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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.11.19 07:40z 89 Lines 4886 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3211_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 25 11
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<I0BLC<GB7CIP<GB7BEX<GB7YEW<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 191125/0701Z @:LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM #:3211 LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148
PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States today and tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will amplify over the
western states today as a related 75-100+ kt mid-level jet develops
from the West Coast across the Southwest and southern High Plains
through the period. Strong forcing for ascent will be present ahead
of this trough across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners
region, and widespread precipitation is expected. Although mid-level
temperatures will cool by this afternoon over these areas in advance
of the upper trough, instability is forecast to remain very meager
(generally less than 100 J/kg of MUCAPE) owing to limited low-level
moisture. The probability of thunderstorms across this region today
appears to be less than 10%. Cold mid-level temperatures will also
be present beneath the upper trough across the Pacific Northwest,
but large-scale subsidence behind the passage of the upper trough
axis suggests limited potential for thunderstorms.
At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will occur across eastern CO late
tonight into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough over western
CONUS approaches the southern/central High Plains. Mass response at
low levels will encourage the northward transport of Gulf moisture
across parts of east TX into LA and AR today and tonight. Surface
dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s in central AR to near 70 F along
the coast of TX/LA will be present late in the period. Regardless,
a low-level temperature inversion along with negligible deep forcing
for ascent will likely preclude thunderstorm development across
this region through the end of the Day 1 period.
..Gleason/Nauslar.. 11/25/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249
AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal severe
threat are expected to develop on Tuesday from parts of southeast
Texas and Louisiana northward into central Missouri.
...Arklatex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... An impressive
upper-level trough and an associated 100 to 120 kt mid-level jet
are forecast to move quickly east-northeastward across the southern
Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a low should move across Kansas
as a moist airmass advects northward into the Arklatex. Surface
dewpoints may reach 60 F as far north as northern Arkansas with low
to mid 60s F in much of the Arklatex. Weak instability is expected to
develop across the moist sector by midday on Tuesday. In addition,
lift will increase due to the approach of the upper-level system,
which should result in scattered thunderstorm development from
east Texas and Louisiana northward into Arkansas and Missouri
Tuesday afternoon.
NAM and GFS forecast soundings generally increase MLCAPE values
into the 500 to 1000 J/kg during the mid to late afternoon. This,
combined with strong deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level
jet, should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. At this
point, uncertainty is substantial where the greatest severe threat
will be. Model forecasts have the greatest lift and shear across
Arkansas and Missouri but keep the strongest instability across
Louisiana. This disconnect may be problematic, keeping the window
for severe brief. At this point, will go with a marginal risk area
from the western Gulf Coast extending northward into the western
part of the mid Mississippi Valley to cover most of the warm sector.
Once confidence increases concerning moisture return and instability,
a slight risk may need to be added within the marginal risk area.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 11/25/2019
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The older I grow the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings
wisdom.
-- H. L. Mencken
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