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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.02.19 05:23z 106 Lines 5578 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17121_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 23 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<IK6ZDE<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<
N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190123/0701Z 17121@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128
PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected
along portions of the central Gulf coast with some severe threat
surrounding this area as far east as the northern Florida Peninsula
late in the period.
...Gulf States...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-latitude short-wave
trough over far west TX/northern Mexico digging east-southeast
toward the TX coast. Thunderstorms have recently developed ahead of
this feature in response to large-scale forcing for ascent that is
spreading across south-central TX. Latest guidance suggest strong
mid-level height falls will develop across the central Gulf States
ahead of this feature which should encourage a weak surface low to
evolve along associated cold front over the lower MS Valley early in
the period. Boundary-layer moisture is not particularly high across
the central Gulf coast but should increase during the morning hours
with mid 60s possible prior to frontal passage. Latest thinking
is a forced line of storms should evolve along the wind shift by
mid-late morning then advance east ahead of the progressive trough.
Strengthening shear profiles will favor sustained organized squall
line that should advance toward the FL Panhandle by late afternoon.
While storm mode should be primarily linear, a few supercells could
evolve immediately ahead of the line, or embedded within the frontal
convection. Locally damaging winds are the primary threat but one
or two tornadoes could develop near the coast. During the overnight
hours, low-level trajectories will become more favorable for somewhat
higher theta-e air mass to return to the FL Peninsula. This air mass
recovery will prove favorable for continuation of frontal squall
line and attendant severe threat with strongly sheared convection.
..Darrow/Gleason.. 01/23/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120
PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are likely across the Florida Peninsula
on Thursday, with isolated strong to severe wind gusts possible
mainly early in the day. A few storms may affect the outer banks
of North Carolinas as well.
...Synopsis... An intense and meridional jet max will approach the
East Coast on Thursday with a 100 kt midlevel southerly flow and 850
winds increasing to 60-80 kts ahead of a cold front. Instability will
be meager in most areas, with the greatest chance of thunderstorms
over Florida. By midday on Thursday, the front will be mostly
offshore, ending any thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a vast area
of cool, dry air will infiltrate the rest of the nation behind this
front, with multiple bouts of high pressure shifting southward out
of Canada and into the Plains.
...Florida... Strong low-level wind profiles will exist coincident
with showers and storms along a weakening cold front from Tampa to
Jacksonville on Thursday. Instability looks to be marginal with
MLCAPE generally in the 500-750 J/kg vicinity, and large-scale
support will be decreasing with time as the shortwave trough ejects
away from the region. This will also cause low-level winds to quickly
veer to westerly, with decreasing storm chances during the day. A
few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out early on Thursday with
decreasing severe chances during the afternoon.
...Eastern North Carolina... Wind profiles will become very strong
on Thursday ahead of a cold front which will move offshore after
12-18Z. Models depict southwesterly 850 mb winds to around 75
kt before veering with the frontal passage, but model consensus
is that the near-surface layer to be relatively cool and stable,
possibly only supporting shallow, partially elevated convection
with little lightning. If subsequent model runs show increasing
trends regarding low-level instability, severe probabilities could
be added for eastern North Carolina.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Jewell.. 01/23/2019
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121
PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will not occur across the lower 48
states on Friday.
...Synopsis... An upper low will be centered over northern Ontario
with an expansive area of cyclonic flow aloft enveloping much of
central and eastern North America. This will maintain high pressure
at the surface with offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and
Atlantic, with no threat of thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 01/23/2019
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