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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.12.19 18:35z 96 Lines 4848 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5370_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 18 12
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<ED1ZAC<IZ3LSV<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<CT1ENI<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 191218/0700Z 5370@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144
PM CST Tue Dec 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across south Florida
through midday Wednesday. Severe storms are not expected.
...Discussion... A cold front will move south across the Florida
peninsula today. Some storms will form along and ahead of the cold
front in an environment featuring 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. The
combination of weak mid-level lapse rates, the propensity for
frontal storms to be undercut by the front, and relatively weak
(25 kts) effective shear, will limit the severe weather threat
with any storms which develop in south Florida. The front should
move south of Florida by mid-afternoon which should bring an end
to thunderstorms in the region.
Cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some shallow convection off
the Washington coast Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Any
deeper convection with better potential for lightning should remain
well offshore where relatively warm waters and cooler temperatures
aloft increase instability, but a flash or two cannot be ruled out
along the northern Washington coast by early Thursday morning.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233
AM CST Wed Dec 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and a building upper
ridge will bring dry, stable conditions to much of the country
east of the Mississippi River. An upper trough across the western
U.S. will move over the Rockies, with the northern branch spreading
across the northern/central Plains while a closed low develops in
the southern branch of the trough over the southern Rockies. Ahead
of the upper trough, southerly low level flow will develop across
the southern Plains. However, Gulf moisture return will be limited
by the cold front earlier in the week that penetrated deep into
the Bay of Campeche/southern Mexico. As such, thunderstorms are not
expected with this system through early Friday morning. Elsewhere,
moist onshore flow and several weak perturbations migrating across
the Pacific Northwest will result in widespread precipitation across
the region. While a lightning flash or two can not be entirely
ruled out near the coast, instability will largely be too meager
to support thunderstorms.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Leitman.. 12/18/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... High pressure with cold temperatures will dominate
most of the country today with some rain and mountain snow along
the West Coast. This pattern will result in minimal fire weather
concerns across the CONUS.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Cold and/or wet conditions will alleviate fire
weather concerns across most of the country on Thursday. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move across the southern Rockies during the
afternoon which will lead to some weak lee cyclogenesis across
eastern Colorado. This will strengthen the pressure gradient and
lead to some dry and breezy conditions from the TX/OK panhandles
northward into western Kansas. Despite somewhat favorable
meteorological conditions, recent wetting rainfall across this
region has left fuels unfavorable and therefore, the large fire
threat will be minimal.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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The Shuttle is now going five times the sound of speed.
-- Dan Rather, first landing of Columbia
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