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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.12.19 07:03z 212 Lines 10948 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5698_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 23 12
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 191223/0700Z 5698@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 706 TORNADO FL CW 230145Z - 231000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 706
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of South Florida including the Keys
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 845 PM until
500 AM EST.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of rotating thunderstorms off the southwest
coast of Florida will track slowly eastward late this evening and
overnight, affecting the watch area. The strongest cells will pose
a risk of tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Key West FL to
45 miles southeast of West Palm Beach FL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm
motion vector 22025.
...Hart
WW 0706 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 706
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW MTH TO
20 NNW MTH TO 35 NNW MTH TO 55 WSW MIA TO 25 W PBI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229.
..EDWARDS..12/23/19
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 706
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-086-087-099-230640-
FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD MIAMI-DADE MONROE PALM BEACH
AMZ630-650-651-670-671-GMZ031-032-042-043-044-052-053-054-657-
230640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
MD 2229 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 706... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL
AND KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 2229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019
Areas affected...Portions of south FL and Keys
Concerning...Tornado Watch 706...
Valid 230506Z - 230700Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 706 continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for a couple tornadoes and isolated damaging
winds continues for most of the FL Keys, but will decrease from west
to east over the next few hours. The threat meanwhile will increase
across the southeastern mainland in the Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm
Beach Counties corridor.
DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalysis shows a cold front, extending from
an occlusion triple point south-southwest of PIE, across the extreme
eastern Gulf west of the Keys. A slow-moving warm front was drawn
near Marco Island and across the southern Everglades, then arching
up the I-95 corridor roughly from HST-MIA to between PBI-SUA.
Over the Big Cypress/Everglades, this boundary is diffused by a
large area of precip located north of a quasilinear, warm-sector MCS.
The MCS was evident at 05Z from near Cape Sable south-southwestward
across the 7-Mile Bridge and approaching MTH, then over the adjoining
Straits of Florida.
The primary severe potential will be associated with this complex
as it moves east-northeastward up the Keys, Florida Bay, southern
Everglades, and perhaps into the metro corridor from abut PBI
southward over the next several hours. Embedded supercells and
small bowing segments will pose the greatest local severe threat.
However, isolated supercell development is possible in the gradually
destabilizing environment ahead of the MCS as well. Comparison of
00Z and 03Z MFL soundings shows steady destabilization of low levels
amidst weak midlevel lapse rates. Accordingly modified model
forecast soundings, upstream surface observations, and near-term
planar progs indicate sufficient boundary-layer theta-e advection
from the straits across the upper Keys and coastal HST-PBI corridor
to support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE before the main MCS passes. VAD wind
hodographs from the AMX radar also have been enlarging across the
region, and 200-350 J/kg effective SRH may develop in the pre-MCS
warm sector through 09Z.
..Edwards.. 12/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...
LAT...LON 26968004 26578000 25718011 25288026 24958053 24678104
24778125 24738113 24768097 24908076 24988079 25018100 25088117
25228114 25498122 25838139 25898104 25648089 25708072 25808059
26178046 26498041 26828023 26988010 26977996 26968004
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133
PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected from central
Florida into South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected,
but gusty winds may occur from Tampa to Cape Canaveral during
the afternoon.
...Synopsis... The primary feature of interest today will be an
upper low which will move across the FL Panhandle and across central
and northern portions of the state. Preceding this feature early
in the period, a cold front will be near the east coast of FL,
with associated showers or thunderstorms. Any lingering severe
threat from the previous period will quickly move offshore.
Behind the front, strong cooling aloft will occur with the upper low
north of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon. Showers and shallow
thunderstorms are likely to materialize over the Gulf of Mexico,
and quickly move east across central/northern FL. This activity may
produce locally gusty winds as 30-35 kt 850 mb winds translate to
the surface. Weak instability will be the main mitigating factor,
and severe storms are not expected. Southern portions of this
activity are unlikely to contain lightning due to the midlevel
inversion south of the midlevel jet core.
Elsewhere, elevated instability associated with moisture wrapping
north of the low will support a few storms into SC, but severe
weather is not expected due to a cool low-level air mass rendering
impressive low-level shear ineffective over land.
..Jewell.. 12/23/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252
AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday across
portions of the Southwest. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough
will eject northeastward across the Southwest Tuesday, eventually
de-amplifying as it encounters confluent mid-level flow over
the Plains late in the period. Although low-level moisture is
expected to remain quite limited over AZ/NM, strong forcing for
ascent will overspread this region. Weak instability may exist
through mainly Tuesday afternoon as mid-level temperatures cool in
tandem with the northeastward-moving shortwave trough. Accordingly,
isolated thunderstorms may occur across portions of AZ and far
southwestern NM.
Another upper trough should approach the West Coast late in the
period. Isolated convective potential associated with this trough
should remain offshore through early Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of
the CONUS owing to generally dry and/or stable conditions.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Gleason.. 12/23/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A highly amplified trough along the West Coast
will progress eastward today. By the afternoon, modestly enhanced
southerly/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern High
Plains. 00Z Monday soundings from the region already indicate a
fairly dry low-level airmass in place. By tomorrow afternoon, in
spite of high level cloud cover, weak boundary-layer mixing and
modest downslope flow will warm and dry the surface further. RH
values may approach 10% in some locations with 15-20% more commonly
observed. Both 1- and 10-hour fuels are supportive of fire spread
per latest available fuel guidance. The limiting factor will be the
generally light winds, only 10-15 mph, induced by lee troughing in
the central High Plains. With the upper-level winds continuing to
lag behind peak heating, confidence is reduced in more than locally
elevated conditions occurring. Areas with the greatest potential
for briefly elevated conditions are from the Canadian River Valley
in New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity.
..Wendt.. 12/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... For D2/Tuesday, the upper-level shortwave trough
across the West Coast will pivot through the Southwest into the
central Plains, losing amplitude with time. Broad upper-level
troughing will remain across the West. A band of enhanced mid-level
southwesterly flow will develop within the southern High Plains by
late afternoon with a nearly stationary lee trough in the central
High Plains. While surface winds are expected to increase across
eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles as compared
to the previous day, influx of Pacific moisture is expected to keep
boundary-layer RH above 20% in most locations.
..Wendt.. 12/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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I had the rare misfortune of being one of the first people to try and
implement a PL/1 compiler.
-- T. Cheatham
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