downslope wind event across eastern Colorado/New Mexico, although
RH values should remain high enough in these areas to preclude any
heightened fire weather risk.
...Northern and central California... The aforementioned
synoptic surface pattern will result in increased northerly
surface flow beginning very early in the forecast period and
persisting throughout. 15-35 mph wind speeds, with higher gusts
in terrain-favored areas, will become common especially across
the central Valley and other terrain-favored areas of the region.
Meanwhile, RH values will fall to around 15% during peak heating
periods - locally lower. With dry fuels in place across the
region, elevated and critical highlights have been introduced for
this outlook. Elevated to locally critical conditions (15-25 mph
northerly winds, 20-30% RH) are expected to occur as far west as
coastal areas and as far south as San Joaquin County and vicinity
during the afternoon and early evening.
..Cook.. 11/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Harrisberger's Fourth Law of the Lab:
Experience is directly proportional to the amount of equipment
ruined.
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