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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.12.19 07:02z 73 Lines 3783 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5426_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 19 12
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK4TUB<ZL2BAU<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 191219/0701Z 5426@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124
PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today.
High pressure will prevail across most of the CONUS today. A
mid-level shortwave trough will be moving across the central Rockies
during the afternoon, which will lead to some lee cyclogenesis in
eastern Colorado. However, the air mass across the region is very
dry, and thus no thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in the Pacific Northwest,
but relatively warm temperatures aloft will limit instability and
mitigate the potential for thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms are expected south of the Florida Keys throughout
the day, but this convection should remain well offshore.
..Bentley.. 12/19/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CST Thu Dec 19 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon
and evening near the Florida Keys, as well as Friday night across
portions of southern Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis... A mid/upper trough over the Plains will become
increasingly bifurcated on Friday as the northern branch of
the trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile,
a mid/upper level low will develop in the southern branch over
the southern Plains and slowly migrate eastward across OK/TX by
Saturday morning. At the surface, strong surface high pressure will
maintain continental trajectories across most of the CONUS east of
the MS River, resulting in dry/stable conditions. The exception
will be over the FL peninsula where northeasterly low level flow
will become more easterly as a weak trough develops ahead of the
Plains upper low. The best chance for thunderstorms in this regime
appears to be over the Florida Straits, offshore from the Peninsula,
through a few cells could approach the Florida Keys during the
afternoon into Friday night as a southeasterly low level jet and
modest forcing spreads over the eastern Gulf. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected at this time due to expected poor lapse rates and
weak flow from 700-500 mb, which will limit organized convection.
To the west, moisture return across the western Gulf into the
southern Plains will be more modest and take more time as a cold
front in prior days developed as far south as southern Mexico.
Nevertheless, boundary layer moisture should increase sufficiently
to support isolated elevated convection ahead of the mid/upper
trough across parts of southern TX Friday night. Severe storms
are not expected at this time due to weak instability and modest
vertical shear.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Leitman.. 12/19/2019
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"I don't care who does the electing as long as I get to do the nominating."
-- Boss Tweed
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