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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.12.19 07:13z 120 Lines 6424 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4582_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 07 12
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 191207/0701Z 4582@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140
PM CST Fri Dec 06 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across
portions of northern California Saturday afternoon.
...Northern CA...
Upper trough off the Pacific coast is forecast to shift east during
the day1 period. As a result, 500mb speed max will translate into
northern CA by 08/00z which should encourage surface confluence zone
across the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. While the primary
surface front should hold offshore through sunset, some instability
is expected to materialize across the Sacramento Valley due to weak
boundary-layer heating. Latest RAP guidance is more buoyant than the
NAM across this region with forecast instability that could allow a
few robust updrafts. RAP 23z forecast sounding at BAB exhibits 800+
J/kg SBCAPE with deep-layer shear supportive of rotating updrafts;
although, NAM displays considerably less instability. If surface
temperatures can warm into the upper 50s/near 60F, convection that
develops north of the 500mb jet will have a tendency to rotate. As
a result, a few weak supercells may ultimately evolve which would
pose a risk of producing a brief weak tornado.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/07/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234
AM CST Sat Dec 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.
...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to
move across the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains
on Sunday. At the same time, a low-amplitude southern-stream
shortwave trough will eject quickly in northern portions of the
southern Plains while another more amplified shortwave trough moves
southward across CA. As a result of this evolution, the overall
upper pattern is expected to undergo substantial deepening and by
early Monday morning upper troughing will likely extend from the
Hudson Bay southwestward through southern CA.
Surface pattern early Sunday will likely feature lee troughing
across the High Plains and high pressure along the East Coast.
Cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains with the
resulting low moving across northern OK overnight Sunday and into
Monday morning. Modest moisture return is anticipated from the TX
Coastal Plain into the Arklatex, although warm temperatures aloft
should preclude deep convection.
Three different regions have some potential for isolated
thunderstorms. The first is from central CA into the Great Basin
where cold mid-level temperatures will support modest instability
amidst persistent forcing for ascent. Thunderstorm coverage in
this area is expected to be over 10%, which merits delineation of
a general thunder areas.
The second area is across the mid MS Valley where gradually
increasing mid-level moisture and persistent forcing for ascent may
result in a few updrafts deep enough to support lightning. However,
coverage is currently expected to remain less than 10%.
The last area is along the Carolina coast where returning low-level
moisture will help support modest instability. Low-level confluence
within this moist environment will result in showers but updrafts
are currently expected to remain too shallow for charge separation
and lightning production.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Mosier.. 12/07/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress
across the southwest CONUS, with a 50+ knot mid-level jet traversing
the Southwest into the southern Plains during the period. Elsewhere
aloft across the lower 48, relatively zonal flow is expected. High
pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern half of
the CONUS, with a low pressure/lee-trough becoming established across
the southern/central High Plains, where generally southwesterly
flow is expected. Brief instances of elevated wind/RH conditions
may be achieved across portions of the southern High Plains (mainly
northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado), but the brevity
of such conditions atop marginally receptive fuels precludes any
elevated delineations at this time.
..Squitieri.. 12/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow across the CONUS will gradually
transition to broad cyclonic flow, as a longwave trough slowly
develops across the northern/central CONUS towards the end of Day
2/Sunday. A smaller-scale mid-level trough will intensify across the
southwest CONUS, with a 70+ knot mid-level jet streak and associated
intensifying surface low traversing the southern Plains. The net
result will be strong westerly flow across the southern High Plains.
Currently, RH appears to be too high (especially given the marginal
receptiveness of fuels) to support an appreciable risk for fire
spread at the moment.
..Squitieri.. 12/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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No prisoner's dilemma here. Over the long term, symbiosis is more useful
than parasitism. More fun, too. Ask any mitochondria.
-- Larry Wall in <199705102042.NAA00851@wall.org>
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