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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.12.19 07:04z 116 Lines 6065 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4735_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 08 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 191208/0701Z 4735@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125
PM CST Sat Dec 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Sunday over
parts of the southwestern states and isolated storms are possible
late near the Carolina coast.
...Southwestern US...
Strong upper trough, currently located along the Pacific coast, will
dig southeast to a position from central CO - southern CA by 09/12z.
As this occurs, strong 500mb jet will sag southeast and vertical
profiles will cool substantially north of the jet. Latest model
guidance allows a corridor of weak instability to develop as lapse
rates steepen, especially during the day when some boundary-layer
heating is expected. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest/deepest
convection will attain heights necessary for lightning, and for
these reasons will maintain at least 10% thunder probabilities
across much of the southwestern US.
...Carolinas...
Weak short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the eastern
Gulf States late in the period to near the NC coast by 09/12z. This
feature should induce a surface trough off the Atlantic coast which
may be drawn inland across eastern NC during the overnight hours.
Weak warm advection and moistening profiles suggest some threat
for lighting with the strongest convection, primarily after 06z.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/08/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232
AM CST Sun Dec 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis... A large and deep upper trough will likely extend from
the Hudson Bay southwestward into southern CA early Monday. This
upper trough is expected to move gradually eastward throughout the
period, as several low-amplitude shortwave troughs progress through
the northern stream, and a more amplified shortwave trough moves
through the southern stream. As the mean trough moves eastward,
westerly/southwesterly flow aloft with strengthen across much of
the central and eastern CONUS. By early Tuesday morning, the upper
trough will likely extend from the Hudson Bay into northern Mexico
with strong mid-level flow (i.e. 90-100 kt at 500 mb) in place from
the mid MS Valley into the upper OH Valley.
The surface pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature a
low near the IA/IL border, with a cold front extending southward
from it into central OK. The low is expected to quickly progress
northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and eastern Ontario
while the attendant cold front sweeps southeastward. By the end
of the period, the cold front will likely extend from western NY
southwestward to the TX Coast.
Modest moisture return will be ongoing across from the TX Gulf Coast
into the Southeast ahead of the cold front. Warm temperatures aloft
are expected to limit instability, but a few thunderstorms are still
possible along and behind the front from southeast TX through the
Mid-South late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Vertical
shear will be strong, but the weak instability should prevent any
storms from reaching severe thresholds.
Lightning is also possible with storms developing within low-level
confluence along the NC coast early Monday morning through the
early afternoon. Robust vertical shear will be in place but the
strongest instability and the more organized storms is expected to
remain offshore.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Mosier.. 12/08/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A longwave positively tilted trough aloft will deepen
across the CONUS throughout the period, accompanied by an 80+ knot
mid-level jet traversing the Southern Plains. As a result, surface
high pressure will move east into the Atlantic, with low-pressure
development across the Plains. Breezy westerly surface conditions
are expected across the central and southern High Plains during the
afternoon hours given a favorable combination of gradient winds
and afternoon boundary-layer heating and downward mixing of the
stronger flow aloft. Nonetheless, fuels are marginal across the
area, and surface RH is expected to be too high to support large
wildfire-spread threats.
..Squitieri.. 12/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... As a mature longwave trough moves across the CONUS
during the Day 2/Monday period, high pressure and colder air will
spill across much of the central and northern CONUS. The cooler
temperatures atop marginally receptive fuels, and potentially
accumulating precipitation in the southern Plains suggest that
large wildfire-growth potential will be negligible through Day 2.
..Squitieri.. 12/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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