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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.11.19 07:11z 75 Lines 3854 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 23 11
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137
PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over a part of the Southeast States. Threat for severe
weather appears low at this time.
...Southeastern US...
Strong short-wave trough will eject across the MS Valley into AL
by 24/00z. In response to this feature, weak surface low should
evolve along surface front over middle TN then lift into the
upper OH Valley during the latter half of the period. Strong 12hr
mid-level height falls will spread across the TN Valley region with
substantial forcing expected to extend into the Gulf States. This
large-scale forcing should encourage scattered convection along/ahead
of a pronounced cold front that will surge across the southern
Appalachians/GA by early evening. Observational data suggests
lower 60s surface dew points that have advanced into MS will be
shunted east ahead of the wind shift, which will contribute to weak
instability for possible thunderstorm activity. However, forecast
lapse rates are quite weak and overall buoyancy should remain too
meager to support long-lived robust updrafts, despite the marked
increase in vertical shear across this region. While gusty winds
could be noted with the strongest storms across AL into GA, the
threat of severe appears too low to warrant severe probs this period.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 11/23/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251
AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the
U.S. mainland Sunday or Sunday night.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward
into the western Atlantic on Sunday as west-northwest mid-level flow
remains over much of the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will
advance away from the East Coast as a dry and cool airmass remains in
place across most of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason,
thunderstorm activity is not expected to develop across the CONUS
Sunday or Sunday night.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Broyles.. 11/23/2019
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"So she went into the garden to cut a cabbage leaf to make an apple pie;
and at the same time a great she-bear, coming up the street pops its head
into the shop. "What! no soap?" So he died, and she very imprudently married
the barber; and there were present the Picninnies, and the Grand Panjandrum
himself, with the little round button at top, and they all fell to playing
the game of catch as catch can, till the gunpowder ran out at the heels of
their boots."
-- Samuel Foote
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