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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.11.19 07:07z 126 Lines 6895 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3087_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 24 11
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VK6HGR<VK2IO<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 191124/0701Z 3087@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146
PM CST Sat Nov 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Northeast today. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Northeast... A shortwave trough initially over the Mid-Atlantic
will progress northeastward across New England today, eventually
reaching the Canadian maritime provinces by the end of the period. A
related surface low will develop northeastward across coastal New
England and adjacent Atlantic waters. Strong ascent associated with a
low-level warm advection regime east of the surface low may encourage
isolated thunderstorm development this morning through afternoon from
southern NY into mainly coastal New England. Even though strong flow
will be present above a near-surface stable layer, MUCAPE is expected
to remain below 500 J/kg due to modest mid-level lapse rates.
...Southern Florida... A cold front will continue southward across
the southern FL Peninsula today. Above the front, large-scale forcing
for ascent will remain minimal. Although shallow convection may
develop along the front this afternoon, very poor mid-level lapse
rates will likely limit the opportunity for lightning.
...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to
steepen as a shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest late
tonight. This should support weak instability and some showers. While
an occasional instance of lightning cannot be completely ruled
out along coastal WA/OR tonight, coverage is currently expected to
remain less than 10%.
..Gleason/Nauslar.. 11/24/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243
AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop in the day 2
period across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Arklatex.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will dig quickly
southeastward into the Intermountain West on Monday as west-southwest
mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. In response to the
approaching system, strong moisture advection is forecast to take
place across the Texas Coastal Plains. Weak instability is forecast
to develop along the moist axis Monday night, which combined with
warm advection may be enough for isolated thunderstorm development.
Isolated thunderstorms may also develop in parts of the Pacific
Northwest. Instability is expected to be too weak for a severe
threat in either of these two areas.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Broyles.. 11/24/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis... The cut-off low off Baja California will slide
southward today as an upper-level shortwave trough moves into the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. A strong jet will nose into
northern California and the northern Great Basin with a strong,
mostly dry cold front pushing south across California and the
Great Basin.
...northern California... Elevated/locally critical conditions
are likely to develop this evening and overnight across portions
of the Coast Ranges and western Sacramento Valley in northern
California. Winds will increase along and behind the cold front and
under the strong mid/upper-level flow with very dry air residing
above the surface inversion. As a result, northwest sustained
winds of 15-30 mph and RH values of 5-25% will develop across
portions of the Coast Ranges, mostly above 1000 feet, with some
of these windy/dry conditions mixing to the surface in the western
Sacramento Valley. Cooler surface temperatures (40-55 F) are expected
behind the cold front including above the surface inversion. While
fuel conditions have moderated due to recent precipitation and
cooler temperatures/higher RH, there remains enough potential for
ignition/spread of wildfires.
...southern California... Locally elevated conditions including
locally critical winds/RH may develop across portions of Ventura
and Los Angeles Counties today. Northerly-easterly winds of
20-40 mph and minimum RH values of 15-30% are expected, but recent
precipitation have dropped ERCs to near/below normal.
..Nauslar.. 11/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough continues to deepen
and move across much of the western CONUS on Monday. A cold front
will push southward across much of the western CONUS into southern
California and the Southwest with surface cyclogenesis developing
in the Southwest to southern Plains.
...California... Strong northerly flow will develop amid a dry
air mass across much of the Central Valley and Coast Ranges in the
Bay Area through central California resulting in elevated to locally
critical conditions. Sustained north-northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph
and RH values of 10-25% are likely across much of the Central Valley
and into the Coast Ranges of central California. Elevated conditions
may continue from the early morning, but the afternoon will see the
strongest winds/lowest RH as daytime heating will help mix stronger
winds/drier air to the surface. Fuels still remain dry across this
region as most of the recent precipitation fell farther to the south.
...southern Plains... Elevated to locally critical winds/RH
are likely to develop from eastern New Mexico into southwest
Oklahoma on Monday as surface cyclogenesis strengthens surface
winds. However, recent precipitation across the region should dampen
fire potential/activity and preclude an elevated area.
..Nauslar.. 11/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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"Well," Brahma said, "even after ten thousand explanations, a fool is no
wiser, but an intelligent man requires only two thousand five hundred."
-- The Mahabharata.
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