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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.11.19 07:01z 111 Lines 5779 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 21 11
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145
PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe
wind gusts and hail will be possible across parts of north Texas
and southern Oklahoma this afternoon and early this evening.
...Southern Plains... Southwest mid-level flow will be in
place across the southern Plains today as a shortwave ridge moves
northeastward across the central Plains and Arklatex. At the surface,
a cold front will advance quickly southeastward across west Texas
and Oklahoma today reaching northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma
this afternoon. Increasing low-level convergence and warming surface
temperatures should be enough for thunderstorm development near
the front in the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid 60s F resulting in MLCAPE
values reaching the 500 to 800 J/kg range late this afternoon. This
combined with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 50 kt range should be enough
for a marginal severe threat with a few strong wind gusts and hail
possible. The marginal risk area for this outlook is maintained
and spatially adjusted northwestward to line up with the projected
position of the front during the mid afternoon.
..Broyles/Dean.. 11/21/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228
AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains
into the lower Mississippi Valley Friday. A low probability of
locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will exist
from southeast Texas into Louisiana during the day.
...Southeast Texas into Louisiana...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front as well as
in pre-frontal confluent zone within a moist (70F dewpoints) but
marginally unstable boundary layer. This activity will be embedded
within strong vertical shear associated with a progressive synoptic
southern-stream trough. Storms developing in pre-frontal confluent
zone should be surface based or only slightly elevated, and might
become capable of producing a couple of locally strong wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado during the day. It still appears a weak
thermodynamic environment will remain a limiting factor for a more
robust severe event.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Dial.. 11/21/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The upper low over the Southwest that has brought
precipitation to portions of southern CA is expected to weaken
and move eastward today, as a shortwave ridge builds into the
Northwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may be ongoing
across terrain-favored areas of northern CA at the start of the
period, but a general decrease in wind speeds with time should tend
to limit the fire weather threat. Elsewhere, no substantial fire
weather threats are expected.
..Dean.. 11/21/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The upper trough over the Southwest at the start
of the period Friday morning is expected to move eastward into
the southern Plains through the day, while an upper low off of
the southern CA coast is expected to remain offshore through the
period. A weak upper ridge will remain in place over portions of
the Northwest and northern CA, which will support the development
of a surface high over the Great Basin and weak offshore flow over
portions of southern CA by Saturday morning. However, antecedent
cool/moist conditions will limit the potential for substantial RH
reductions at the onset of the offshore flow regime, and the fire
weather threat is expected to remain relatively low through the
end of the period.
..Dean.. 11/21/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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You men out there probably think you already know how to dress for success.
You know, for example, that you should not wear leisure suits or white plastic
belts and shoes, unless you are going to a costume party disguised as a pig
farmer vacationing at Disney World.
-- Dave Barry, "How to Dress for Real Success"
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