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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.02.19 05:22z 98 Lines 4945 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16167_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 10 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190110/0701Z 16167@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.17
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114
PM CST Wed Jan 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from southern
New Mexico into southwest Texas, but no severe weather is expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will eject out
of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast with high pressure shifting east
out of the MS Valley. This will maintain offshore flow across
the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico with low dewpoints. To the west,
a weak area of low pressure will form over the TX Panhandle in
advance of a shortwave trough developing over the Four Corners
region. Southwest winds above a surface stable layer will help
bring elevated moisture and instability into southwest TX, mainly
during the evening and overnight. While some elevated cells are
possible given long, straight hodographs, severe weather is not
expected. However, small hail cannot be ruled out.
..Jewell/Bentley.. 01/10/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145
PM CST Wed Jan 09 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible, mainly across a
portion of the southern Plains and southwest California Friday,
but no severe weather is expected.
...Southern Plains...
Winds will veer to southerly over the western Gulf early Friday in
wake of a large area of high pressure moving through the eastern
states. Modifying continental polar air will advect inland with
dewpoints increasing to low 60s F near the TX coast and 50s farther
inland beneath modest mid-level lapse rates, resulting in weak
(200-400 J/kg) MUCAPE. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing over west TX within zone of ascent along conveyor belt
downstream from a progressive shortwave trough. This activity will
spread through TX and OK during the day, reaching the lower MS Valley
Friday night. Other thunderstorms might also develop closer to the
vorticity maximum across northwest TX during the evening where
steeper mid-level lapse rates will exist. The convection should
remain elevated above a stable surface layer which, in addition to
weak instability, should limit any severe threat.
...Southwest California...
Steep mid-level lapse rates will spread inland Friday night in
association with cold air attending a progressive shortwave trough.
Pre-frontal band of convection will likely develop and move onshore
late in the period when thermal profiles may become sufficient for
a few thunderstorms embedded within a general area of showers.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Dial.. 01/10/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Wed Jan 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis... North winds in a cool and dry post-frontal airmass
will lead to some fire weather concerns in Florida on Thursday. The
greatest concern will be in the southern 1/3rd of the peninsula
where relative humidities are expected to drop below 25 percent
with winds around 10 mph and gusts around 15 mph. In addition,
this area has seen little if any rainfall for the past 2 weeks and
portions are in a moderate drought.
Elsewhere in the CONUS, cool and wet conditions will alleviate fire
weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 01/10/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Wed Jan 09 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday as a cool
and moist low-level airmass dominates the CONUS. Sustained winds
around 20 mph are expected near the southern border of New Mexico,
but relative humidities are expected to remain above 30 percent
and some rain is expected to move across that area Thursday night,
further limiting the threat of large fire spread.
..Bentley.. 01/10/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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"You can't have everything. Where would you put it?"
-- Steven Wright
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