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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.12.19 07:02z 143 Lines 7729 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 16 12
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154
PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast
beginning midday today over Louisiana and peaking during the late
afternoon/evening from northeast Louisiana into central Mississippi
and into Alabama late. A few tornadoes and damaging gusts are the
primary hazards.
...Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley... A mid-level shortwave
trough near the TX-OK Panhandles this morning will slightly weaken as
it moves to the lower MO Valley by early Tuesday morning. A surface
front extending from east TX northeastward into the lower TN Valley
is forecast to sag south/east through the lower MS Valley and into
AL. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop over northern
LA by early afternoon and migrate northeast into TN after dusk.
Sunday night surface observations over the northwest Gulf Coast
indicate a very moist airmass (dewpoints near 70 degrees F) has
infiltrated the coastal plain of the upper TX coast and southwest LA.
A relatively pristine convective scenario is forecast to unfold
beginning by the late morning-midday timeframe in the vicinity
of the Sabine Valley and gradually spread northeast during the
afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes. The combination of
diurnal heating and continued moistening at the base of a weakening
capping inversion will gradually lead to convective development by
early afternoon. It appears thunderstorms will preferentially favor
the front but discrete warm sector initiation appears plausible
mainly in a corridor from central into northeast LA. Strong and
veering low- to mid-level flow fields are forecast across the
Enhanced Risk. Forecast hodographs show some tendency for some
minor veer-back-veer structure around 700mb which may dampen a
more favorable hodograph/storm rotation potential. Nonetheless,
forecast soundings show a moist boundary layer with MLCAPE ranging
from 1500 J/kg across LA into central MS with decreasing CAPE with
northeast/east extent. Consequently, a fanning of lower severe
probabilities are forecast from north-central MS northeastward into
TN and the northern half of AL.
Large hail may accompany the stronger cores where the risk for
discrete updrafts is highest and where 700-500mb lapse rates
are 7-8 degrees C/km over LA and parts of MS. The tornado risk
will probably maximize during the afternoon/evening over LA as
quasi-discrete activity develops and moves northeast into MS.
A gradual consolidation/merging of storms will lead to the risk
for damaging gusts increasing concurrent with upscale growth.
..Smith/Bentley.. 12/16/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245
AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the Southeast to the coastal Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.
...Southeast to the Eastern Carolinas...
A mid/upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to the southern
Plains at the beginning of the period will deepen and spread eastward
across the eastern third of the CONUS on Tuesday. An elongated
surface low will be located over the central Appalachians Tuesday
morning and quickly lift northeast to the offshore waters east of
New England by 00z. A trailing cold front extending south/southwest
from the surface low into southeast AL and the north-central Gulf
Coast will shift eastward across the southeastern U.S., moving
offshore the southeastern coast around 00z.
Rich boundary-layer moisture will reside ahead of the surface cold
front, with mid 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as coastal
SC/NC. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along/ahead of the
front at the beginning of the period and abundant cloud cover is
expected downstream, limiting surface heating. Additionally, better
plume of midlevel lapse rates will reside well northeast of the
region. As such, instability will remain weak, generally less than
500 J/kg MLCAPE (except near the eastern FL Panhandle into southern
GA, where values may be as high as 1000 J/kg). As the surface low
quickly lifts northeast, low level flow will weaken. Furthermore,
frontal convergence will be poor, with veered low-level winds
forecast in addition to deep-layer flow parallel to the frontal
boundary. As the system continues to lift northeast through the
morning and afternoon, upper forcing will diminish and the stronger
southwesterly low-level jet over the region early in the period will
quickly become displaced from better moisture/instability near the
Gulf of Mexico. While a strong storm or two cannot be completely
ruled out, especially from the eastern FL Panhandle into southeast
GA, severe potential appears too limited/conditional to include
Marginal probs.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Leitman.. 12/16/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A strong surface high will settle in the Great
Basin and Central Rockies today. This will lead to offshore flow
across much of California, but a cold air mass and wet fuels due
to recent precipitation across most of the state will alleviate any
fire weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or wet
conditions will preclude the threat for large fires.
..Bentley.. 12/16/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Strong high pressure will remain over the Great
Basin and central Rockies on Tuesday, which will maintain offshore
flow across most of the West Coast. Cool conditions are expected
to continue, which combined with moist fuels across the region,
will limit the overall fire weather threat. Elsewhere in the CONUS,
cool and/or wet conditions will be present which will subdue fire
weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 12/16/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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And they shall beat their swords into plowshares, for if you hit a man with
a plowshare, he's going to know he's been hit.
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