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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.12.19 07:03z 95 Lines 5134 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5647_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 22 12
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 191222/0700Z 5647@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057
PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across the Keys and southern Florida, and toward the eastern coast
into Monday morning. A brief tornado or two will be possible.
...Florida... A compact upper low with tight midlevel temperature
gradient will deepen as it moves from the Sabine River toward the
western FL Panhandle. Moderate southwesterly winds aloft, as well as
southerly winds just off the surface, will be maintained throughout
the period.
A cold front will push east across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during
the day, affecting the western FL Peninsula during the evening.
Initially, the air mass will be cool and relatively stable for
surface-based parcels, although elevated instability will support
general thunderstorms and rain for much of the region. A distinct
band of warm advection at 850 mb will swing north during the day into
AL and GA, and will support non-severe, elevated thunderstorms.
By evening, dewpoints in the 68-70 F range will envelop much
of southern and eastern FL, mainly south of a Cape Canaveral to
Orlando line.
Periodic strong storms will likely be ongoing offshore southwest
of Naples and north of the Keys, with a gradual increase in storm
potential over far southern FL as moisture increases into the
evening, driven mainly by warm advection. There is uncertainty
regarding how unstable the air mass will get, but veering winds with
height in the low-levels may support rotating storms, and perhaps
a short-lived tornado or two. Additional activity may affect the
eastern FL coast later in the evening/overnight, with a tornado
possible within any potential confluence bands.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 12/22/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated storms will be possible Monday across parts
of Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas. Other storms may occur
over portions of coastal southern California and the Southwest.
...Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas... Latest guidance
suggests that a band of thunderstorms will probably be just
offshore the FL Atlantic Coast by 12Z Monday morning. As an upper
low initially centered over southern AL and the FL Panhandle moves
eastward through the day, a cold front will likewise shift eastward
off the FL Coast. At this point, the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms remaining over land for the first few hours of the
period (12-15Z) appears too low to include any severe probabilities
for coastal southeast FL. Low-level flow should also quickly veer
to southwesterly across this region Monday morning, further limiting
vertical shear and an organized severe risk.
Additional storms may occur beneath the upper low Monday afternoon
across parts of northern FL and southern GA as mid/upper-level
temperatures will be quite cold. Isolated storms will also be
possible across parts of GA and coastal NC/SC as strong low-level
warm advection occurs to the north and east of a surface low. Weak,
elevated instability is expected to preclude a severe risk with
this activity.
...Coastal Southern California into the Southwest... Within
large-scale upper troughing over the eastern Pacific and western
CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough should migrate slowly
inland across parts of CA and towards the western Great Basin and
Southwest by the end of the period. Mid-level temperatures are
forecast to cool with the approach of this trough, and isolated
lightning flashes appear possible with elevated convection along/near
the coast of southern CA. Mid-level moisture should increase across
parts of the lower CO River Valley and western AZ late Monday night,
and a couple elevated storms may occur here as large-scale ascent
preceding the upper trough overspreads this region. Very weak
instability is expected across both areas.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Gleason.. 12/22/2019
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The greatest disloyalty one can offer to great pioneers is to refuse to move
an inch from where they stood.
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