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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.12.19 07:03z 88 Lines 4702 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4956_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 11 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 191211/0701Z 4956@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116
PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.
...Synopsis... A large-scale mid-level trough will move off of
the Atlantic Seaboard today, with high pressure ushering in behind
a cold front across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Farther
west, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Rockies into the
Plains states by the end of the period, with a more potent mid-level
wave and associated surface trough approaching the Pacific Northwest.
...Florida Peninsula... The trailing portion of a cold front will
gradually move southeastward across the Florida Peninsula, where at
least modest instability (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots) will be
in place. Convergence along the cold front, coupled with diurnal
heating, will encourage at least isolated thunderstorm development
through the late morning and afternoon hours.
...Louisiana/Mississippi Coastline and adjacent waters... Despite
the passage of the surface front, 850 mb frontogenesis will support
banded-precipitation, perhaps with a few convective elements along
and just offshore the Louisiana/Mississippi Coastlines. Though
instability is quite meager, enough elevated MUCAPE in the -20
to -30C layer may support a couple lightning strikes early in
the period.
...Portions of the Washington Coastline... The approach of the
aforementioned mid-level wave later in the period will result in
steepening mid-level lapse rates (7.5+ C/km) across portions of
the Washington Coastline and adjacent waters. Here, deep-layer
ascent will also increase with the approach of a surface trough by
00Z. Multiple guidance members hint at some instability across the
area, with the 03Z RAP being the most aggressive member (depicting up
to 400 J/kg MUCAPE). In addition, adequate deep-layer and low-level
shear may support an isolated gust or two.
..Squitieri.. 12/11/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233
AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
across portions of the Deep South and central Gulf Coast eastward
to the Florida Peninsula.
...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected to persist
across the CONUS on Friday with a low-amplitude, southern-stream
shortwave trough progressing quickly from the central/southern Plains
into the TN Valley. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly
in its wake, moving from the Great Basin into the central/southern
Plains. This second shortwave will move along the leading edge of
an extensive area of enhanced mid-level flow, which is expected to
extend from the northeast Pacific Ocean into the southern Plains
by early Friday.
The surface pattern Thursday morning will likely feature an expansive
ridge over much of the eastern CONUS with a small cyclone over
the mid MO Valley. Both of these features are expected to shift
northeastward as the previously mentioned southern-stream shortwave
trough approaches the TN Valley. Moisture return ahead of this system
will be muted by persistent northeasterly/easterly surface winds,
but strong warm-air advection will still likely result in isolated
to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
AL, GA, and SC. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across FL
during the day.
Isolated thunderstorms may also occur along the Pacific Northwest
coast, where numerous perturbations within the strong flow aloft
will provide persistent forcing for ascent and cold mid-level
temperatures will foster weak instability.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Mosier.. 12/11/2019
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finlandia:~> apropos win win: nothing appropriate.
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