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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.12.19 07:03z 65 Lines 3162 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4878_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 10 12
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 191210/0701Z 4878@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121
PM CST Mon Dec 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday across
the contiguous United States.
...Discussion...
Well-defined upper vort/low, centered just south of the international
border west of ELP, is forecast to deamplify and shift east across
TX during the day1 period. With large-scale high-level confluence
expected to focus over the mid-South, surface cold front will be
forced off the Gulf/Southeast coasts as high pressure builds across
lower latitudes. This flow regime should prevent true maritime
tropical air mass from advancing inland ahead of the front and
subsequent moisture/instability is expected to remain rather weak
through the period. As a result, majority of convection will
likely be somewhat elevated and likely post frontal in nature.
Additionally, thunderstorms should remain mostly isolated and the
threat for severe is low given the weak buoyancy.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/10/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Mon Dec 09 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across central
and southern Florida Thursday.
...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will continue to be
limited mostly to central and southern Florida along and ahead of
a southwardly moving cold front. Surface heating within a moist
airmass (characterized by 60s to 70F dewpoints) will allow for weak
buoyancy to develop despite marginal mid-level lapse rates. Shear
profiles will also be weak, limiting any broader-scale severe risk.
Farther west, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will migrate through
the base of a larger trough centered over the Gulf of Alaska
and result in areas of precipitation along the Washington State
coastline and vicinity. Falling heights and cooling aloft should
result in enough weak buoyancy aloft for a couple of lightning
strikes especially over open waters. Elsewhere, cool and stable
low-level air of continental origin will limit thunder potential.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Cook.. 12/10/2019
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One man's constant is another man's variable.
-- A. J. Perlis
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