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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.12.19 07:04z 122 Lines 6544 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5087_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 13 12
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 191213/0700Z 5087@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200
AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts
and a couple of tornadoes are possible over northern Florida into
southeast Georgia mainly later this evening into tonight.
...Central and Northern Florida into southeast Georgia...
The next in a series of shortwave troughs accompanied by a strong
upper jet will amplify over the Gulf Coast region this evening as
it moves into the base of the synoptic trough. A downstream warm
front will advance inland along the Gulf Coast into northern FL
and southern GA with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. However, only
modest instability is expected in warm sector with 800-1200 J/kg
MLCAPE due to weak mid-level lapse rates. In wake of lead shortwave
trough moving through early today, a general decrease in thunderstorm
coverage is expected in this region during the day. However, forcing
for ascent attending the next upstream shortwave trough will likely
contribute to intensification of the low-level jet and redevelopment
of storms in vicinity of the warm front and pre-frontal confluent
zone later this evening. This activity will spread east through
northern FL and southern GA tonight. Wind profiles will strengthen
with 0-1 km storm relative helicity increasing to 150-250 m2/s2
along with 40+ kt effective bulk shear. Storms developing in this
environment will likely be near surface based with potential for
a few bowing segments and supercells capable of isolated damaging
wind and a couple of tornadoes.
..Dial/Bentley.. 12/13/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228
AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Florida
peninsula northward through the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastal
vicinity on Saturday.
...Synopsis... A mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to the
Southeast will pivot east/northeast across the eastern U.S. on
Saturday. In the wake of the trough, mainly zonal, westerly flow
will overspread much of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is
forecast to be centered near the northern Chesapeake Bay vicinity
with a cold front extending south/southwest along the coastal
Carolinas into northern FL. 60s F dewpoints will be in place across
most of the FL peninsula and, perhaps the NC Outer Banks, ahead
of the front. A few strong storms are possible ahead of the front,
but will likely be east of the immediate coastal vicinity from SC
to MD over the warmer offshore waters.
The exception may be further south across parts of the northern to
central FL peninsula during the first couple of hours of the period,
as some severe threat may be ongoing/persist Saturday morning from
near SGJ to CGC, southward to near XMR and TPA. Forecast soundings
show effective shear values greater than 40 kt across much of the
peninsula, with increasing speed shear through the lowest 1-2 km
resulting in small, curved low-level hodographs. MLCAPE as high as
1000 J/kg with moderate midlevel lapse rates also will be in place.
In the immediate area of the front, a strong storm cannot be ruled
out in the first couple hours of the period. However, subsidence
quickly increases as the mid/upper trough pivots east of the area
by late morning. Additionally, upper forcing will be quite weak, as
will frontal convergence. Altogether, this will limit both longevity
and aerial coverage of severe potential. As a result, confidence is
too low to identify a narrow corridor of short-lived, marginal severe
potential and will be largely dependent on the speed of the ejecting
mid/upper trough and surface cold front location Saturday morning.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Leitman.. 12/13/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A moderate mid-level jet streak will overspread
the southern High Plains today. Deep mixing during the afternoon
will transport some of these stronger mid-level winds toward the
surface with wind speeds increasing to 15 to 25 mph in eastern
Colorado and New Mexico. Minimum relative humidity is expected to
bottom around 20 to 30 percent. Given these relative humidities
combined with marginal fuel conditions, no elevated fire weather
area is justified. Elsewhere, moist and/or cool fuel/atmospheric
conditions will limit the large fire threat.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A moderate mid-level jet will remain over the
Southwest on Saturday. Throughout the day, afternoon heating will
mix some of these stronger winds toward the surface. This deep mixing
combined with a strengthening pressure gradient from a developing
cyclone in Colorado will increase surface winds to around 20 to 25
mph in eastern New Mexico. Minimum relative humidity across this
region will be in the 25 to 35 percent range which will preclude the
need for an elevated area. Cool/wet conditions across the remainder
of the CONUS will limit the overall fire weather threat.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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