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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.12.19 07:07z 85 Lines 4535 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4803_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 09 12
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<LU4ECL<CT1ENI<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 191209/0701Z @:LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM #:4803 LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129
PM CST Sun Dec 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis... A positively tilted large-scale 500 mb trough
will progress across the central and eastern CONUS, coincident
with a rapidly deepening surface low which will eject into the
upper-Hudson Valley by the end of Day 1/Monday, with multiple areas
of thunderstorms possible across the eastern third of the CONUS,
where marginal buoyancy can materialize. Elsewhere, a mid-level
shortwave trough will traverse the southwest CONUS, where deep-layer
ascent and cold air aloft (promoting marginal instability) may
serve as a focus for isolated thunderstorm development.
...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley... A strong cold front will
accompany the aforementioned low, inducing convergence/low-level
lift to eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into the northern
Appalachians. Broad 850 mb WAA beneath steep (7.5+ C/km) mid-level
lapse rates will promote marginal buoyancy (150 J/kg MUCAPE), with
convective showers and a few lightning flashes possible with the
more intense cells, mainly within the 00-06Z time frame.
...Portions of the mid-South... Richer low-level moisture will
be present ahead of the cold front, with surface temperatures
warming into the 60s/70s and dewpoints exceeding 60 F through the
day. Strong 850 mb WAA is also likely atop and behind the cold front,
driven by the approach of the smaller 500 mb shortwave trough to the
west. Marginally unstable air parcels into the post-frontal regime
will promote isolated thunderstorm activity late in the period
(03-12Z).
...North Carolina Coastline... Isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible along the North Carolina Coast, along the western periphery
of a low-level moist axis of confluence ahead of the large-scale
mid-level trough. The best time for storms would be during the
first half of the period, as a small, embedded mid-level impulse
briefly enhances deep-layer ascent across the area.
...Portions of the Southwest... 500 mb temperatures dropping below
-20C will contribute to a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates of
7.5+ C/km, which will translate eastward with the aforementioned 500
mb shortwave trough, supporting isolated thunderstorm potential in
southern parts of Arizona/New Mexico during the day, and Far West
Texas later in the period.
..Squitieri.. 12/09/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105
PM CST Sun Dec 08 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated on Tuesday.
...Synopsis... A longwave trough and cyclonically curved mid/upper
flow will exist across much of the central and eastern U.S.
Meanwhile, a weakening shortwave trough across the southern Plains
will migrate eastward across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley
through the forecast period.
At the surface, a broad area of high pressure will expand southward
across the Plains and vicinity, spreading cool and stable air across
much of the CONUS. A cold front initially near the western Gulf
Coast will migrate eastward and assist in promoting thunderstorm
development spreading from west to east across the southern U.S.
Severe weather is not expected given meager mid-level lapse rates
and weak low-level shear.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Cook.. 12/09/2019
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I believe it would be beneficial to all involved."
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